What next for Bitcoin?
From a technical perspective, the key question is whether the current retreat remains contained above the September breakout area.
The May-to-early September highs at $82,814.03-to-$82,035.16 represent the first important test. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above this area would keep the recent breakout structure broadly intact, while a recovery through the 25 September high at $85,226.96 would improve short-term momentum.
Above the September $87,402.34 peak, attention would return to the next psychological levels, with $90,000 becoming an obvious target. A sustained move through $90,000 could then put the January high at $97,913.08 and ultimately the $100,000 level back into focus.
On the downside, a break below the $82,814.03-to-$82,035.16 area would make the retracement more significant and could bring the September low at $74,919.36 back into view.
For now, the strength of last week’s ETF flows is an important counterweight to the pullback. Bitcoin has retraced from $87,402, but it has done so while more than $2.4 billion flowed into US spot ETFs.
That leaves the current move looking more like a test of the September rally than a clear rejection of it. The key issue for the next stage will be whether ETF demand remains strong enough to absorb profit-taking and macro pressure, allowing Bitcoin to stabilise and eventually challenge its recent high again.
Short-term outlook: neutral while above the 20 September low at $80,095.02, a rise above the 25 September high at $85,226.96 would be bullish
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 15 September low at $74,919.36