Broadcom Q1 2026 earnings preview: AI growth vs margin risk


When is Broadcom reporting earnings?

Broadcom is scheduled to release its first-quarter (Q1) fiscal year (FY) 2026 results on Wednesday 4 March, after market close. The earnings conference call will commence at 5.00pm Eastern Time (ET).

Q4 record revenue and AI acceleration

Broadcom closed FY 2025 on a strong note, with Q4 revenue reaching a record $18.0 billion — a 28% year-over-year (YoY) increase that exceeded analyst expectations of $17.4 billion. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.95, topping consensus estimates of $1.86. For the full FY, consolidated revenue grew 24% to $64 billion, underpinned by two key growth pillars: artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors and VMware.

AI semiconductor revenue surged 74% YoY to $6.5 billion in the quarter, with the full-year figure reaching $20 billion — a 65% YoY increase that now accounts for more than half of total semiconductor revenue. Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators, known internally as XPUs, have attracted a growing roster of hyperscale customers. During the Q4 earnings call, chief executive officer (CEO) Hock Tan confirmed a fifth XPU customer had been secured with an initial $1 billion order. He also revealed that Anthropic — the previously unnamed fourth customer — had placed an additional $11 billion order for delivery in late 2026, following a $10 billion order received in Q3. Total AI backlog now stands at $73 billion, expected to be delivered over the next 18 months.

The infrastructure software segment, largely powered by the 2023 VMware acquisition, delivered Q4 revenue of $6.9 billion, up 19% YoY, with strong bookings of $10.4 billion. Software gross margin reached 93% and operating margin improved to 78%, reflecting robust adoption of VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF). Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for FY 2025 grew 35% to a record $43.0 billion, while free cash flow reached $26.9 billion — up 39% YoY.

Despite robust results, Broadcom shares fell sharply following the earnings call. The primary catalyst for the selloff was a margin warning from chief financial officer (CFO) Kirsten Spears, who guided Q1 gross margin to decline approximately 100 basis points (bp) sequentially, attributed to a higher mix of AI revenue. Investor concerns were further compounded by the high degree of revenue concentration among a limited number of hyperscale customers.

Q1 revenue trajectory intact, but margin pressure mounts

Analyst consensus reflects expectations for sustained revenue momentum, primarily driven by continued expansion in the AI semiconductor segment. Profitability, however, is anticipated to come under pressure as the growing contribution of lower-margin, full rack-scale AI solutions weighs on overall margins as FY2026 progresses.

Below are the analysts’ estimates based on LSEG data:



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