News of a US criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell dominated global financial headlines, injecting a fresh dose of political risk into markets. While the investigation itself was unsettling, the sharper jolt came from Powell’s unusually direct response, which framed the episode as part of a broader campaign to pressure the central bank. In […]
2026.01.12 2026.01.12 Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 12.01.2026 Roman Oneginhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/roman-onegin/ Dear readers, I’ve prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on the Elliott wave analysis. The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways BTCUSD: Wave (Z) may target the 80,770.57 level. Consider short positions. XRPUSD: The price is expected
The USD/JPY outlook remains modestly bullish, as poor risk sentiment benefits the dollar more than the yen. Japan’s PM could call for an early election, keeping the yen under pressure. Speculations about the Fed’s independence could limit the dollar’s rally in the short term. The USD/JPY pair trades near a one-year high as the Japanese
Indonesia’s retail sales growth moderated for the first time in four months in December, preliminary data from the Bank Indonesia showed on Monday. Retail sales rose 4.4 percent year-on-year in December, slower than the 6.3 percent surge a month ago. Sales have been rising since May. The overall growth was supported by spare parts and
The December payrolls number was on the softer side but the unemployment rate dropped back a little to 4.4% (unrounded 4.375%). The latter seems to be enough to convince some market analysts that the labour market is at least holding up as we get into the new year, with the Fed likely not too much
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The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a cautious note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair trades firmly near the weekly high of 90.66 as the Indian Rupee underperforms due to rising oil prices and the continued outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market. Currencies from
Summary: Yuan rose 4.5% in 2025, its best year since 2020 Former SAFE official says gains lack fundamental backing Strength driven by weaker dollar demand, not inflows Falling REER does not imply undervaluation Disinflation and output gap argue against stronger yuan Yuan’s rebound lacks fundamental backing despite 2025 gains, former FX regulator warns. Info via
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The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers near a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and recovers slightly from a nearly three-week low, touched during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a four-day losing streak and currently trade around the 1.3435 region, up 0.20% for the day. Despite
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Summary: Trump to receive formal briefing on Iran response options Measures include sanctions, cyber tools and possible strikes Pentagon has not repositioned forces yet Starlink internet access under consideration Risk of regional escalation remains high Wall Street Journal with the report, link. The United States is stepping up contingency planning for possible action against Iran,
Adam had the news on Friday: More on this, summary: LDP lawmakers expect possible Lower House dissolution in late January Snap election could be held as early as February Takaichi citing inflation relief and economic impact as priorities Ruling bloc holds slim Lower House majority, Upper House minority Election logistics already being quietly prepared Speculation
As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. EUR/USD 1.1635 USD/JPY 158.09 GBP/USD 1.3398 USD/CHF 0.8011 USD/CAD 1.3911 AUD/USD 0.6681 NZD/USD 0.5731 Not too much movement from Later Friday levels.
Summary: Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland. Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing. Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation. British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead
Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec) Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec) Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov) Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd
The first full week of 2026 delivered a barrage of geopolitical shocks that would normally be expected to rattle global markets. Instead, investors largely looked through the noise, producing a market outcome that appears counterintuitive at first glance. The most dramatic development came from Latin America, where the US carried out a direct military intervention
