RBC analysts warn against complacency in assessing risks to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that Iran retains significant retaliatory capabilities. “Iran has the ability to meaningfully retaliate by hitting individual tankers and ports,” they said, pushing back on the notion that disruptions hinge solely on a dramatic escalation. The situation, they argue, is far from a “‘full closure or nothing’ scenario.”
While markets may be quick to discount further risk, RBC advises patience and caution. “It may take a few days or even weeks to discern the Iranian response… Above all, we would caution against the knee-jerk ‘the worst is behind us’ hot take at this stage.”
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