The defining narrative in the foreign exchange market for 2025 is a tug of war between “US exceptionalism – US dollar strong” and “US debasement – US dollar weak”. At the start of 2025, market consensus leaned heavily toward a bearish outlook for the US dollar, anchored on the new Trump administration’s aggressive fiscal agenda.
Christmas Day/Boxing Day/Weekend: TL;DR summary: Silver hit fresh record highs above US$83 before a sharp pullback, with volatility driven by strong industrial demand and supply concerns Elon Musk warned higher silver prices are problematic for industry, highlighting EVs’ heavy reliance on the metal China industrial profits slumped 13.1% y/y in November, underscoring persistent deflation and
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) rises against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, maintaining its position around a 14-month high of 0.6724, reached on December 26. The AUD/USD pair strengthens as the Aussie Dollar finds support amid growing expectations of interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA’s December Meeting Minutes indicated
TL;DR summary: Elon Musk flags concern over potential silver supply restrictions Social media claims point to tighter Chinese export controls from 2026 Silver is critical for EVs, electronics and renewable technologies China dominates global silver supply chains Markets alert to parallels with rare earth export curbs – Silver prices have attracted renewed volatility after comments
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Daily and intraday structure remain aligned following the December 19 pivot reclaim Nasdaq March Futures (NQH) – Asia, London and New York Market context This update is a direct continuation of the desk work published on December 19, using the same daily and intraday charts and reference levels mapped ahead of the move. The objective
TL;DR summary: Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the steepest decline in over a year Weak domestic demand and factory-gate deflation outweighed export resilience Coal sector profits slumped sharply, dragging aggregate performance Autos and high-tech manufacturing remained relative bright spots Markets continue to expect further policy support in 2026 to stabilise growth China’s industrial
We are all is trying to gauge if this is the “Peace Dividend” moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster. Trump says they are in the “final stages” of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal. Promises a “strong” security agreement is coming. He’s calling European leaders today and plans
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In the first eleven months of 2025, China’s industrial firms experienced a modest profit increase of 0.1% year over year, reaching CNY 6.63 trillion. This marks a significant deceleration from the 1.9% growth recorded in the preceding period, attributed to waning demand and persistent pricing pressures. Earnings in the private sector saw a slight decline,
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One of the big surprises of 2025 was OPEC+ abandoning efforts to prop up the price of oil. For years, OPEC had been a strong market backstop, managing supply to maintain a floor under crude. However, a combination of eroding market share, resilient non-OPEC production finally forced a change in strategy and perhaps a nudge
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However, some counterarguments could arise. Are prices overextended compared to the current use and fundamental value of the metals? An eternal question in Markets. However, looking at the 2025 yearly close, it doesn’t appear that demand is stalling for now. On the other hand, what could make the difference would be if alternative metals begin
