With commodity price volatility, shifting demand dynamics and a company-wide transformation agenda all in play, BP’s full-year results will be closely watched for insight into operational execution, capital allocation and future growth pathways.
BP is expected to report lower revenue, pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) compared to full-year 2024 results.
- Revenue: $184.78 billion, around 5% below its FY 2024 $194.63 billion result
- Pre-tax profit: $14.45 billion, around 13% lower compared to a year ago
- EPS: 48 cents, around 8.5% lower than a year ago
Production volumes and commodity prices drive upstream
Investors will be looking first at production volumes and realised commodity prices, the backbone of BP’s upstream performance.
In its interim and trading updates through 2025, BP reported resilient hydrocarbon production, supported by strong contributions from key assets including the Gulf of Mexico and Azerbaijan’s offshore fields.
Oil trading prices, having retraced from prior highs, still delivered favourable realised prices relative to the long-term average, while gas markets were more mixed – stronger in Europe and Asia but softer in parts of the US and Middle East. The full-year results will reveal whether this pattern persisted through the closing months of 2025 and how resource mix and hedging strategies influenced revenue and earnings.
Integrated model balances cyclical exposures
Revenue, earnings and margins will be core focal points. BP’s integrated model – spanning upstream exploration and production, downstream refining and marketing, and a growing set of convenience and mobility businesses – means results will reflect a blend of cyclical energy market dynamics and structural operational performance.
Refining margins, in particular, have been a key swing factor in recent quarterly updates, with volatility reflecting changes in global fuel demand and inventory cycles. Investors will be aiming to understand whether downstream profit contributions strengthened, softened or remained range-bound through the full year.
Cash generation funds shareholder returns
Beyond traditional oil and gas metrics, BP’s return-on-capital and cash flow generation will draw substantial attention. The company has been vocal about its emphasis on strong free cash flow as the driver of dividends and buybacks, while still funding disciplined capital expenditure and transition investments.
In 2025, BP maintained a progressive dividend policy backed by periodic share repurchases – a combination that appeals to income-oriented investors and supports valuation stability.
The full-year results should provide updated figures on free cash flow conversion, net debt levels and capital allocation priorities for 2026.
Renewable energy transition progress
Renewables and low-carbon segments will be another strategic area of focus. BP has publicly committed to scaling its renewable energy footprint – including wind, solar and bioenergy – as part of its energy transformation pathway.
Analyst expectations are evolving to emphasise not only the pace of operational rollout in renewables but also the financial contribution of these assets.
Analysts are broadly split on BP, with around half having a ‘buy’ rating and half a ‘hold’ rating, averaging a long-term consensus price target of 476p, around current levels as of 6 February 2026, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.