Eurozone GDP data in focus this week
Staying on the subject of growth, we are scheduled to receive eurozone (EA) second-quarter (Q2) GDP numbers tomorrow night and a EA inflation update on Friday night.
Eurozone Q2 GDP
Date: Wednesday, 30 July at 7.00pm AEDT
Last quarter (Q1 2025), GDP rose by 0.6%, up from 0.3% in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2024. This allowed the annual rate of growth in Q1 to increase by 1.5% year-on-year (YoY), its strongest rate of annual growth since Q4 2022.
Among the EA’s largest economies, German GDP was flat, snapping a run of six consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Growth was recorded in France (+0.6%), Italy (+0.7%), Spain (+2.8%), and the Netherlands (+2%).
For Q2 2025, GDP in the EA is expected to come in at 0.0%, which would cause the annual rate of growth to ease to 1.2% from 1.5% previously.
At the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate meeting last week, the ECB kept rates on hold at 2% after seven consecutive cuts. The press conference took on a hawkish tone, raising the bar for a rate cut in September. Weaker-than-expected GDP data and inline inflation figures this week could re-energise the market’s expectations of a rate cut in September, which is currently only assigned a 16% chance.