After rebounding sporadically over the past two weeks, Gold and other precious commodities have failed to match the broadly positive, euphoric mood currently driving equity markets.
While they initially profited from the first corrective wave in the US Dollar, capital flows have aggressively pivoted toward risk-on assets.
Traditional safe havens, which arguably lost their clear directional sight during the height of the war’s panic, are now heavily questioning their role in this new environment—and investors are doing exactly the same.
The geopolitical clock is ticking. The temporary US-Iran ceasefire is officially set to expire by Wednesday, April 22, and both sides appear increasingly reluctant to extend the truce without a finalized, signed agreement in place.
The US Administration is eager for a peaceful resolution but the President communicated that he is also ready to use strength.
Despite Crude Oil dropping back to the $90 handle, metals are struggling to pick up any meaningful bullish momentum while in this tense waiting room.
Should the ceasefire unexpectedly collapse without a diplomatic resolution, precious metals could face a violent, binary reaction.
If WTI Oil manages to remain contained below the critical $100 mark, Gold could absolutely explode higher on a sudden rush of risk-off haven flows, capitalizing on its recent technical correction, and a lack of worsening inflation expectations.
Conversely, more risk-sensitive, industrial-leaning metals like Silver and Copper would likely struggle to catch a sustained bid, facing heavy downward pressure precisely because they are hovering near their current relative highs.
Let’s explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts.