Macro update
Stocks rise on peace hopes: Asian equities advanced as investors focused on US-Iran negotiations, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan up 0.8%, US futures higher and European futures pointing to a stronger open.
Nikkei nears record high: Japan’s Nikkei climbed more than 2%, led by AI-related stocks following gains in US chipmakers, with SoftBank, Tokyo Electron and Advantest among the main contributors.
Oil remains volatile: Brent moved back above $102 a barrel as uncertainty persisted over the prospects for a US-Iran breakthrough, although prices were still on track for a weekly decline after sharp swings driven by conflicting signals from the talks.
Hormuz risk keeps inflation fears alive: Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate the macro outlook, with elevated energy prices feeding inflation concerns and prompting markets to price in tighter monetary policy.
Dollar holds near six-week high: The dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand, resilient US economic data and rising expectations of further rate hikes, while the euro traded near recent lows and sterling was little changed.
Yen intervention risk grows: The yen weakened beyond 159 per dollar despite suspected recent intervention, keeping traders alert for further action from Tokyo as softer Japanese inflation complicates the Bank of Japan’s tightening path.