In contrast, from the start of October 2026 through Thursday, 15 October 2026, the DJIA reversed higher and recorded a gain of 2.46%, outperforming the tech-centric Nasdaq 100 (-1.86%) by 4.32 percentage points, heavily triggered by the weakness seen in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which shed 9.73% amid fears of elevated AI optimism (see Fig. 2).
The DJIA’s October recovery has gained traction this week, with a clearer rotation towards healthcare and consumer stocks as the AI trade comes under pressure. Through Thursday, 15 October 2026, after the close of the US session, the Dow gained 1.0% for the week to 52,183, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined 0.9% and 3.1%, respectively.
The drivers of recovery have shifted since early October. The primary driver of the current Dow’s outperformance is rotation away from debt-sensitive AI infrastructure stocks towards businesses with more established earnings.
Concerns over AI financing costs intensified, while TSMC’s cautious 2027 commentary tempered enthusiasm despite another record quarterly profit. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for a seventh consecutive session on Thursday, 15 October 2026.
Healthcare and consumer stocks attracted buying, helping the Dow outperform its technology-heavy peers. This suggests its relative strength increasingly reflects a change in market leadership.
UnitedHealth has provided company-specific support. Its third-quarter earnings beat expectations, management raised its outlook, and comments pointed to tentative moderation in government healthcare programme costs. That gives the Dow’s healthcare exposure a fundamental earnings catalyst alongside the broader rotation.
The macro backdrop also remains difficult. September core CPI continued its climb to 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month; both came in above the 2.5% and 0.2% forecasts, respectively.
Following Wednesday’s release, October’s Fed rate-hike expectations increased to around 30%, from approximately 20% according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Dow’s resilience despite this repricing strengthens the rotation argument, but persistent inflation remains a threat to valuations and consumer demand.
The near-term view is more constructive on the Dow’s relative performance. Sustained healthcare and consumer leadership, followed by improving participation from financials and industrials, would strengthen the bullish catch-up case.
If leadership remains concentrated while inflation and financing costs rise, the Dow could continue outperforming the Nasdaq 100.
Let us now focus on the near-term technicals on the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures).