Solana recovery underway
In recent days, Solana’s (SOL) has been under the spotlight as a surge in institutional interest – via exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows – intersects with persistent structural and market-sentiment pressures.
According to reports, Solana exchange-traded funds have drawn in nearly $400 million in November alone, continuing a streak of sustained inflows that stand out even as broader crypto markets struggle.
That influx of capital appears to have supported a sharp rebound in the SOL price: after dipping to around $122.00 last week, SOL climbed back towards the $140.00 region this week.
Nonetheless, many holders remain underwater. Apparently roughly 78% of SOL holders are reported to be “in loss,” underscoring the high volatility and risk as prices bounce.
Against this backdrop, Solana is entering what some analysts call a pivotal test. The renewed inflows and expanding institutional exposure may give SOL the chance to stabilise and build a recovery base.
However, the fact that a large proportion of holders carry losses – coupled with broader macroeconomic headwinds and lingering uncertainty across the crypto sector – means that any rally could remain fragile.
Looking ahead, the tension between new institutional demand (via ETFs) and the vulnerability of many retail investors will likely shape SOL’s near-term trajectory.
If inflows continue and market sentiment strengthens, Solana could see further support – but if pressure mounts (for example due to macroeconomic stress or renewed risk-off sentiment), the high share of holders at a loss could translate into fresh selling.
In short: over the last two weeks, Solana’s story has become one of contrasts – a strong institutional interest inflow at the same time as widespread holder losses, leaving SOL at a critical crossroads between recovery and renewed volatility.
Solana bearish scenario:
Despite its recent recovery, SOL remains in a medium-term downtrend and will continue to do so as long as no rise and daily chart close above the 11 November high at $171.89 is seen.
Even for the short-term trend to point upwards, a rise and daily chart close above the 20 November high at $144.65 would need to be seen.
While remaining below the $144.65 high, the risk of revisiting the key $146.05-to-$137.27 support zone remains in play. If fallen through, the June low at $126.12 may be reached.
Solana bullish scenario:
Only a bullish reversal and rise above 20 November high at $144.65 may put the 11 November peak at $171.89 on the map.
In this scenario the October-to-November resistance line around $158.00 would also have been breached – a positive sign for the bulls. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $179.24 may then also be reached.
For the bulls to be fully in control, a rise and daily chart close above the early November peak at $189.07 is needed.