Macro investors are struggling to find good trades ahead of the July 9 deadline for the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff pause, choosing instead to focus on the ‘day-to-day’.
Traders are having to navigate multiple discrete risk events, such as central bank, G7 and Nato meetings, before the tariff pause ends, and are unsure whether the deadline will move again.
“Both of those things make it difficult to put on trades right now,” says Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates strategy at Nomura. “Trying
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Having a stable of high-end trading platforms can be a blessing – and a curse. And while experience and familiarity are valuable, legacy systems eventually start to creak and crawl.
Around 2019, State Street realised it had a problem as it looked to build upon and expand its suite of foreign exchange and cash solutions. Through acquisitions and in-house builds, the bank amassed several popular, but ageing, platforms. There’s FX Connect, which turns 30 this year. Fund Connect will celebrate its
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When the New Taiwan dollar (TWD) surged unexpectedly on May 2 and 5, the country’s giant life insurers were immediately blamed for the move, given their huge size relative to the Taiwanese domestic market.
Market participants, however, have mixed views on how active the insurers really were – but they agree the moves were exacerbated by hedge funds betting on the currency’s rise after the central bank decided not to intervene aggressively to halt its wild appreciation.
“This has been driven by
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European asset managers and pension funds are adding more currency hedges to their US equity portfolios following a breakdown of the so-called ‘dollar smile’.
The greenback typically appreciates when US stocks are booming or under extreme stress. For foreign investors, the phenomenon – known as the dollar smile – offers a natural hedge against sharp sell-offs in US holdings.
The tariffs unveiled by US president Donald Trump on April 2 turned the relationship on its head. The S&P 500 shed 5%
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Goldman Sachs was the top US dealer for foreign exchange trading revenues in 2024, which more than doubled at the firm thanks to increased trading activity at the end of the year, according to regulatory filings.
The investment bank generated revenues of $6.3 billion for the year, up 125% from $2.8 billion in 2023, thanks to just over $4 billion in the final quarter of the year alone. This growth propelled the bank to overtake JP Morgan’s 2023 top spot.
JP Morgan suffered the greatest dip among
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FX options venue SpectrAxe has hired Robert Schultz as chief operating officer for the Americas, effective April 21.
Schultz joins from Deutsche Bank where he worked for more than 12 years, most recently serving as a product manager and vice president in FX prime brokerage and algo trading.
In his new role, Schultz is tasked with expanding the credit intermediation network for SpectrAxe’s central limit orderbook (Clob) for all-to-all trading of over-the-counter FX options.
“We are bringing in
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US president Donald Trump’s whipsawing tariff policies created a perfect storm for foreign exchange options dealers, as hedge funds rushed to short US dollar positions while systematic volatility sellers and large macro funds sat on the sidelines.
The ensuing volatility left traders wondering if they had slipped into the wrong desks, or even another dimension.
“The scale of the moves for EUR/USD on April 11 made it more volatile than USD/TRY on the day,” says Saurabh Tandon, global head of FX
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The sharp fall in the US dollar following President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement saw intense activity on foreign exchange options desks, leaving dealers rushing to buy volatility to re-hedge EUR/USD books as spot surged.
“It was manic… it almost made the Turkish lira [moves] irrelevant,” says one head of FX derivatives at a large European bank.
The US Dollar Index fell 3.2% overnight after the announcement on April 2, one of its worst days since 2022, as investors fretted
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Hedge funds are turning once again to hybrid options – a standout feature of 2024’s wave of ‘Trump trades’. This time, though, firms are using the structure to express views on tariffs and the threat of recession.
Investors placed high numbers of hybrid option bets on US exceptionalism in 2024, as they correctly predicted that a victory for Donald Trump in November’s election would drive US equities and rates higher and strengthen the US dollar.
Trump’s tariff policy has since whipped up fears of
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In the US, March Madness is synonymous with the annual knockout college basketball tournament, known for its unpredictable results and stunning turnarounds.
But the country has seemingly exported this concept to its foreign policy in the past month, with shifting tariff threats, territorial disputes and abortive peace talks with Russia putting foreign exchange on the front line of market reaction (cue the Make FX Great Again slogans…).
All this has come much to the delight of foreign exchange options dealers, where for the first time in a long while clients all have a different idea of where they think the US dollar will go. But US president Donald Trump’s continued flip-flopping over when and by how much to impose trade tariffs has made it extremely difficult for people to take a clear view.
There are those that assume Trump’s policies are artificially weakening the currency – for instance, Treasury secretary Scott Bessant recently said the dollar’s decline is a “natural adjustment” after years of strengthening.
Everyone seems to have a different view, which is music to the ears of market-makers
Meanwhile, Germany’s landmark plans to increase defence spending have reawakened euro volatility, flipping market sentiment to euro/US dollar call trades, with some now putting on positions of EUR/USD grinding higher.
Additionally, traders have also flocked to historical safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Dealers suggest US dollar/yen has undergone one of the biggest adjustments to date, with the consensus trade amongst hedge funds being to place short-dated topside USD/JPY calls as a hedge against falling equity markets.
Others, perhaps, are positioning for a dollar rebound – as the underlying factors that drove the dollar higher and threats of tariffs on Europe remain – and are now taking advantage of a more favourable entry point. Even with the sharp rise in EUR/USD in recent weeks, for example, some traders still have parity bets on.
Leveraged structures such as European knockouts and put spreads have also seen demand to cheapen these positions.
Meanwhile, a pause by the Bank of Japan on further rate rises has led to a rise in USD/JPY, and traders are also positioning for a weakening of the Swiss franc in anticipation of expected rate cuts.
Everyone seems to have a different view, which is music to the ears of market-makers, even if they’ve had to adjust to a new focus on Asia hours trading. Volumes are good, but when those volumes are multi-directional, it makes it even easier to match speculative bets with corporate and private bank supply. Those with a large enough franchise will be able to capture even more flow and provide tighter liquidity.
It’s also been bringing new hedgers into the market. Real money firms holding US equities are said to be considering hedging downside dollar risk, given typical “markets down, dollar up” correlations have not been holding as they once did.
And it’s not just in the G10. Emerging markets have also felt some excitement, with prospects of a truce in the Ukraine-Russia war seeing the ruble gain a lot of strength this year, and yet more political turmoil in Turkey causing USD/TRY to take off once again.
But it hasn’t been smooth sailing for everyone. Some clients have been hurt, most notably Brevan Howard, which reported its worst start to the year as a result of wrong-way bets, via FX options, on US dollar strengthening. If clients lose money, that often means a decline in volumes.
Furthermore, corporates and pension funds that had moved to lock-in strong USD hedges in January and February are not as nimble when reassessing these positions – they often must go through several layers of board approvals first.
Nevertheless, high vols and a high-vol surface, coupled with a liquid market, do suggest a healthier FX options market for dealers. And the likely continuation of Trump-related headline risk and central bank event risk means dealers are even more optimistic that this buoyant volatility market will continue.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s second US presidency, many of his tariff-related social media posts have tended to appear late New York time.
This piles extra pressure on the Asia trading session when G10 currencies are less liquid and creates risk management challenges for foreign exchange options market-makers.
Barry McCarthy, head of FX derivatives trading for North America at Deutsche Bank, says this is particularly the case if news lands when markets are closed over the weekend, making Asia
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The so-called Trump trade of going long the US dollar via foreign exchange options has seemingly come to a sudden stop following the euro’s massive rally last week, forcing traders to U-turn on their bets.
“I think the Trump trade is now dead and all the USD calls that were bought in various forms are either worthless or unwound,” says an FX options trader at one UK hedge fund.
The move also created hedging headaches for market-makers trying to manage their options exposures as euro/US dollar
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Citi is deploying its new-look single-dealer platform (SDP) to emerging markets in a bid to offer better and faster electronic onshore pricing to users through a single gateway.
Following the relaunch of Velocity 3.0 in 2023, the US bank has focused on consolidating its various electronic foreign exchange pricing platforms – including CitiFX Pulse, its execution and treasury management platform for corporate clients – into a single application programming interface (API).
“A key deliverable for us
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Dual currency notes find favour with treasurers under pressure to boost yields amid higher rates
Some corporate treasurers are taking advantage of more volatile foreign exchange and interest rate markets to invest their foreign cash holdings into yield-enhancing structured products, as an alternative to deposits or money market funds.
Dealers say corporate treasurers are increasingly under pressure to improve returns on cash in the higher-rate environment, and have been turning to dual currency notes (DCNs) as a result. Rising FX volatility and wider interest rate differentials result in a
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Dealers say vanillas, digitals and knockouts on realised vol increasingly used to navigate Trump news flow
Hedge funds are increasingly taking out complex options structures that speculate on pricing of foreign exchange volatility levels across several currencies linked to US president Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Investors have increasingly looked to incorporate vol-linked knockouts in vanilla FX options to cheapen them up and avoid crowded barrier zones. Others have looked at options directly on realised volatility, including spread trades across multiple currencies.
“We continue to see a very inverted
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Leveraged forwards and options-based structures entice treasurers facing rates uncertainty and FX volatility
The shake-em-up economic policies trailed by new US president and so-called “disruptor-in-chief” Donald Trump have left corporate treasurers on both sides of the Atlantic nervously eyeing their cost of foreign exchange hedging.
FX volatility has spiked amid continued threats by Trump of tough tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. Meanwhile, interest rate differentials between the US and Europe are expected to widen as analysts forecast higher-for-longer rates from the Federal
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In a challenging environment, demand for J.P. Morgan’s FX overlay market services has risen significantly as market participants seek to navigate the hedging and execution complexities of the FX market
The awards
Best FX overlay manager
Best liquidity provider for FX spot
Best liquidity provider for FX options
Best liquidity provider for financial institutions
Best single-dealer platform
The storm of geopolitical, economic and regulatory events that has rocked the FX market over the past few years has made managing currency risk a difficult proposition. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, heightened volatility stemming from diverging interest rate regimes, and the impact from the introduction of the standardised approach to counterparty credit risk have prompted many institutional managers to re-evaluate their hedging strategies and overall currency risk. Many have turned to FX services providers such as J.P. Morgan to manage that risk.
“In the current environment, market participants are particularly keen to have firms that are FX experts facilitate their currency risk management functions,” says Sashin Chander, J.P. Morgan’s global head of currency overlay solutions.
“J.P. Morgan is the logical partner. We have one of the most complete suites of FX execution capabilities on the Street. Whether pricing, cost-effectiveness, credit risk or any other objective, we have an execution capability.”
“Beyond our suite of execution capabilities, our data insight is also impactful,” Chander adds. “As one of the biggest FX banks1, we generate a lot of data, but what makes it worthwhile for our clients is how we use that data to fine-tune the outcome of their workflows: by optimising the process of calculating FX risk and executing their hedges.”
J.P. Morgan’s FX Services data strategy provides clients with greater market transparency, enabling a view of the cost of liquidity and the cost of capital where liquidity in the competition execution model is selected, earning the bank recognition during the awards process.
While J.P. Morgan provides a rules-based solution to managing its clients’ FX overlay strategies, the bank also reports on the performance of clients’ hedging portfolios using the data it has gathered. Analysis of the factors contributing to the FX hedge’s under- or over-performance – such as cost of carry, bid/offer spread and time delay – can then be used to recalibrate clients’ hedging strategies to improve economic outcomes.
This includes the use of FX heat maps that allow clients to visualise liquidity patterns, FX spreads and trading volumes – which helps clients identify opportunities to improve the execution quality of their FX orders – using the execution methodology that best fits their objective. Furthermore, the bank can analyse clients’ specific currency overlay data and past activities with them, delivering tailored insights and empowering clients to optimise their hedging strategies and make informed decisions to improve outcomes.
Clients are also given access to a suite of customisable trade reports supported by downstream integration with industry‑wide systems, or other client-specific platforms, enabling a detailed view of the services J.P. Morgan is providing them. With this oversight, clients can measure the execution quality of processed trades, which can help with efficient cashflow management.
On the execution side, J.P. Morgan addresses its clients’ needs through a rules-based approach that enables them to define their own bespoke execution strategies across a full suite of methodologies. This includes @marketexecution, where all trades are sent to J.P. Morgan’s internal market-making desks for immediate pricing. Alternatively, client orders can be executed referencing a supported public benchmark or, if preferred, through the bank’s suite of algorithmic execution strategies.
The last alternative is a hybrid model that combines the operational ease of principal trading with the competitive pricing benefits that agency execution can provide. Dubbed Liquidity in Competition (LiC), this hybrid solution provides pricing across a pool of preferred liquidity providers with the benefit of facing J.P. Morgan as the only counterparty. As a result, participants avoid the operational work of maintaining pre- and post-trade workflows with multiple banks.
Another benefit is that the competitive nature of pricing through LiC can assist in satisfying clients’ best execution obligations and, with trades channelled through J.P. Morgan, information leakage to the market is minimised, which can result in a better outcome. When clients seek liquidity under their own ticker/fund name, details are revealed as to which fund is looking for a price in which currency and size, and so on.
“Since dealers compete for trades, client costs are reduced, but they still benefit from J.P. Morgan’s credit standing to secure the best price available on their panel of predefined banks,” says Chander. “Our dedicated FX Services desk sits separately from the market-making business and is not judged on profit and loss but rather on the quality of execution and minimising market impact.”
“With central banks adjusting interest rates at different paces, the biggest likely cost for clients is the interest rate differential,” he notes. “While they cannot control the cost of carry, LiC allows them to control the cost and quality of execution. Clients benefit from the breadth of access to liquidity, lower costs and market impact for asset managers and owners that routinely roll large, passive hedges.”
Adding granularity to hedging models
As the portfolio hedging market becomes more mature, Chander expects clients will want to add greater granularity and optionality into their overlay strategies, while maintaining some form of tactical control to direct the outcome of their hedges.
Megan Jones, J.P. Morgan
“Asset owners, such as Australian superannuation funds, have complex currency hedging needs, and many of the enhancements to our portfolio hedging currency overlay offering have been built with these in mind,” says Megan Jones, head of Asia-Pacific FX Services sales at J.P. Morgan. “One enhancement, as institutional investors continue to internalise investment management functions, is the ability to automatically adjust the accompanying hedge in line with the trading of the underlying security for asset classes such as fixed income. This will mitigate risk arising from a delay between the trading of the asset and adjusting the accompanying hedge, allowing the portfolio manager to focus on managing the underlying asset class.”
“We are investing heavily in our portfolio hedging capabilities to create a lot of flexibility in our platform,” says Chander. “I want to create a platform that is so flexible and so intuitive that, to a portfolio manager, it feels like we are sitting on the other side of their desk. And, with that flexibility, we’re going to see more proliferation in the delegation of portfolio currency risk management.”
“The key to achieving any level of granularity in portfolio optimisation is large quantities of correctly targeted data,” he points out – without which, actionable insights cannot be delivered. “But there has to be the right balance in the amount of data we deliver. It should not be excessively complex, but just enough that clients can hold us to account while being straightforward enough that they can fine-tune their strategies every so often to focus on their core businesses.”
J.P. Morgan was voted Best FX overlay manager, Best liquidity provider for FX spot, Best liquidity provider for FX options, Best liquidity provider for financial institutions and Best single-dealer platform at the FX Markets e-FX Awards 2024.