Fed FOMC rate cut expectations (Statement due on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT).
Most banks lean toward a 25 bps trim, but a couple of houses see the Fed moving faster with a 50 bps cut.
25 bps cut (consensus view):
-
BMO
-
Barclays
-
CIBC
-
Goldman Sachs
-
JPMorgan
-
Morgan Stanley
-
Nomura
-
RBC
-
Scotiabank
-
Wells Fargo
50 bps cut (more aggressive):
-
Standard Chartered
-
Société Générale
—
A 25 bps cut is largely priced in and may not move markets much unless guidance shifts.
A 50 bps cut, however, would likely spark USD weakness, a Treasury rally, and could fuel a risk-on move in equities and gold.