Bitcoin’s technical picture
The technical picture has consequently weakened from the September peak, although the broader recovery has not necessarily been invalidated.
The first important support area – the former May-to-early-September resistance zone at $82,814.03-to-$82,035.16, now because of inverse polarity, support zone – has given way and allowed Bitcoin to drop to $80,324.53 on Thursday before recovering on Friday.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the psychological $80,000 mark is important because it represents the main breakout zone from the September advance. A sustained move below it would suggest that the breakout has failed and would increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
Above the market, the 5 October high at $86,976.80 is the first level that needs to be reclaimed to improve short-term momentum.
A sustained move back above that level would put the September high at $87,402.34 back in focus. Above $87,402, the psychological $90,000 level would become the next major target, followed by the January high at $97,913.08 and ultimately the $100,000 threshold.
On the downside, a decisive break below $82,035 would increase the risk of a move towards the September low at $74,919.36.
Coinbase Institutional similarly identified the area around $81,300 as the approximate break-even level for the US spot ETF cohort, arguing that a weekly close below that area would make the setup more defensive.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 5 October high at $86,976.80
Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 15 September low at $74,919.36