Factors shaping investor reactions
Close attention will be paid to the following factors which will shape investors reactions following the earnings report:
- Blackwell architecture performance and ramp-up
The Blackwell platform, which generated $11 billion in Q4 2025, is a focal point. Investors will scrutinise updates on its production scale and revenue contribution, as it’s described as Nvidia’s fastest product ramp ever.
Commentary on supply chain constraints or demand trends for Blackwell chips will be critical, especially given analyst estimates of $75.1 billion in data centre revenue for fiscal 2026, with Blackwell as a major driver.
- China exposure and export controls
Tightened US export restrictions on AI chips to China have impacted Nvidia. The company is reportedly looking to develop lower-cost, export-compliant chips to maintain access to the Chinese market and retain its shrinking foothold in China’s $50 billion data centre market.
- Guidance for Q2 2026 and full-year outlook
Nvidia’s forward guidance will be pivotal, as investors are showing hypersensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Analysts are looking for Q2 guidance of approximately $45.8 billion while looking for fiscal year 2026 revenue to reach approximately $198.8 billion, a significant jump from 2025’s $130.5 billion, with EPS projected at $4.32.
- AI demand and competitive landscape (DeepSeek impact)
The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup developing models with less powerful chips, has raised questions about whether Big Tech’s AI spending might shift away from Nvidia’s high-end GPUs. CEO Jensen Huang has argued that DeepSeek’s reasoning models will increase demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, but investors will seek reassurance that Nvidia’s 98% market share in data centre GPUs remains secure.
US tariffs and trade policies have weighed on Nvidia’s share price. While chip imports were later exempted, any commentary on tariff impacts or supply chain resilience will influence investor confidence, especially given Nvidia’s global supply chain exposure.