Current outlook for European aviation
As Ryanair and easyJet prepare to release their upcoming earnings reports, investors are closely monitoring key indicators that will shed light on the health and trajectory of Europe’s leading low-cost carriers.
The European aviation sector continues to navigate a complex landscape, with robust travel demand offset by persistent operational challenges. Both airlines have emerged from the pandemic with restructured operations and clear strategic visions, yet face ongoing headwinds from cost inflation and supply chain disruptions.
The summer 2025 season represents a critical test for both carriers, with advanced bookings providing an early indicator of consumer sentiment. Despite economic uncertainties affecting discretionary spending in other sectors, demand for air travel has shown remarkable resilience.
These earnings reports will provide valuable insights not just into the companies’ individual performances, but also into broader industry trends that could impact the entire European aviation sector for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.
Ryanair’s performance and strategic position
Ryanair is scheduled to report its fiscal year 2025 earnings on Monday, May 19, 2025. Analysts anticipate the company will post a loss of €0.29 per share in the third quarter (Q3) and EPS of €1.46 for the year, with revenues around €2.3 billion for the quarter and €13.96 billion for the fiscal year.
The airline has faced challenges due to Boeing aircraft delivery delays, leading to a downward revision of its fiscal 2026 passenger growth target to 206 million from an initial 215 million. Despite these setbacks, Ryanair reported a strong fiscal Q3, with a 9% increase in passenger numbers to 44.9 million and a net profit of around €144 million, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. Revenue rose 10% to €2.96 billion, and the company announced an interim dividend of €0.18 per share.
Looking ahead, Ryanair forecasts fiscal 2025 profits between €1.55 billion and €1.80 billion but cautioned that its fourth quarter won’t benefit from an early Easter holiday as it did the previous year and might show a 16% drop and loss of €386.5 million in the fourth quarter (Q4) compared to Q4 2024.
CEO Michael O’Leary’s typically outspoken commentary will be closely scrutinised for insights on the ongoing Boeing delivery saga, which has forced the airline to adjust its ambitious growth plans and potentially cede market share to competitors with more reliable aircraft supply chains.
easyJet’s recovery trajectory
easyJet is set to release its half-year results for fiscal year 2025 on 22 May, 2025. The airline has shown signs of recovery, reporting a 34% increase in profit before tax to £610 million for the year ending September 2024. Additionally, easyJet posted a smaller first quarter (Q1) operating loss of £40 million for the three months ending 31 December, 2024, compared to a loss of £117 million in the previous year. This improvement was attributed to lower fuel costs and increased passenger demand for travel and holiday packages.
Earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to grow by 10.46% to 104.96p.
The airline’s new CEO, Kenton Jarvis, highlighted strong demand for popular summer destinations, with one million more customers already booked. easyJet remains on track to achieve its target of £1 billion in profit before tax within the next three to five years, with a significant contribution expected from its asset-light holiday business model.
easyJet’s strategic pivot toward offering packaged holidays represents a significant diversification from its core airline business. This higher-margin segment has shown impressive growth, helping to insulate the company from the thin margins typical of the budget airline sector.
The carrier’s fleet modernisation programme continues, with older A319 aircraft being replaced by more fuel-efficient A320neo and A321neo models. This transition is expected to deliver both cost savings and environmental benefits, though the pace of new deliveries will be closely watched for any Airbus supply chain disruptions.
Key metrics to watch in Ryanair’s results
Investors watching Ryanair’s upcoming earnings should focus on several critical performance indicators beyond the headline revenue and profit figures. These metrics will provide deeper insights into the carrier’s operational efficiency and future growth potential.
Load factor – the percentage of available seats filled with paying passengers – remains a crucial measure of capacity utilisation. Ryanair typically targets load factors above 90%, and any significant deviation from this level could signal pricing or demand challenges in certain markets.
Ancillary revenue growth will be another focus area, as Ryanair continues to expand its non-ticket revenue streams. The company has been particularly successful at monetising extras like priority boarding, seat selection, and baggage fees, which contribute substantially to its overall profitability.
Unit cost trends excluding fuel (CASK ex-fuel) will reveal whether Ryanair is maintaining its industry-leading cost discipline. This metric is particularly important given the last couple of years’ inflationary pressures across labour, airport charges, and maintenance costs.
Forward booking commentary for the summer season will perhaps be the most valuable forward-looking indicator. Any softness in pricing or volume for the crucial peak summer months would raise concerns about the carrier’s full-year outlook.
Ryanair analyst recommendations and share price technical analysis
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, 4 analysts have a ‘strong buy’ recommendation for Ryanair, 10 a ‘buy’, 7 a ‘hold’ and 1 a ‘sell’ (as of 16/05/2025).