Tag: Bitcoin

  • Dollar Stays Soft as Forex Markets Quiet, US CPI Highlights the Week

    Dollar Stays Soft as Forex Markets Quiet, US CPI Highlights the Week


    Forex markets are trading quietly in the Asian session, remaining within Friday’s range and showing little impetus to move decisively in either direction. Dollar is staying on the back foot, with a lack of substantial buying interest to sustain a meaningful rebound. While last week’s non-farm payroll data helped calm fears of a rapid labor market slowdown, market sentiment remains cautious in the face of escalating uncertainties.

    Late last Friday, Morgan Stanley lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast for the US and highlighted mounting concerns about trade tensions. The bank noted that “earlier and broader tariffs should translate into softer growth this year.” In contrast to its previous assumption that any tariff-related drag on growth would be more pronounced in 2026. Morgan Stanley now projects Q4/Q4 2025 growth at 1.5% (down from 1.9%), and 2026 growth at 1.2% (down from 1.3%).

    Goldman Sachs also joined the wave of downward revisions, cutting its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.7%. Moreover, it raised its 12-month recession probability to 20%. While the odd is still low, it’s a noticeable shift from the previously estimated 15%.

    So far this month, Dollar is the weakest performer among the major currencies. It is trailed by Canadian Dollar and then Australian Dollar. On the other end, Euro leads the pack, followed by Swiss Franc and then British Pound, indicating broad European strength in the current environment. Both Yen and New Zealand Dollar hold the middle ground.

    Looking ahead, the upcoming US CPI release will be the major data focal point this week Meanwhile, BoC is widely expected to deliver another rate cut. UK GDP data will also be a feature.

    Technically, AUD/NZD appears to be building up downside momentum as seen in D MACD. Break of 1.1001 support will pace the way to 1.0940 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.0567 to 1.1177 at 1.0944). Such development would give Aussie some additional pressure elsewhere.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.47%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.53%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.37%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.52.

     

    Japan’s nominal wages rises 2.8% yoy in Jan, real wages fall -1.8% yoy

    Japan’s labor cash earnings rose 2.8% yoy in January, falling short of market expectations of 3.2% yoy. Nominal wage growth remained positive for the 37th month.

    Real wages, adjusted for inflation, fell -1.8% yoy, reversing two months of slight gains. The decline was largely driven by a sharp rise in consumer inflation.

    The inflation rate used by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare to calculate real wages—which includes fresh food prices but excludes rent—accelerated to 4.7% yoy, its highest level since January 2023.

    Regular pay, or base salary, rose 3.1% yoy, the largest gain since 1992. This was overshadowed by a sharp -3.7% yoy decline in special payments, which consist largely of one-off bonuses.

    China’s inflation turns negative, but seasonal factors skew the picture

    Released over the weekend, China’s consumer inflation dipped into negative territory for the first time in over a year, with February’s CPI coming in at -0.7% yoy, weaker than the expected -0.5% yoy, and a sharp reversal from January’s 0.5% yoy gain.

    Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also slipped by -0.1% yoy—its first decline since January 2021—signaling weak underlying demand.

    On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell -0.2%, more than the expected -0.1%, reversing some of January’s 0.7% increase.

    While the decline may raise concerns about deflationary pressures, NBS attributed much of the drop to seasonal distortions tied to the timing of the Lunar New Year. Stripping out this factor, NBS estimates that CPI actually rose 0.1% yoy.

    Given these distortions, a clearer picture of China’s inflation trajectory will likely emerge in March when seasonal effects fade.

    Meanwhile, producer prices remained in contraction for the 29th consecutive month, with PPU declining -2.2% yoy, slightly better than January’s -2.3% yoy but still below expectations of -2.1% yoy.

    BoC rate cut, US inflation and consumer sentiment

    Expectations for BoC to continue easing policy have surged following weak February job data, which showed that tariff-related uncertainty is already taking a toll on employment. Markets now widely expect BoC to lower its policy rate by another 25bps this week to to 2.75%, This would serve as an insurance move against further trade disruptions. With inflation well-contained, some analysts believe the central bank would continue cutting at this pace in upcoming meetings until rates reach 2%.

    BoC’s rhetoric will be closely scrutinized to gauge how policymakers assess the risks posed by tariffs and trade disputes. If the central bank signals greater concern over the economic fallout, expectations for a sustained easing cycle will strengthen. The stance will be critical in shaping near-term movements in Canadian Dollar, which has just had a roller-coaster ride last week on tariff news.

    Looking south, US inflation data are another pivot point for global markets. Both headline and core CPI rates are expected to edge lower, from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 3.3% to 3.2%, respectively. Yet the outcome remains uncertain due to possible tariff-induced price hikes—or, conversely, weaker consumption dampening inflation. With a surprise in either direction, Fed’s near-term policy path could be thrown into disarray. March is still widely expected to be a hold, but May is increasingly up in the air.

    Adding to the US economic picture is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which carries added significance. The recent stock market selloff was closely tied to poor January consumer sentiment. Any notable deterioration in confidence could drive renewed risk aversion, compounding existing concerns about trade and growth.

    Elsewhere, other key data, including UK GDP, Japan cash earnings, and household spending, will round out a relatively less busy week for global markets.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan average cash earnings; Germany industrial production, trade balance; Swiss SECO consumer climate; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
    • Tuesday: New Zealand manufacturing sales; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business sentiment; Japan household spending, GDP final.
    • Wednesday: Japan BSI manufacturing, PPI; US CPI, BoC rate decision.
    • Thursday: Swiss PPI; Eurozone industrial production; US PPI, jobless claims.
    • Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Germany GDP final; UK GDP, production, goods trade balance; Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale sales; US U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.26; (P) 147.73; (R1) 148.51; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support. On the upside, 149.32 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another fall.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan 2.80% 3.20% 4.80% 4.40%
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.10% 3% 2.90%
    23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jan 1.94T 1.99T 2.73T
    05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Jan P 108 108.1 108.4 108.3
    05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb 48.5 48.6
    07:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Jan 1.50% -2.40%
    07:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 21.2B 20.7B
    09:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar -10 -12.7

     



    Source link

  • Bitcoin Roars Back as Trump Plans Strategic Crypto Reserve; Tariffs, Geopolitics, NFP and ECB to Move Markets

    Bitcoin Roars Back as Trump Plans Strategic Crypto Reserve; Tariffs, Geopolitics, NFP and ECB to Move Markets


    Bitcoin led the charge in an otherwise quiet Asian session, rebounding over 20% from last week’s low after a major announcement from US President Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency sector saw dramatic relief from its steep selloff last week, as Trump revealed the creation of a strategic crypto reserve, including Bitcoin, Solana, XRP, and other digital assets.

    The wording of the post also drew attention, with Trump emphasizing that BTC and ETH would be at the “heart of the reserve.” Unlike a simple stockpile, which implies holding onto existing government-owned crypto assets, a reserve suggests active purchases in regular installments.

    However, the move has not been without criticism. Crypto purists argue that Bitcoin and other decentralized assets were created to exist outside government control, and they reject the notion of a nation-state amassing a large share of the market. Some others see the announcement as politically motivated rather than a structural shift in policy, raising concerns about long-term regulatory implications.

    Technically, Bitcoin’s strong rebound ahead of 73812 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 15452 to 109571 at 73617) suggests that price actions from 10957 are likely forming a medium term consolidation pattern only, rather than bearish trend reversal. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 95271) will solidify this bullish case, and extend range trading below 109571 for a while before eventual upside breakout.

    Meanwhile, in the currency markets, Euro is leading gains, followed by Sterling and Aussie. Dollar is the worst performer, trailed by Kiwi and Yen. Swiss Franc and Loonie are positioning in the middle.

    Looking ahead, multiple US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are set to take effect on Tuesday, March 4, and speculation is mounting over retaliatory measures. China has already hinted at countermeasures, including tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and non-tariff barriers.

    On the geopolitical front, all eyes will be on the US response to a new UK-EU effort to draft a Ukraine peace plan, a move coming on the heels of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s high-profile clash with Trump at the Oval Office just two days ago.

    In addition, crucial US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing and services indexes, will be closely watched. Across the Atlantic, ECB is expected to cut interest rates again this week, continuing its “regular, gradual” easing.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.70%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.30%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.47%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.029 at 1.405.

    Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 49 in Feb, modest improvement but outlook remains weak

    Japan’s manufacturing sector showed slight improvement in February, with PMI finalized at 49.0, up from 48.7 in January. However, the sector remains in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles with weak demand.

    According to Usamah Bhatti at S&P Global Market Intelligence, manufacturers cited soft global and domestic demand, with “muted conditions” in key markets such as the US, Europe, and China. Additionally, purchasing activity saw a solid and sustained decline.

    The “near-term outlook remains clouded”. Business confidence fell to its lowest level since mid-2020, driven by growing concerns over the impact of US trade policies and a slower-than-expected global economic recovery.

    China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing rises to 50.8, but employment remains a concern

    China’s Caixin PMI Manufacturing climbed to 50.8 in February, up from 50.1, exceeding expectations of 50.3.

    Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, noted that new export orders rebounded, corporate purchasing increased, and logistics remained smooth. However, employment continued to decline, and output prices stayed weak.

    Additionally, official PMI data released over the weekend further reinforced signs of recovery. The official PMI Manufacturing rebounded from 49.1 to 50.2, marking its highest level since November and moving back into expansionary territory. Additionally, the non-manufacturing PMI, which covers services and construction, ticked up to 50.4 from 50.2.

    Market sentiment hinges on US NFP, ECB cut and other data to watch

    While trade war and geopolitics might continue to dominate headlines, key economic events this week could also inject extra volatility into the markets.

    The week’s most significant market-moving event could come from the US. February non-farm payrolls report will be a crucial test for investor sentiment, particularly after recent economic data—including consumer confidence, business activity, and retail sales—showed signs of weakness. Additionally, ISM manufacturing and services data will provide further insight into business conditions. The impact of tariffs on the economy is beginning to surface in economic data, and a set of disappointing data could amplify the emerging concerns.

    It should noted that while a softer NFP print could bring forward expectations for a Fed rate cut, optimism about policy easing may be overshadowed by broader economic worries, which would drive further volatility across asset classes. The key is whether the job market can hold up against growing uncertainty, or if fears of a sharper slowdown will escalate.

    ECB is widely anticipated to proceed with its “regular, gradual” approach to policy easing at its meeting this week, with a 25bps cut to the deposit rate, bringing it down to 2.50%. The latest Economic Bulletin suggests policymakers see neutral rate in the range of 1.75%-2.25%, implying that further rate reductions beyond this week’s move will be calculated cautiously.

    Analysts largely expect two more 25bps cuts by ECB in Q2 to bring an end to the cycle. But the outcome could vary depending on economic growth and inflation developments. Markets will closely analyze ECB’s updated economic projections hints on the central bank’s view, at least the base case.

    Eurozone inflation data will also be in the spotlight. February’s flash CPI is expected to show headline inflation falling to 2.3%, following four consecutive months of increases. Core inflation, which has remained at 2.7% for five straight months, is projected to ease to 2.5%.

    Beyond the US and Eurozone, Australia will also be in focus. Although RBA initiated its easing cycle in February, policymakers have remained cautious about further cuts. RBA meeting minutes will provide more details on the board’s thinking regarding the next steps. Additionally, Australia’s Q4 GDP and January retail sales data will offer insight into whether more imminent easing is necessary.

    Other key data releases include Canada’s employment report and China’s Caixin PMIs.

    Here are some highlights for the week

    • Monday: Japan PMI manufacturing final; China Caixin PMI manufacturing; Swiss PMI manufacturing; Eurozone CPI flash, PMI manufacturing final; UK PMI manufacturing final; Canada PMI manufacturing; US ISM manufacturing, construction spending.
    • Tuesday: New Zealand building permits; Japan unemployment rate, capital spending, monetary base, consumer confidence; Australia RBA minutes, retail sales; Eurozone unemployment rate.
    • Wednesday: Australia GDP; China Caxin PMI services; Eurozone PMI services final, PPI; UK PMI services final; US ADP employment, ISM services, factory orders, Fed’s Beige Book report.
    • Thursday: Australia building permits, goods trade balance; Swiss unemployment rate; UK PMI construction; Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, US jobless claims, trade balance; Canada Ivey PMI.
    • Friday: China trade balance; Germany factory orders; Swiss foreign currency reserves; Eurozone GDP revision; Canada employment; US non-farm payrolls.

    EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6660; (P) 1.6717; (R1) 1.6768; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays on the upside for the moment. As noted before, consolidation from 1.6800 should have already completed with three waves down to 1.6355. Firm break of 1.6800 resume the rise from 1.5963 to 61.8% projection of 1.5963 to 136800 from 1.6355 at 1.6872, and then 100% projection at 1.7192, which is close to 1.7180 high. On the downside, below 1.6657 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again first.

    In the bigger picture, with 1.5996 key support (2024 low) intact, larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.

    D

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q4 3.10% 1.50% 2.40% 2.50%
    00:00 AUD TD-MI Inflation Gauge M/M Feb -0.20% 0.10%
    00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Feb F 49 48.9 48.9
    01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Feb 50.8 50.3 50.1
    08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Feb 48.4 47.5
    08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Feb F 45.5 45.5
    08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb F 46.1 46.1
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb F 47.3 47.3
    09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Feb F 46.4 46.4
    09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Jan 66K 67K
    09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jan 0.20% 0.10%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb P 2.30% 2.50%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb P 2.50% 2.70%
    14:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Feb 51.6
    14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Feb F 51.6 51.6
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb 50.8 50.9
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Feb 56.2 54.9
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Feb 50.3
    15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Jan -0.10% 0.50%

     



    Source link

  • Safe-Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Rally Amid Trade, Geopolitical Turmoil

    Safe-Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Rally Amid Trade, Geopolitical Turmoil


    Market sentiment took a decisive turn for the worse last week, with risk aversion dominating across asset classes. The combination of deteriorating domestic economic conditions in the US and heightened global uncertainties has fueled concerns that risk appetite could weaken further. Equities faced renewed selling pressure, yields dropped sharply.

    Domestically, US economic data painted a troubling picture. Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply, while weak personal spending data and a rise in jobless claims suggested that the labor market could be facing new headwinds. With the economy looking increasingly fragile, concerns are mounting that the economy may struggle to maintain momentum, reinforcing speculation about Fed rate cuts.

    Externally, the risk of a full-blown trade war continues to escalate. US President Donald Trump doubled down on his aggressive tariff agenda, reaffirming the March 4 deadline for 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and indicating that the EU would be next in line with reciprocal tariffs.

    Geopolitical tensions also worsened, particularly after a dramatic Oval Office showdown between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The meeting, initially expected to pave the way for a mineral deal between the US and Ukraine—potentially a step toward resolving the Russian invasion—ended in failure. With US-Ukraine relations strained and no clear resolution in sight, uncertainty in the region remains elevated.

    On the bright side, markets have scaled up expectations for a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year. However, it’s unclear whether additional monetary easing will truly bolster risk sentiment or simply underscore the extent of the economic challenges ahead. A rate cut could offer short-term relief for risk assets, but it might also underscore fears of an impending downturn in domestic activity.

    In the forex market, Dollar emerged as the clear winner for the week, benefiting from risk aversion rather than rate expectations. Sterling and Swiss Franc followed as the next strongest currencies, with the UK seemingly avoiding US tariff threats and the Franc gaining from both risk aversion and Euro weakness. At the other end of the spectrum, commodity currencies struggled, with New Zealand Dollar leading the declines, followed by Australian and Canadian Dollars. Meanwhile, Euro ended in a mixed manner, with the initial post-German election boost fading as tariff threats weighed. Yen also struggled to extend its rally, leaving it stuck in the middle of the performance ladder.

    Investors Pin Hopes on Fed Easing as Stocks Sell Off, But Is Relief Temporary?

    US equity markets ended February on a weak note, with NASDAQ suffering a sharp -3.5% weekly decline despite a late recovery. S&P 500 also lost nearly -1%, while DOW managed to close about 1% higher, benefiting from recovery after leading the selloff earlier in the month. However, the broader market sentiment remained fragile.

    For the entire month, NASDAQ dropped -4%, marking its worst monthly performance since April 2024. S&P 500 fell -1.5%, while the DOW ended down -1.6%. Several factors weighed on market sentiment, including intensifying trade war risks, particularly as the scheduled 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico approach on March 4. The more consequential reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, also remain a source of significant uncertainty.

    US economic data further exacerbated concerns, with sharp decline in consumer confidence, jump in jobless claims, and contraction in personal spending, all pointing to risk of extended weakness in household demand. These indicators have fueled doubts about the strength of US consumption, which remains a critical driver of economic growth.

    With these headwinds and decline in PCE core inflation as released on Friday, expectations for another Fed rate cut in the first half of the year continued to rise. Fed fund futures now price in a 94% probability of a 25bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% in June, up significantly from 63% just a week ago. This growing optimism about resumed Fed easing has provided some support to market sentiment. But it remains unclear whether it will be enough to reverse the pre-dominating risk-off mood or merely slow the pace of decline.

    Technically, NASDAQ is tentatively drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 15708.53 to 20204.58 at 18487.09. Strong rebound from current level, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 19440.85) will suggest that the corrective pattern from 20204.58 has completed. That will also keep the medium term up trend intact for another rally through 20204.58 at a later stage.

    However, sustained break of 18487.09 will raise the chance that a larger scale correction has already started. In the bearish case, NASDAQ should be correcting whole uptrend from 10088.82 (2022 low). Further break of 55 W EMA (now at 17866.91) will confirm this bearish case and pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.58 at 16340.36.

    Risk Aversion Drags Yields Down, But Lifts Dollar Higher

    Risk aversion was also evident in the US bond markets, with 10-year Treasury yield tumbling sharply to its lowest level since December. The sharp drop highlights growing concerns over economic uncertainty and trade tensions.

    Technically, current development suggests that rise from 3.603 (2024 low) has completed at 4.809 already, well ahead of 4.997 (2023 high). Current fall is seen as another downleg in the sideway corrective pattern from 4.997. Deeper decline is expected to 61.8% retracement of 3.603 to 4.809 at 4.063 next. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 4.452) holds, in case of recovery.

    Dollar Index clear reacted more to risk aversion than falling yields and Fed cut expectations. The’s strong bounce towards the end of the week and the break of 55 D EMA (now at 107.31) suggests that fall from 110.17 has completed at 106.12. That came after defending 38.2% retracement of 100.15 to 110.17 at 106.34. Further rise should be seen to 108.52 resistance. Firm break there will target a retest on 110.17 high.

    In the bigger picture, Dollar Index is holding comfortably above 55 W EMA (now at 105.37), and thus rise from 100.15 and 99.57 should still be intact. Break of 110.17 will pave the way back to 114.77 (2022 high) at a later stage.

    NZD/USD and AUD/USD Sink, Eye 2025 Lows for Support

    Kiwi and Aussie were the worst-performing currencies last week, each losing around -2.4% against the greenback. With risk sentiment deteriorating downside pressure on these two currencies could persistent. The key focus now is whether risk aversion would intensify and push NZD/USD and AUD/USD through this year’s lows to resume the long term down trend. There these key support levels could offer a breather to them.

    Technically, NZD/USD’s steep decline last week suggests that corrective rebound from 0.5515 should have completed at 0.5571 already. Retest of 0.5515 should be seen next. Strong support from there could bring rebound to extend the corrective pattern with another rising leg. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6378 to 0.5515 at 0.5848 holds. Firm break of 0.5515 will resume the long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7463 to 0.5511 from 0.6378 at 0.5172.

    Similarly, AUD/USD’s corrective rebound from 0.6087 should have completed at 0.6407. Retest of 0.6087 low should be seen next. Strong rebound from there would extend the corrective pattern with another rising leg. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413 holds. Firm break of 0.6087 will resume the long term down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806.

    Bitcoin and Gold Tumble on Risk-Off Sentiment

    Bitcoin and Gold struggled under renewed risk aversion last week, extending their losses in line with broader market weakness. While Gold retains a comparatively better outlook, both assets remain vulnerable to ongoing volatility.

    Bitcoin suffered a sharp fall, decisively breaking 89127 support, confirming medium-term topping at 109571. The current slide is seen as a correction of the entire uptrend from the 15452 (2022 low). Deeper decline toward 55 W EMA (now at 74129) is expected.

    Strong support could emerge from the 73812 cluster zone (38.2% retracement of 15452 to 109571 at 73617) to bring rebound, at least first attempt. However, downside risks remain as long as 55 D EMA (now at 95288) caps any recovery.

    Decisive break of 73617/73812 zone could extended the decline to 50k mark, which is close to 49008 support and 61.8% retracement at 51405.

    By contrast, Gold’s outlook is less overtly bearish. 2956.09 is seen as a short term top only, for now. Subsequent pullback is viewed primarily as a correction of the rise from 2584.24. Strong support might be seen from 55 D EMA (now at 2792.05) to bring rebound, and set the base for uptrend resumption at a later stage.

    However, considering that Gold was just rejected by 3000 psychological level sustained trading below 55 D EMA would argue that larger scale correction in underway. In the bearish case, Gold could be starting a medium term decline back to 55 W EMA (now at 2522.33).

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/USD reversed after edging higher to 1.0527 last week, and the development suggests that consolidation from from 1.0176 has already completed. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.0176/0210 support zone first. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 1.1213, and carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 1.0419 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds.

    In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

    In the long term picture, down trend from 1.6039 remains in force with EUR/USD staying well inside falling channel, and upside of rebound capped by 55 M EMA (now at 1.0929). Consolidation from 0.9534 could extend further and another rising leg might be seem. But as long as 1.1274 resistance holds, eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.



    Source link

  • Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus

    Greenback Drops Ahead of Consumer Data, Risk Sentiment in Focus


    Dollar weakened notably against European majors and Yen as markets transitioned into US session, despite subdued overall trading activity. The decline was largely driven by extended fall in US 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its lowest level since mid-December.

    Beyond geopolitical and trade war concerns, market focus has turned toward whether slowing US consumption and softer economic data could force Fed to resume rate cuts sooner than expected, even as inflation remains elevated. Fed funds futures now price in a near 65% chance of a 25bps rate cut in June, a notable increase from 45% just a week ago.

    The next catalyst for Dollar’s direction will be consumer confidence report, set for release shortly. However, Dollar’s next moves may not be straightforward, as risk aversion—if it intensifies—could provide some support due to safe-haven demand. US stocks, particularly the tech-heavy NASDAQ, could be vulnerable on the upcoming Nvidia earnings report later in the week.

    For now, commodity currencies are under the most pressure, with Kiwi leading the declines. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest performer, followed closely by Sterling and Euro. Dollar and Yen are positioned in the middle.

    Looking ahead to the Asian session, Australia’s monthly CPI reading will draw attention. Consensus suggests inflation might edge up from 2.5% to 2.6% in January, supporting RBA’s cautious stance even after it initiated its easing cycle earlier this month. Still, a downside surprise would provide RBA with added confidence to proceed with additional rate cuts if economic conditions worsen.

    Technically, EUR/AUD’s rebound is gaining some momentum today. Firm break of 1.6631 resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 1.6800 has completed, and larger rise from 01.5963 is finally ready to resume through 1.6800.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.47%. DAX is up 0.43%. CAC is up 0.04%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.0475 at 4.525. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.0012 at 2.479. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.39%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.32%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.80%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.30%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.0511 to 1.376.

    ECB’s Nagel expects more rate cuts Amid encouraging price trends

    German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that incoming data suggests the central bank is on track to achieve its inflation target this year, opening the door for further rate cuts.

    Speaking today, Nagel stated, “This would allow us on the Governing Council to lower the key interest rates further,” reinforcing expectations that ECB will continue its gradual easing cycle.

    However, Nagel also cautioned against premature optimism, highlighting “persistently elevated core inflation and the undiminished strength of services inflation.”

    Bitcoin breaches 90K, double top breakdown could trigger deep correction

    Bitcoin’s selloff intensified today, plunging below the 90k mark and hitting its lowest level since November. The immediate catalyst appears to be last week’s massive hack of USD 1.5B worth of Ether from cryptoexchange Bybit—an incident researchers have labeled the biggest crypto heist on record.

    Although Bybit has announced that it fully restored the stolen Ether, market sentiment remains firmly negative, as traders grow wary of systemic risks and question the exchange’s ability to prevent future breaches.

    Technically, Bitcoin now hovers at a critical juncture. The key 89,127 support level is under heavy pressure, and decisive break there would complete a double top pattern (108368, 108571). Such a development would strongly indicate that a larger-scale correction is underway.

    In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin could be entering a correction of the entire rally from 15,452 (2022 low). The correction could target 73,812 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 15,452 to 109,571 at 73,617) before completion.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2594; (P) 1.2643; (R1) 1.2673; More…

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2522 resistance turned support holds. Above 1.2689 will resume the rally from 1.2099 to 1.2810 resistance next. However, firm break below 1.2522 will argue that the rebound might have completed, and bring deeper fall to 1.2331 support.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Jan 3.10% 2.90% 2.90% 3.00%
    07:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q4 F -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
    14:00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Dec 4.30% 4.30%
    14:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Dec 0.20% 0.30%
    15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Feb 103.3 104.1

     



    Source link

  • Trade War 2.0 Shakes Global Markets as Dollar Rallies

    Trade War 2.0 Shakes Global Markets as Dollar Rallies


    Global markets kicked off February under heavy strain as US President Donald Trump’s long-anticipated tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China came into full effect. Investor sentiment turned sharply negative, with Japan’s Nikkei tumbling over 1,000 points in response. Dollar opened the week with a strong gap higher and maintained solid gains throughout Asian session. Commodity-linked currencies bore the brunt of the selloff, particularly New Zealand and Australian Dollars, which struggled even more than Canadian Dollar—despite Canada being directly targeted by the new tariffs. Meanwhile, Euro and Pound also weakened, though not as severely as the major commodity currencies.

    Looking ahead, the trade dispute theme should continue to dominate market sentiment for the foreseeable future. The US administration has hinted at the likelihood of expanding tariffs to Europe and possibly the UK, though there appears to be some willingness to discuss matters further with London. Beyond trade tensions, upcoming events such as BoE’s policy decision—which is widely expected to involve a 25bps rate reduction—will also command attention. Additionally, a series of key US data releases, including the ISM manufacturing and services indexes plus non-farm payrolls, could further influence the risk mood.

    Another noteworthy shift is taking shape in the cryptocurrency market, where both Bitcoin and Ethereum have taken a steep hit. Although the new tariffs reaffirm Trump’s commitment to his promises—such as turning the US into a major crypto hub—virtual currencies have not benefitted. Instead, global uncertainty has driven investors toward safer assets, prompting a retreat from riskier corners of the market.

    Technically, for now, there’s no panic for Bitcoin yet as 89127 support remains intact. The recent up trend is still in favor to resume for another take on 100k market at a later stage. However, firm break of 89127 support will complete a double top pattern, and could trigger deeper correction back to 73812 resistance turned support and possibly below.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.74%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.74%. China is on holiday. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0118 at 1.230.

    Trade War 2.0 kicks off, USD/CAD breaks key resistance with 1.50 in sight

    The long-anticipated escalation in trade tensions has officially materialized as US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs over the weekend. A 25% tariff is now in effect on imports from Canada and Mexico, while China faces a 10% levy on its exports to the US. The move, widely expected, marks the formal start of what is being called Trade War 2.0.

    In immediate response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on USD 155B worth of US goods, while China indicated that it would file a case against the US at the World Trade Organization.

    Dollar gapped higher as the week started in response to the development. USD/CAD broke through 1.4689 key resistance (2016 high) to resume the long term up trend. Technically, the next medium term target for USD/CAD is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993.

    Though given the scale of uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute, further upside cannot be ruled out. A lack of near-term resolution could see USD/CAD extend even higher toward 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2005 at 1.5270 before topping.

    BoJ opinions signal more rate hikes as inflation risks tilt higher

    BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from the January 23-24 meeting indicates a growing shift toward policy normalization, as multiple board members highlighted mounting inflationary pressures.

    Rising import costs driven by the weak yen have led more businesses to raise prices, prompting concerns that inflation could overshoot expectations.

    One member noted that with economic activity and prices remaining stable, “risks to prices have become more skewed to the upside,” emphasizing that rate hikes should be “timely and gradual.”

    Some policymakers warned that continued Yen depreciation and excessive risk-taking could lead to an overheating of financial activities. To counter this, one board member argued for additional rate hikes to stabilize the currency and prevent further distortions in market expectations regarding BoJ policy.

    At the January meeting, the BoJ raised its short-term policy rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, marking another step away from ultra-loose monetary policy. The central bank also revised its price forecasts higher, reinforcing its confidence that rising wages will sustain inflation near the 2% target.

    Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.7, deepest contraction in 10 Months

    Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 48.7 in January, down from December’s 49.6. This marks the sharpest decline in output since March 2024, as firms faced a steeper drop in new orders. Weak demand conditions forced manufacturers to scale back production, reflecting ongoing headwinds for the sector.

    According to S&P Global, businesses reacted to falling demand by cutting both inventories and raw material holdings, while also reducing input purchases at the fastest pace in nearly a year. Employment growth also slowed, highlighting a cautious approach to hiring amid economic uncertainty.

    Despite the downturn, manufacturers maintained a positive outlook for future output, though confidence fell to its lowest level since December 2022. While firms expect a recovery in demand, concerns persist over when such an improvement will materialize. The slowdown in input price inflation to a nine-month low provides some relief, but overall, sentiment remains fragile.

    Australia’s retail sales dip -0.1% mom in Dec, less than expected

    Australia’s retail sales turnover edged down by -0.1% mom in December, a smaller decline than the expected -0.7% mom. While the contraction marks a pullback from the strong growth seen in previous months—0.7% mom in November and 0.5% in October mom—it suggests that consumer spending remains relatively resilient.

    According to Robert Ewing, head of business statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail activity was supported by extended promotional events, helping to smooth spending patterns over the quarter. He noted that Cyber Monday, which fell in early December, boosted demand for discretionary items, particularly furniture, homewares, electronics, and electrical goods.

    China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing slips to 50.1, growth momentum weakens

    China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.1 in January from 50.5 in December.

    According to Caixin Insight Group, manufacturers saw improved logistics and a slight pickup in supply and demand. However, employment levels deteriorated notably, and new export orders remained weak, reflecting sluggish global demand.

    External risks also remain a key concern, with rising geopolitical uncertainty adding pressure to China’s export environment. Disruptions in global trade policies could further dampen overseas demand, making it difficult for manufacturers to sustain current production levels.

    Domestically, consumer spending remains sluggish, highlighting the need for policy measures aimed at boosting disposable income and restoring confidence.

    BoE Set to Cut, NFP to Steer Dollar Outlook

    This week’s forex market focus will largely center on BoE upcoming policy decision, where a 25bps rate cut to 4.50% is widely anticipated. Along with the rate announcement, traders will closely watch the MPC voting breakdown and the release of new economic projections.

    Data from the UK since November’s rate cut have painted a mixed picture: GDP growth has stagnated, inflation has eased, but wage growth has unexpectedly picked up. These conflicting signals leave the door open for surprises when the MPC releases its updated forecasts.

    The general consensus favors a gradual easing path for BoE, with a quarterly tempo of 25bps cuts, totaling 100bps for the entire year. However, market expectations are somewhat more conservative, pricing in just over 75bps of easing in 2025.

    Heightened uncertainty stems from several factors, including the domestic effects of the Autumn budget and the fallout from US tariff threats. The new projections and the voting details could help clarify the BoE’s assessment of these risks, especially regarding inflation and growth outlooks.

    MPC voting will be a prime area of focus. Known hawk Catherine Mann aligning with the broader committee in supporting a cut would send a notably dovish signal. Conversely, if the typically dovish Swati Dhingra refrains from advocating a 50bps cut, markets could interpret that as unexpectedly “hawkish”. The interplay of these votes will likely set the tone for Sterling, as traders decipher how unified or divided the committee is on monetary policy strategy.

    Beyond BoE decision, US non-farm payrolls report and ISM manufacturing and services data will grab attention too. After last week’s FOMC hold, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated explicitly that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut rates further, even though policy easing remains on course.

    The futures market currently suggests a better-than-even chance that Fed will keep policy on pause at least until May. Unless this week’s data delivers significant surprises—either in job growth or wage pressures—this expectation is unlikely to shift meaningfully.

    The key question revolves around the pace of easing in the second half of the year and the eventual terminal rate. However, given Powell’s recent comments, it’s unlikely that these questions will be answered in the near term.

    Elsewhere, key economic indicators from Eurozone, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will also contribute to currency market movements. In particular, Eurozone’s CPI flash, Japan’s wage and household spending, Canada’s employment report, Australia’s retail sales and New Zealand’s employment data will be closely watched.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: BoJ summary of opinions, Japan PMI manufacturing final; Australia retail sales, build approvals; China Caixin PMI manufacturing; Swiss PMI manufacturing; Eurozone PMI manufacturing final, CPI flash; UK PMI manufacturing final; US ISM manufacturing.
    • Tuesday: Japan monetary base; US factory orders.
    • Wednesday: New Zealand employment; Japan labor cash earnings; China Caixin PMI services; Eurozone PMI services final, PPI; UK PMI services final; US ADP employment, trade balance, ISM services; Canada trade balance.
    • Thursday: Australia trade balance, NAB quarterly business confidence; Swiss unemployment rate; Eurozone retail sales; BoE rate decision; US jobless claims, non-farm productivity; Canada Ivey PMI.
    • Friday: Japan household spending, leading indicators; Germany industrial production, trade balance; Swiss foreign currency reserves; Canada employment; US non-farm payrolls.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6189; (P) 0.6226; (R1) 0.6249; More…

    AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6941 resumed by breaking through 0.6130 support today. Intraday bias is back on the downside fro 61.8% projection of 0.6687 to 0.6130 from 0.6329 at 0.5985 next. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6329 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6511) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
    00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.10% -0.70% 0.80% 0.70%
    00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Dec 0.70% 1.00% -3.60% -3.40%
    00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jan F 48.7 48.8 48.8
    01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jan 50.1 50.5 50.5
    08:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Jan 48.4
    08:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jan F 45.3 45.3
    08:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan F 44.1 44.1
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F 46.1 46.1
    09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jan F 48.2 48.2
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan P 2.40% 2.40%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan P 2.60% 2.70%
    14:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Jan 52.2
    14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jan F 50.1 50.1
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan 49.3 49.3
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jan 52.6 52.5
    15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jan 45.3
    15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Dec 0.30% 0.00%

     



    Source link

  • Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record

    Greenback Eases Ahead of Trump’s Executive Actions, Bitcoin Takes Leads and Hits New Record


    Dollar is trading slightly lower today as markets await Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President. Attention is focused on his inaugural speech, expected to confirm his policy priorities. However, the real market-moving event is likely to be the series of executive actions Trump has promised to enact immediately.

    Over 200 directives are anticipated, including legally binding executive orders and proclamations, with particular interest in measures affecting tariffs and deregulations in sectors like energy and cryptocurrencies.

    One key area of focus is Trump’s potential tariff policies, which would surely reshape US trade relationships with allies and adversaries and impact global market. Deregulation efforts, spanning traditional energy sectors to the fast-growing cryptocurrency industry, are also expected to influence investor sentiment.

    Meanwhile, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, reflecting the renewed bullish sentiment in cryptocurrencies. Technically, next near term target is 61.8% projection of 49008 to 108368 from 89127 at 125812. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 89127 support holds, even in case of pull back.

    While Trump’s inauguration and executive actions are dominating headlines, global markets are also preparing for several other key events. BoJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate. UK employment data will provide insight into the labor market’s response to the Autumn Budget. Inflation data from Canada and New Zealand will help shape monetary policy projections of BoC and RBNZ. PMI data from major economies will round out the week’s events.

    ECB’s Holzmann: January rate cut not as certain with elevated inflation risks

    Austrian ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann expressed skepticism over a potential rate cut at ECB’s upcoming January meeting. In an interview with Politico, Holzmann stated, “A cut is not a foregone conclusion for me at all,” emphasizing his commitment to approaching the discussion with an “open mind.”

    Holzmann highlighted that ECB decisions are fundamentally data-driven and noted that inflation remained “well above” 2% in December, with January figures expected to reflect similar levels. He cautioned that “cutting interest rates when inflation rises faster than anticipated, even temporarily, risks hurting credibility.”

    As a known policy hawk, Holzmann also revealed increased doubts about inflation settling around ECB’s 2% target by the end of the year. He cited unexpected developments since the December decision, including faster-than-expected depletion of gas reserves due to colder weather, the effective closure of the Ukraine gas transit, and the risks of persistently high energy prices.

    China maintains LPR as offshore Yuan recovers ahead of key support

    China’s central bank maintained its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate was steady at 3.1%, while the over-five-year LPR, which influences mortgage rates, remained at 3.6%.

    The offshore Yuan strengthened notably against the Dollar, continuing to draw support from a a key long-term level. This comes despite market speculation that China might allow Yuan to weaken further to counteract the economic effects of new tariffs introduced under Donald Trump’s presidency.

    A weaker currency would bolster export competitiveness by making Chinese goods more affordable internationally. However, Beijing faces a dilemma: while a controlled depreciation could help exporters, an uncontrolled fall could lead to heightened volatility in domestic financial markets and reduced investor confidence.

    Acknowledging these risks, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to exchange rate stability last week, stating, “We will resolutely prevent the risk of the exchange rate overshooting, ensuring that the Yuan exchange rate remains generally stable at a reasonable, balanced level.”

    Technically, a short term top should be confirmed at 7.3694 in USD/CNH with today’s dip. But it’s early to call for bearish reversal as long as 55 D EMA (now at 7.2797) hits. Further rally remains in favor through 7.3745 (202 high) to resume the long term up trend.

    Nevertheless, firm break of 55 D EMA should bring deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 6.9709 to 7.3694 at 7.2172, which is close to 55 W EMA (now at 7.2097) even just as a correction to rise from 6.9709.

    From BoJ to inflation data and PMIs, global markets have more to focus on than Trump

    While the inauguration of Donald Trump dominates the headlines in US markets, global investors are turning their attention to a week packed with pivotal high-impact economic events that would provide crucial clues about the monetary policy paths of key economies.

    BoJ’s upcoming meeting is a top priority for global markets. After repeated signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda and other top officials, markets should be well-prepared for a 25bps rate hike, raising the policy rate to 0.50%. However, beyond the rate decision, the focus will shift to BoJ’s updated economic projections and policy guidance.

    While Ueda is expected to remain cautious about committing to a specific timeline for normalization, he may strike a more optimistic tone regarding wage growth, based on reports from branch managers. Additionally, BoJ could raise inflation forecasts in its quarterly outlook, both of which would add hawkish tones to the meeting.

    In the UK, attention is squarely on employment data, which will shed light on the labor market’s response to the government’s Autumn Budget. The markets are already pricing in over 75 basis points of BoE rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, IMF is projecting an even deeper 100bps reduction. The strength of the labor market will play a pivotal role in determining the scale of monetary easing this year, making this release a key driver for Sterling sentiment.

    Inflation data from Canada and New Zealand also hold significant importance. In Canada, BoC has indicated that the pace of rate reductions will slow, but uncertainty remains over the timing of pauses. A Reuters poll suggests an 80% chance of a 25bps cut on January 29, following December’s larger 50-bps move. CPI data will either reinforce or challenge this expectation.

    Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Q4 inflation report is expected to show further easing in price pressures, consistent with RBNZ’s forecasts. If the trend persists, RBNZ could deliver another 50bs rate cut at its February meeting

    Other data to watch this week include Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and PMI reports from several major economies. These releases will provide additional context on global economic momentum and inform central bank decisions in the months ahead.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan machine orders, tertiary industry index; Germany PPI; Swiss PPI; BoC business outlook survey.
    • Tuesday: New Zealand BNZ services; UK employment; Germany ZEW economic sentiment; Canada CPI.
    • Wednesday: New Zealand CPI; UK public sector net borrowing: Canada IPPI and RMPI.
    • Thursday: Japan trade balance; Canada retail sales; US jobless claims.
    • Friday: Australia PMIs; Japan CPI, PMIs, BoJ rate decision; Eurozone PMIs; UK PMIs; Canada new housing price index; US PMIs, US existing sales.

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0247; (P) 1.0289; (R1) 1.0313; More…

    EUR/USD recovers mildly today but stays in the middle of near term range above 1.0176. Intraday bias stays neutral and outlook remains bearish with 1.0435 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Nov 3.40% -0.70% 2.10%
    00:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Jan 1.70% -1.70%
    01:00 CNY 1-y Loan Prime Rate 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
    01:00 CNY 5-y Loan Prime Rate 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
    04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.30% 0.10% 0.30% 0.10%
    04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Nov F -2.20% -2.30% -2.30%
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Dec -0.10% 0.30% 0.50%
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Dec 0.80% 1.10% 0.10%
    07:30 CHF PPI M/M Dec 0.00% 0.20% -0.60%
    07:30 CHF PPI Y/Y Dec -0.90% -1.50%
    15:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey

     



    Source link