Gold shows signs of fatigue inside established range

Gold has been in a $250 range since hitting new all-time highs after Liberation Day in April 2025. 

Despite many signs of new trends very close to beginning, the only true thing is that Gold has not been able to find a trend.

The question that may arise, particularly after last week’s rebound on the 2025 upward trendline, which failed to even touch the All-time high record, is: Do Gold bulls have enough fundamental resources to push the metal to new highs?
The weekly session has started with some great volatility, particularly as the US Dollar is breaking higher in a strong manner and with the EU-US Trade Deal being close to concluded.
This volatility has been negative for Gold which had been going up on more tense global trade outlooks. As a matter of fact, global trade is felt to be looking better as more Deals are reached.
Before taking a look at the technicals, let’s see if positioning helps us to get a good idea of what is going on.

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Client positioning in Gold is overweight long. Positioning tends to typically be an inversely correlated tool to imminent Market moves – If players are long, an inability to add to positions emphasis further reversals, in this case it gives a bearish tilt.

Gold was on a strong move towards that previously pointed to potentially hitting the all-time highs – A spike at the $3,439 highs got met with an Engulfing bearish candle after the reaching of the US-Japan Trade deal.
Since, an over-$100 correction has brought the precious metal below the 2025 upwards trendline, particularly after opening down on the weekly open, just below its key 50-Day Moving average ($3,342).

Buyers having failed to hold the rally above it gives more emphasis to the ongoing selling – However the action is still rangebound with the prices entering the $3,300 to $3,320 Support Zone.
Any close below would look at the end-June $3,250 level that served as key support, with no other major support until $3,120 May lows

The weekly open has quickly built towards the Key support mentioned on the Daily timeframe, which leaves a last hurdle for the bulls to support the range before a potential $50 breakdown.
$3,300 is not a pivot point to underestimate, and retracements in Gold tend to be short – Therefore even if the level breaks, it will be essential to see where other buyers step in ($3,250 is the next key support).
There has been a long-tailed wick at the morning session selling candle leading to a small rebound – Any rebound from here will have to be strong enough to bring prices above the $3,350 Pivot Zone in confluence with the 4H MA 200.
Any selloff from there would open the door for a more concrete downwards reversal in a break-retest fashion which would infer a need for further analysis.

Reactions from here are a major key for the action to come.

Looking even closer, the battle is nnot won yet for the Bears.
The formation of a intermediate-downwards channel shows a potential test of its higher bound which coincides with the 30m 50-period MA ($3,330); a first hurdle to break for the range to hold and to give a chance to regain higher levels.
That MA is actually a key to intraday momentum, having served as resistance for sellers to step in so keep that one closely in check.
Safe Trades!

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