Macro hedge funds like Rokos Capital Management and Bridgewater may have profited from foreign exchange volatility during the second quarter, but for options dealers the market has become increasingly precarious. Since US president Donald Trump’s explosive tariff policy announcement in April, positioning has been firmly geared towards US dollar weakening across G10 currencies. A July […]
Wegovy momentum stalls as reality bites Novo Nordisk’s decision to slash its 2025 outlook represents a sobering reality check for the weight-loss drug market that had captured investor imagination. The company’s guidance cut from 13-21% sales growth to just 8-14% signals that the initial euphoria around GLP-1 medications may have been overdone. US Wegovy prescriptions
Dollar’s broad-based advance continues today, underpinned by firm sentiment that recent US trade deals with the EU and Japan mark the clearing of major global trade risks, at least for now. Though US–China talks continue in Stockholm, markets appear unbothered. Officials on both sides have indicated willingness to negotiate terms and extend the August 12
Fundamental Overview The USD regained some ground in the final part of last week and extended the gains yesterday although we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst for the move. Overall, we continue to range as the market is waiting for something new for the next sustained trend. Given that the “short US dollar” is now
2025.07.29 2025.07.29 Swiss Franc Under Siege Amid US-EU Trade Shift. Forecast as of 29.07.2025 Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/ The US-EU agreement has reversed the prevailing trends in global financial markets. Capital may once again flow into the US, while diminishing demand for safe havens puts the Swiss franc at risk. Let’s discuss this topic and make a
The British pound is down for a fourth straight day, as the US dollar is showing strength against most of the majors. The pound has declined 1.5% in the current slide. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3338, down 0.10% on the day. The pound fell as low as 1.3315 earlier, its lowest
Modest gains mask underlying strength across markets The S&P 500’s minimal 0.02% gain to fresh record highs tells a story of quiet confidence rather than explosive momentum. While the move appears modest, the ability to push through to new territory suggests the underlying trend remains intact. The Nasdaq 100’s 0.33% advance proved more convincing, driven by renewed
Spain’s economic growth improved in the second quarter driven by robust domestic demand, flash data from the statistical office INE showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product expanded 0.7 percent sequentially after rising 0.6 percent in the prior period. At the same time, annual GDP growth held steady at 2.8 percent in the second quarter. On
2025.07.29 2025.07.29 Short-Term Analysis for BTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD for 29.07.2025 Roman Oneginhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/roman-onegin/ Dear readers, I’ve prepared a short-term forecast for Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum based on the Elliott wave analysis. The article covers the following subjects: Major Takeaways BTCUSD: The correction is completed. Expect the price to rise to a high of 126,160.57. Consider long
Eurozone GDP data in focus this week Staying on the subject of growth, we are scheduled to receive eurozone (EA) second-quarter (Q2) GDP numbers tomorrow night and a EA inflation update on Friday night. Eurozone Q2 GDP Date: Wednesday, 30 July at 7.00pm AEDT Last quarter (Q1 2025), GDP rose by 0.6%, up from 0.3% in
The US Treasury just announced that they will be expecting to borrow $1.007 trillion in Q3 this year, which is a significant step up from their borrowing estimate seen back in April ($554 billion). For some context, the debt ceiling issue in the earlier months this year meant that the US Treasury had to cut
Rate hikes help to restore confidence that economy, inflation are moving in line with projections BOJ must be vigilant to upside risks to inflation though Rising food prices could lead to inflation expectations overshooting Dollar to retain supremacy as key global currency But cracks are appearing as investors diversify into other currencies I think the
The EU-US trade framework ‘deal’ has been met with mixed responses. A couple of analyst comments (this via Reuters): Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank “It hasn’t taken long for markets to conclude that this relatively good news is still, in absolute terms, bad news as far as the near term
Morgan Stanley has reiterated its bullish outlook for U.S. equities, forecasting the S&P 500 will climb to 7,200 within the next year, a roughly 12% gain from recent levels. The bank’s call is underpinned by what it describes as a “rolling recovery” in corporate earnings, marking a shift from the rolling earnings recession that began
Trump has cut his previously announced 50-day deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, now giving Moscow just “10 or 12 days” to reach an agreement. Speaking at a press conference in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday, Trump said there’s no point in further delays and expressed frustration over the lack of
Senior U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm on Monday for over five hours of negotiations aimed at extending the current tariff truce by another 90 days. The talks, held at the Swedish prime minister’s office, involved U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng leading their respective sides. Both are working
The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimate for the July–September quarter to $1.01 trillion. The revision reflects the impact of the recent debt ceiling suspension, which allowed for a $5 trillion increase. In response, the Treasury is accelerating bond issuance to replenish its cash holdings, aiming for an $850 billion balance by the end
