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Elior Manier Market Analyst Elior brings over seven years of experience in financial markets to our analyst team. Since 2018, he has actively engaged in observing, charting, and trading, driven by his passion for mastering market dynamics. With a profound understanding of the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that shape market movements, Elior focuses on analysing
Tariffs increase prices one time, central banks can look through that. Tariff effects not zero, but are not large either. Has been arguing a pretty restrictive policy rate can come down. Unemployment is around long run level. Reiterate case for why July rate cut could happen, says an easing would not be political. THANKS that
Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns USD/CAD has been on a grind off late having finally broken out of a brief period of consolidation thanks in part to a moderate US Dollar recovery and stalling Oil prices. USD/CAD has however, failed to find acceptance above the 1.3700
Earlier today I was writing about why I don’t think the Federal Reserve will cut rates but Jamie Dimon is taking it a stel further saying there is a 40-50% chance the Fed will hike rates. He says: Tariffs are inflationary, it won’t come all at once US migration policies are inflationary Budget deficit is
Microsoft’s continued dominance in technology sector Key facts Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 38.9 Dividend yield: 0.66% Five-year total return: 145% Five-year total return (annualised): 19.74% Microsoft’s robust performance continues to impress investors, with the stock trading at $503.51 and demonstrating remarkable resilience in challenging market conditions. The company’s diversified business model spans cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI),
US mutual funds and exchange-traded funds went into April’s tariff turmoil holding the highest net long US dollar position in recent years. According to FX Markets’ Counterparty Radar data, mutual funds’ net long USD notional position, via foreign exchange forwards, stood at $455.7 billion by the end of the first quarter, the highest long USD position
Lithuania’s trade deficit increased in May from a year ago as exports fell amid an increase in imports, figures from the statistical office showed on Thursday. The trade deficit rose to EUR 584.4 in May from EUR 324.6 million in the corresponding month last year. In April, the shortfall was EUR 578 million. Exports declined
The euro continues to have a quiet week and is drifting for a third consecutive day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1730, up 0.09% on the day. German inflation dips to 2% as food, energy prices fall German inflation rose 2.0% y/y in June, in line with the consensus and a drop
Institutional adoption drives Bitcoin’s meteoric rise The cryptocurrency’s ascent to a new record high around the $112,000.00 mark is attributed to a confluence of factors, including heightened institutional interest, favourable macroeconomic conditions, and supportive regulatory developments. A primary driver behind Bitcoin’s recent surge is the substantial inflow into Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Over the past week,
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a pause in the dollar’s rally. Treasury yields collapsed after a successful 10-year note auction. Fed policymakers believe rate cuts will be appropriate later in the year. The USD/CAD forecast indicates a pause in the dollar’s rally after a sharp collapse in Treasury yields in the previous session. At the same
Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.7% Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% As the EU closes in on a makeshift deal with the US to extend negotiations while holding the baseline 10% tariffs, that’s allowing for European indices to keep a more buoyant mood. US futures are less
2025.07.10 2025.07.10 Trump Opens Rift at Fed. Forecast as of 10.07.2025 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Donald Trump’s criticism is forcing the Fed to counteract. However, there is a split within the US regulator, and this factor is extremely important for the US administration. Let’s discuss this topic and make
The Australian Dollar receives support from the cautious tone surrounding RBA’s policy outlook. RBA’s Bullock stated that elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity could drive inflation above current forecasts. President Trump issued a fresh round of tariff demand letters, reigniting concerns over a global trade war. The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak
There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 level once again. The expiries there have been helping to limit downside price action on the week and will play the same role again today in the run up to
The Bank of Korea left its interest rate unchanged on Thursday citing risks associated with rising household debt and escalating trade tensions. The Monetary Policy Board decided to leave the Base Rate unchanged at 2.50 percent. The bank had previously reduced the benchmark rate by a quarter-point each in May and February. “The Board will
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,
