Goldman raises its AUD/USD path to 0.72–0.74 over 12 months, citing RBA hawkishness, relative policy divergence and valuation support, while flagging commodity and global risk risks.
Summary:
-
Goldman Sachs lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.72 (3m), 0.73 (6m), 0.74 (12m).
-
Upgrade driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and expectation of another May hike.
-
AUD seen undervalued versus Goldman’s GSBEER fair-value model.
-
Risks: deeper metals selloff, weak US data, global risk-off (AI/software unwind).
Goldman Sachs has turned more constructive on the Australian dollar, raising its forecasts for AUD/USD and arguing that relative policy dynamics are shifting in the currency’s favour.
The bank now sees AUD/USD at 0.72 in three months (vs. prior forecast of 0.68),
- 0.73 in six months (vs. prior forecast of 0.69)
- and 0.74 in twelve months (vs. prior forecast of 0.70)
a meaningful round of upgrades.
Upgrade primarily on the stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which Goldman characterises as among the more hawkish developed-market central banks at present.
For market participants, the key takeaway is the policy divergence theme. Goldman expects the RBA to deliver one additional rate hike in May, broadly consistent with market pricing of roughly 20bp of tightening by that meeting. The bank notes that policymakers place significant weight on quarterly underlying CPI measures — with the next release due the week before the May decision — making that inflation print a pivotal catalyst for AUD positioning.
Notably, Goldman argues that the Australian dollar has held up impressively despite volatility in metals prices and terms-of-trade headwinds. On its GSBEER fair-value framework, AUD remains roughly 2 percentage points undervalued relative to recent fundamentals, suggesting room for catch-up appreciation if the policy signal remains firm.
For traders and macro allocators, the implication is clear: as long as the RBA maintains a tightening bias and US data continue to soften at the margin, the balance of risks skews toward a firmer AUD/USD trajectory over the next quarter.
Goldman does flag risks. A sharper downturn in metals prices would weigh on Australia’s external balance; materially weaker US consumer data could spark broader growth fears; and renewed equity volatility — particularly in US AI and software names — could pressure AUD against traditional safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc.