Tag: Gold

  • Gold price in United Arab Emirates: Rates on April 21

    Gold price in United Arab Emirates: Rates on April 21


    Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

    The price for Gold stood at 398.67 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 392.97 it cost on Friday.

    The price for Gold increased to AED 4,649.99 per tola from AED 4,583.58 per tola on friday.

    Unit measure Gold Price in AED
    1 Gram 398.67
    10 Grams 3,986.68
    Tola 4,649.99
    Troy Ounce 12,399.97

     

    FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

     

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

    (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)



    Source link

  • Gold ends week higher despite Powell’s pushback, trade uncertainty lingers

    Gold ends week higher despite Powell’s pushback, trade uncertainty lingers


    • Gold rallies $90 this week as the US Dollar weakens amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
    • Fed’s Daly says policy is still restrictive; neutral rate may be rising, echoing Powell’s hawkish tone.
    • Traders focus on key US data next week: Flash PMIs, Durable Goods, and final Consumer Sentiment.

    Gold prices are set to end the week on a positive note, up by over 2.79% as the precious metal enjoyed a $90 US Dollar (USD) rally due to the latter weakness sponsored by uncertainty about global trade. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,326.

    XAU/USD holds at $3,326 after hitting ATH of $3,358; real yields rise but long weekend profit-taking caps rally

    European and US markets are closed due to a long Easter weekend, so news flows are light. San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly crossed the wires and said that the economy is in a good place, though some sectors are slowing down. She added that policy remains restrictive in good place, exerting downward pressure on inflation, and added that neutral rates “may be rising.”

    Bullion prices dropped after hitting an all-time high (ATH) of $3,358 as traders booked profits due to the long weekend. Wednesday’s hawkish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell capped the precious metal advance, even though uncertainty over US trade policies and geopolitical risks may underpin Gold prices.

    Yields rose, with the US 10-year T-note yield rising five basis points to 4.333%. US real yields, which are calculated by the yield of the nominal note minus inflation expectations, climb five bps to 2.163%, a headwind for Gold prices.

    Next week, the US economic docket will be packed by a flurry of Fed speakers, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.

    XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    Gold’s uptrend remains intact despite Thursday’s pullback below the $3,330 mark. As prices recover some earlier losses, the lack of downside follow-through suggests limited acceptance of lower levels, keeping the door open for further gains.

    Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains overbought but not yet at the extreme 80 level. However, a mean-reversion move could be on the horizon with the RSI turning lower.

    In that case, initial support lies at $3,300, followed by the April 16 low at $3,229. On the upside, a break above $3,350 could set up a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high, with the next target at $3,400.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



    Source link

  • Gold price loses momentum on profit-taking 

    Gold price loses momentum on profit-taking 


    • Gold price edges lower in Friday’s Asian session, pressured by profit-taking. 
    • Mounting uncertainty about tariffs and recession fears could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
    • Fed’s Daly is set to speak later on Friday. 

    The Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday after retreating from an all-time high of $3,358 as investors book profits during a long Easter weekend. Significant uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports into the US and ongoing geopolitical tensions could underpin the Gold price, which is known as a safe haven asset.

    On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Powell said that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the Fed’s goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly is scheduled to speak later on Friday. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.

    Gold price edges lower on Good Friday

    • “Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements and fears about a global recession,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at online trading broker FXTM.
    • The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This figure came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week of 224K (revised from 223K).
    • Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5 went up by 41K to 1.885M versus 1.844M prior (revised from 1.85M). 
    • The US Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. Meanwhile, Housing Starts declined to 1.324M in March from 1.494M in February (revised from 1.501M). 
    • Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Gold price bullish bias lingers, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls

    Gold price trades on a flat note on the day. The precious metal keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above the 70.00 mark, indicating overbought conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off is on the cards. 

    On the bright side, the immediate resistance level to watch is $3,355, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $3,400 psychological level. 

    In the bearish case, the low of April 18 at $3,230 acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. Further south, the next contention level is seen at $3,105, the low of April 2.  

    Tariffs FAQs

    Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

    Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

    There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

    During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.



    Source link

  • Gold price eases below ,330 after record high as Powell flags stagflation risk

    Gold price eases below $3,330 after record high as Powell flags stagflation risk


    • Gold pulls back from $3,357 all-time high as Powell warns Fed’s goals may conflict, raising stagflation concerns.
    • Market mixed: Dow dips on UnitedHealth crash while other indices see modest gains.
    • Trump signals trade progress with EU and China; ECB cuts rates 25 bps, widening global policy divergence.

    Gold retreated on Thursday ahead of the Good Friday Easter holiday, losing 0.60%, after enjoying a rally of close to $400 gains during the last seven trading days on uncertainty about the United States’ (US) trade policies. /USD trades at $3,319 after hitting a record high of $3,357 earlier in the session.

    Market mood closed the last trading day of the week mixed, with two of the three main US indices posting gains, while the UnitedHealth Group plunge hit the Dow Jones. Wednesday’s speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues to be digested by the markets.

    Fed Chair Powell turned hawkish, revealing that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the central bank’s two goals, making a stagflationary scenario possible.

    “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” he said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

    Regarding trade talks, Trump said they’re doing well and added that he is very confident about a trade deal with the European Union (EU) and China.

    Data-wise, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier and the US economic docket revealed the US labor market remains solid, but not so housing, after printing strong Building Permits figures, but weak Housing Starts.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price falls as US yields rise

    • The US 10-year Treasury yield rises five basis points to 4.333%. US real yields followed suit, climbing five bps to 2.163%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields failing to cap Gold prices.
    • US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 came in at 215K, down from 224K and below the 225K forecast—highlighting continued strength in the labor market.
    • Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. In contrast, Housing Starts dropped sharply from 1.494 million to 1.324 million, indicating softness in residential construction.
    • In rates markets, money market traders have priced in 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retraces, but remains poised to test new record highs

    The uptrend in Gold prices remains despite retreating somewhat on Thursday, below the $3,330 figure. As the precious metals trim some of their earlier losses, price action indicates the lack of acceptance of lower prices, opening the door for further upside.

    From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought but not near the 80 extreme level. Nevertheless, as the RSI aims lower, it suggests that a mean reversion move is on the cards. In the event of that outcome, XAU/USD’s first support would be the $3,300 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the April 16 daily low of $3,229.

    If bulls push prices past $3,350, they could test the year-to-date (YTD) peak, followed by $3,400.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



    Source link

  • Strong China Data Fails to Buoy Risk Sentiment; BoC Stuck Between Cutting and Holding

    Strong China Data Fails to Buoy Risk Sentiment; BoC Stuck Between Cutting and Holding


    Risk sentiment turned a bit subdued in Asia today. Markets are broadly soft, continuing to digest the sharp tariff-driven selloff seen earlier this month. Even China’s stronger-than-expected Q1 data, including a 5.4% GDP growth print and robust industrial and retail figures, failed to provide much lift. Market participants appear skeptical, viewing the numbers as a front-loading of activity ahead of the full brunt of US and China tariffs , which are already reaching decoupling levels. The real test for China’s resilience will come in the months ahead as trade disruptions deepen.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is broadly weaker once again, giving back recent recovery as sentiment fluctuates. Aussie and Loonie are also underperforming. On the other hand, Swiss Franc has returned to the top of the board, followed by Euro and Yen, as investors rotate back into safer havens. Sterling and Kiwi are holding steady in the middle.

    BoC rate decision later today is a major focal point, and markets are evenly split on the outcome. Yesterday’s softer-than-expected inflation data reinforced the view that February’s CPI spike was likely transitory, giving BoC room to cut rates from 2.75% to 2.50%. With US tariffs weighing on global demand and sentiment, a preemptive move to cushion the Canadian economy would be defensible.

    However, some argue BoC may prefer to hold for now, especially to assess the medium-term inflationary effects of tariffs. While headline CPI is easing, trade-related supply disruptions and currency depreciation could generate renewed price pressures in the months ahead. Balancing these competing risks will be no easy task, and with the policy rate already cut sharply from its 5.00% peak, the central bank has room to wait for greater clarity.

    Gold, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the uncertain backdrop, with prices pushing to new all-time highs. Technically, D MACD suggests that the up trend is still in upside acceleration phase. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 3167.60 resistance turned support holds. The question is whether overbought condition would cap upside at 161.8% projection of 2293.45 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3387.52. Or Gold would just shoot through the roof.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.36%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.46%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.63%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.15%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.052 at 1.323. Overnight, DOW fell -0.38%. S&P 500 fell -0.17%. NASDAQ fell -0.05%. 10-year yield fell -0.041 to 4.323.

    BoJ’s Ueda: US tariffs nearing bad scenario, policy response may be needed

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that US President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff policies have “moved closer towards the bad scenario” anticipated by the central bank.

    “We will scrutinise without pre-conception the extent to which US tariffs could hurt the economy,” he said in an interview with Sankei newspaper.

    “A policy response may become necessary. We will make an appropriate decision in accordance with changes in developments,” he added.

    Nevertheless, Ueda reiterated that BoJ will continue to raise interest rates “at an appropriate pace” as long as economic and price conditions align with its projections.

    On inflation, Ueda said domestic food price pressures are expected to ease. He sees real wages turning positive and continuing to rise into the second half of the year, supporting consumption and price stability.

    Still, he warned of dual risks: persistent inflation driven by global supply shocks, or a consumption drag caused by the rising cost of living.

    Australia Westpac leading index falls as tariff shock starting to weigh

    Australia’s Westpac Leading Index slipped from 0.9% to 0.6% in March. Westpac noted that the index has only just begun to reflect the escalating disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2.

    While the immediate impact on Australia is seen as limited and manageable for now, “some further softening in the growth pulse looks likely in the months ahead”.

    Westpac has revised down its growth forecast for Australia in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.2%, citing the accumulating downside risks.

    Looking ahead to RBA’s May 19–20 meeting, Westpac expects the deteriorating global backdrop and clearer signs of inflation cooling will prompt a 25bps rate cut.

    Moreover, the tone of the meeting is likely to pivot more decisively “away from lingering questions about inflation to downside risks to growth.” Such a shift would lay the groundwork for additional policy easing in the second half of the year.

    China Q1 GDP tops forecasts with 5.4% growth

    China’s economy started the year on a stronger footing, with GDP expanding by 5.4% yoy in Q1, surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, growth slowed to 1.2% from 1.6% in Q4.

    March’s activity indicators were broadly upbeat. Industrial production surged by 7.7% yoy, well above the 5.6% yoy forecast. Retail sales climbed 5.9%, also ahead of expectations of 5.1% yoy.

    Fixed asset investment increased 4.2% year-to-date, modestly exceeding projections. However, persistent weakness in the property sector continues to weigh on the recovery narrative. Property investment fell -9.9% in Q1, slightly worse than the -9.8% decline recorded over the first two months of the year. Private sector investment—a key gauge of business confidence—rose only 0.4%.

    Looking ahead

    UK CPI and Eurozone CPI final are the main features in European session. Later in the day, US will release retail sales, industrial production and NAHB housing index. BoC rate deision will also be a major focus.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3882; (P) 1.3930; (R1) 1.4010; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3827. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.4150 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3827 will resume the fall from 1.4791 to 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773.

    In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high) and 55 W EMA (now at 1.3983) indicates that a medium term top is already in place at 1.4791. Fall from there would either be a correction to rise from 1.2005, or trend reversal. In either case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Feb 4.30% 1.10% -3.50%
    01:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar -0.10% 0.06%
    02:00 CNY GDP Y/Y Q1 5.40% 5.10% 5.40%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 7.70% 5.60% 5.90%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 5.90% 4.10% 4.00%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Mar 4.20% 4.10% 4.10%
    06:00 GBP CPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.40%
    06:00 GBP CPI Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.80%
    06:00 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Mar 3.40% 3.50%
    06:00 GBP RPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.60%
    06:00 GBP RPI Y/Y Mar 3.20% 3.40%
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb 37.3B 35.4B
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar F 2.20% 2.20%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar F 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Mar 1.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar 0.40% 0.30%
    13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.30% 0.70%
    13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 77.90% 78.20%
    13:45 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M 2.6M

     



    Source link

  • Safe Havens Surge, Treasury Rout Deepens, US Assets Hit by Relentless Selloff

    Safe Havens Surge, Treasury Rout Deepens, US Assets Hit by Relentless Selloff


    The brief moment of optimism following the US tariff truce has quickly faded, as financial markets buckle again under renewed pressure. US stocks closed sharply lower overnight, wiping out a large portion of Wednesday’s historic rebound. The risk-off tone spilled into Asia, though unevenly—Japan saw steep losses, Singapore posted moderate declines, while Hong Kong and China held relatively steady. Overall, the ongoing huge volatility suggests that global markets are far from stabilizing.

    The trade war narrative has shifted into a far more dangerous phase. The US confirmed that tariffs on Chinese imports were immediately raised to 125% after China responded with an 84% rate of its own. That brings total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 145%. At these levels, the tariff figures themselves become much less relevant. The policy is signaling a structural decoupling of the world’s two largest economies.

    Yet, the most alarming development is unfolding in the US Treasury market as 10-year yield surged past 4.45% mark again in Asian trading. This sharp reversal from the temporary calm after the US paused some reciprocal tariffs for 90 days is stoking fears of deeper structural issues in bond markets. This trouble in Treasuries has drawn comparisons to the 2020 “dash-for-cash” and the 2022 UK gilt crisis.

    In the currency markets, the flight to safety is clear, just not into Dollar. Swiss Franc surged to its highest level against the greenback since 2015, while Euro and Yen also strengthened markedly. Altogether, markets appear to be undergoing a synchronized flush-out of US assets, with investors dumping stocks, Dollar, and even Treasuries.

    Technically, Gold defied gravity again and surged to new record high above 3200 market. For now, further rise is expected as long as 3103.02 support holds, or in short 3100 mark. Next target is 161.8% projection of 2293.45 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3387.52.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -4.36%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.76%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.32%. Singapore Strait Times is down 1.94%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.024 at 4.46. Overnight, DOW fell -2.50%. S&P 500 fell -3.46%. NASDAQ fell -4.31%. 10-year yield fell -0.006 to 4.394.

    Fed’s Goolsbee: No playbook for tariff shock, rate path uncertain but likely lower

    Speaking overnight, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that nothing is “off the table”, including rate hikes, cuts, or holds. The sheer scale of recent trade developments creates a stagflationary shock, and there is “not a generic playbook” for how a central bank should respond to.

    Also, Goolsbee noted a key challenge: the data being released now may not yet fully reflect the evolving reality on the ground. That’s why he believes Fed must closely monitor both hard data and soft indicators, especially as lag effects complicate interpretation.

    Despite the tariff-related uncertainty, Goolsbee still sees rates trending lower over the next one to two years. Nevertheless, he stressed that should long-run inflation expectations begin to drift, “any central bank almost has to address that… regardless of what the other conditions are.”

    Fed’s Collins: Tariff-driven price pressures may delay further policy normalization

    Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in a speech overnight that keep interest rate at current level is “appropriate for the time being” due to the “highly uncertain environment.”

    Collins acknowledged that “renewed price pressures” from tariffs could “delay further normalization of policy”.

    “Confidence is needed that the tariffs are not destabilizing inflation expectations,” she emphasized.

    She added that any “preemptive action” to support growth would require a “compelling” signal that economic activity is deteriorating more than expected.

    Although she expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% target, she acknowledged that core inflation may rise “well above” 3% in the near term due to higher import costs. In her view, the Fed must remain vigilant to ensure these pressures do not become entrenched.

    NZ BNZ manufacturing falls to 53.2, new orders signal trouble ahead

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index slipped slightly from 54.1 to 53.2 in March, but remained firmly in expansion territory. Production climbed to 54.2, the highest level since December 2021. Employment also posted a robust 54.7, marking its strongest result since mid-2021. However, a decline in new orders, which dipped below the 50-neutral mark to 49.6, raises concerns about the durability of this rebound.

    BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard acknowledged the resilience in activity and employment, but highlighted persistent challenges. Despite improving sentiment, nearly 58% of surveyed manufacturers cited negative conditions, pointing to weak demand, fewer new orders, and uncertainty across both domestic and export channels.

    BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted that the PMI data supports the case for manufacturing GDP growth in early 2025. Still, he cautioned that risks to the outlook are clearly tilted to the downside, “given recent extreme volatility on global markets following rapidly evolving US-driven trade policy changes.”

    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8120; (P) 0.8350; (R1) 0.8467; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside as current selloff accelerates again. Break of 161.8% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8144 will target 200% projection at 0.7976 next. On the upside, above 0.8358 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

    In the bigger picture, the break of 0.8332 (2023 low) confirms resumption of long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9196 at 0.8075. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Mar 53.2 53.9 54.1
    23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Mar 0.80% 1.20% 1.20%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar F 0.30% 0.30%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar F 2.20% 2.20%
    06:00 GBP GDP M/M Feb 0.10% -0.10%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.10% -0.90%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Feb -2.30% -1.50%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Feb 0.20% -1.10%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb -2.40% -1.50%
    06:00 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Feb 0.50% 0.40%
    06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Feb -17.9B -17.8B
    12:30 USD PPI M/M Mar 0.20% 0.00%
    12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Mar 3.30% 3.20%
    12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Mar 0.30% -0.10%
    12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Mar 3.60% 3.40%
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment Apr P 55 57
    14:00 USD UoM Inflation Expectations Apr P 5.00%

     



    Source link

  • Gold price in Malaysia: Rates on April 11

    Gold price in Malaysia: Rates on April 11


    Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

    The price for Gold stood at 458.71 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 453.15 it cost on Thursday.

    The price for Gold increased to MYR 5,350.24 per tola from MYR 5,285.45 per tola a day earlier.

    Unit measure Gold Price in MYR
    1 Gram 458.71
    10 Grams 4,587.01
    Tola 5,350.24
    Troy Ounce 14,267.37

     

    FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

     

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

    (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)



    Source link

  • Dollar Falls as Disinflation Accelerates, EU Holds Fire on Tariff Retaliation

    Dollar Falls as Disinflation Accelerates, EU Holds Fire on Tariff Retaliation


    Dollar faced renewed selling pressure in early US session, as markets digested softer-than-expected inflation data. The latest CPI report confirmed that disinflation is regaining traction, with both headline and core inflation easing more than expected in March. This strengthens the case for Fed to resume its rate cut cycle in the coming months.

    A May rate cut remains unlikely — with Fed fund futures currently pricing in an 84% chance of a hold. Markets are still more confident that a move will come by June, with odds now standing around 78%. If the disinflation trend persists, that expectation could soon become consensus.

    On the trade front, the mood is notably less tense today. The European Union announced a 90-day suspension of its first wave of retaliatory tariffs, originally planned in response to the US’s 25% steel and aluminum duties. This follows US decision to pause the broad reciprocal tariff for 90 days.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized, “We want to give negotiations a chance”. But she also made clear that the EU remains ready to act if talks fail. Preparatory work for broader countermeasures remains underway, with all options said to be “on the table.”

    Despite this temporary de-escalation, overall market sentiment remains shaky. US futures are pointing to a weaker open after yesterday’s massive relief rally, suggesting that investors are still wary of the underlying risks. In contrast, European markets are tracking Asia higher, but overall confidence is fragile.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is currently the worst performer of the week, followed by Sterling and Loonie. Swiss Franc continues to shine as a safe haven, with Aussie and Kiwi showing resilience as well. Meanwhile, Yen and Euro are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, Gold’s rebound from 2956.61 extended higher today. The strong support from 2956.09, as well as rising trend line, keeps Gold’s up trend intact. Nevertheless, corrective pattern from 3167.62 might still be incomplete. Break of 3048.43 support will start another down leg. Though, firm break of 3167.62 will confirm up trend resumption.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 3.84%. DAX is up 4.83%. CAC is up 4.49%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.073 at 4.742. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.049 at 2.640. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 9.13%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.06%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.16%. Singapore Strait Times rose 5.43%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.095 to 1.377.

    US CPI surprise: Both headline and core inflation cools sharply in March

    US inflation came in much softer than expected in March, with headline CPI falling -0.1% mom, surprising markets that had forecast a 0.2% mom increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also underwhelmed with just a 0.1% mom gain, well below the anticipated 0.3% mom. The pullback was led by a -2.4% mom drop in energy prices, while food costs continued to climb, rising 0.4% mom.

    On an annual basis, the CPI decelerated from 2.8% yoy to 2.4% yoy, lower than the expected 2.5% yoy. Core CPI also slowed to 2.8% yoy, down from 3.1% yoy, and marked the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The sharp drop in energy prices, down -3.3% yoy, played a significant role, although food inflation remained sticky at 3.0% yoy.

    US initial jobless claims rise to 223k, vs exp 222k

    US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 223k in the week ending April 5, slightly above expectation of 222k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 223k.

    Continuing claims fell -43k to 1850k in the week ending March 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -250 to 1868k.

    ECB’s Villeroy: Thank God we created Euro, as tariff turmoil undermines Dollar

    French ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized today that while the US has long championed the global centrality of the Dollar, recent policy moves on tariffs are beginning to erode international confidence in the greenback.

    Speaking on France Inter radio, Villeroy said the Trump administration’s approach is “very incoherent,” and suggested that its recent actions “play against the confidence” typically held in Dollar.

    He contrasted this with the Euro, praising Europe’s foresight in establishing its own independent monetary system 25 years ago. “Thank God that Europe… created the Euro,” he noted, adding that the bloc now enjoys “monetary autonomy” that allows ECB to manage interest rates in a way that diverges from US policy, something that was not possible in the past.

    RBA’s Bullock: Too early to call rate path amid tariff-driven uncertainty

    RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated today that it is “too early” to judge how escalating global trade war will shape the path of Australian interest rates. “it’s too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates,” she added.

    Bullock noted that “a period of uncertainty and adjustment” is inevitable as countries react to Washington’s trade moves. RBA plans to stay patient while assessing how these global shocks might affect both supply and demand dynamics. “It will take some time to see how all of this plays out,” she said.

    Japan’s PPI accelerates to 4.2% while import costs ease

    Japan’s PPI rose 4.2% yoy in March, a slight acceleration from February’s 4.1% yoy and topping expectations of 3.9% yoy rise. The increase was broad-based, with notable gains in food prices, which rose 3.1% yoy, and energy costs, with petroleum and coal prices surging by 8.6% yoy.

    Despite the uptick in domestic producer prices, import costs in Yen terms fell -2.2% yoy in March, extending the -0.9% decline in February. Export prices, however, rose a modest 0.3% yoy, slowing sharply from February’s 1.7% yoy growth.

    China’s CPI falls -0.1% yoy in March, PPI highlights persistent deflationary pressures

    China’s consumer inflation remained in negative territory for a second straight month in March, with CPI falling -0.1% yoy, missing expectations of 0.1% yoy increase. While the decline was narrower than February’s -0.7% yoy, it still reflects subdued demand pressures across the economy.

    Food prices was a drag, down -1.4% yoy, while service prices provided only modest support, rising 0.3% yoy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up to 0.5% yoy from 0.3% previously, offering a slight glimmer of resilience.

    However, with headline inflation still hovering around zero and signs of consumer caution persisting, the broader disinflation trend appears entrenched.

    On a monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.4% mom, following February’s -0.2% mom decline, suggesting continued weakness in household spending momentum.

    Meanwhile, producer prices extended their decline for a 30th straight month, with PPI dropping -2.5% yoy, deeper than the expected -2.3%.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0876; (P) 1.0986; (R1) 1.1057; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, but focus is immediately on 1.1145 resistance with today’s rebound. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0176. Next target is 1.1213/74 key resistance zone next. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1145 at 1.0775 to complete the near term consolidation.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Mar 2% 8% 11%
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.10% 3.10% 3.00%
    23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Mar 4.20% 3.90% 4.00% 4.10%
    01:30 CNY CPI M/M Mar -0.40% -0.20%
    01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Mar -0.10% 0.10% -0.70%
    01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Mar -2.50% -2.30% -2.20%
    12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Feb 2.90% -0.90% -3.20% -4.30%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4) 223K 222K 219K
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar -0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.50% 2.80%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.00% 3.10%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 60B 29B

     



    Source link

  • Markets Crumble as Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs, Trade Storm Intensifies

    Markets Crumble as Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs, Trade Storm Intensifies


    The global stock market crash showed no sign of slowing today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index returned from a holiday break and promptly plunged over -10% to catch up with last week’s global carnage. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei suffered another dramatic drop of more than -2200 points, or -6.6%.

    Risk aversion remains the dominant theme as markets digest the full implications of the rapidly escalating trade war. Despite the equity bloodbath, currency markets were relatively calm. Most major pairs and crosses pulled back inside Friday’s ranges after brief spikes.

    Fueling the unease, US President Donald Trump showed no sign of backing away from his aggressive tariff agenda. Over the weekend, he defended the tariffs, likening them to “medicine to fix something” and insisted that countries wishing to avoid the duties must pay the US “a lot of money on a yearly basis.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that more than 50 countries have opened negotiations with Washington since last week’s announcement, suggesting Trump’s strategy is drawing some to the table.

    Indeed, some notable trade partners are quickly moving to avoid being caught in the crosshairs. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te offered to remove trade barriers and match US tariffs with zero duties, while also pledging increased Taiwanese investment in America. That follows Vietnam’s similar proposal last week, raising the possibility that some nations could strike bilateral deals that eliminate tariffs entirely.

    The next few days will be critical. Traders are watching closely to see if any of these bilateral talks bear fruit — specifically, whether they lead to a genuine dismantling of trade barriers. On the other hand, if the US uses these negotiations to extract unrelated concessions, trust may erode further, heightening fears of a full-blown trade conflict.

    The path taken by Taiwan and Vietnam could become a model or a dead-end, depending on how Washington responds. The situation remains extremely fluid as US customs began collecting the baseline 10% tariffs over the weekend, with higher country-specific rates kicking in Wednesday.

    Fed will also be back in the spotlight, with the March FOMC minutes, CPI data, and fresh commentary from policymakers due. Up until last week, Fed officials were signaling a cautious, wait-and-see approach on rate cuts. But the financial market rout has dramatically altered expectations, with Fed funds futures now pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a 25bps cut in May — up from just 14% a week ago.

    A soft CPI print or any hint of dovish pivot in tone from Fed could further fuel expectations of imminent easing—though it would also raise concern that Fed is bracing for deeper economic damage from the trade war

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -5.99%. Hong Kong HSI is down -10.50%. China Shanghai SSE is down -6.39. Singapore Strait Times is down -7.85%. Japan 10-year JGB yiield is down -0.037 at 1.119.

    Japan’s real wages fall again despite nominal pay boost from bonuses

    Japan’s nominal wages rose 3.1% yoy in February, a notable jump from downwardly revised 1.8%yoy in January, matching expectations.

    However, this strong print was largely driven by a surge in special payments, which skyrocketed 77.4% yoy. Regular pay, considered a more stable indicator of wage trends, actually slowed to 1.6% yoy from the prior month’s 2.1% yoy, signaling only moderate momentum in base salary growth.

    Despite the upbeat headline figure, real wages—which adjust for inflation—fell for the second consecutive month, down -1.2% yoy. This came as consumer inflation, as calculated by the labor ministry, remained elevated at 4.3% yoy, down slightly from January’s 4.7% yoy.

    Gold rebounds from sub-3000 dip as market panic deepens in Asia

    Gold had a shaky start to the week, being dragged below 3000 psychological level briefly, alongside broader risk asset liquidation. But as stock markets across Asia extended their crash into Monday, the precious metal caught some safe haven flows and bounced back above 3030 quickly.

    Meanwhile, a critical 2950/60 zone appears to be providing strong support for Gold too. Reaction to this zone would unveil whether the intensifying global trade tensions and deepening equity losses are re-anchoring Gold as a defensive asset.

    The 2950/60 zone marks the confluence of 2956.09 resistance turned support, 38.2% retracement of 2832.41 to 3167.62 at 2960.46, and trend line support at 2957.62.

    Technically, break above 55 4H EMA (now at 3075.81) will set the range for sideway consolidations. That would also keep outlook bullish for extending the long term up trend at a later stage.

    However, sustained break of 2950/60 will argue that Gold is also in medium term correction, with risk of falling back to 2584.24/2789.92 support zone.

    WTI oil breaches 60 as trade war and OPEC+ output plans weigh

    Oil prices extended their steep losses in Asian trading today, with WTI crude briefly dipping below the psychological level of 60 for the first time in nearly four years.

    The persistent global equity selloff and deepening concerns over the economic fallout from the trade war have triggered fears about demand destruction, which remains difficult to quantify. Until there’s clarity on how much global consumption will be impacted, markets are likely to remain under pressure.

    Adding to the bearish tone, OPEC+ announced last week that it would advance the timeline for increasing output, with plans to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, compared to the previous plan of just 135,000 bpd. The supply boost, at a time of growing demand concerns, is exacerbating the imbalance and fueling the sharp price decline.

    Technically, WTI oil might find some support at 100% projection of 81.01 to 65.24 from 72.37 at 56.60 to form a short term bottom. However, firm break of 56.60 could quickly push WTI towards 50 psychological level to 138.2% projection at 50.57.

    Fed’s patience faces test with inflation and consumer sentiment; RBNZ to cut again

    The week ahead is packed with key US economic releases and a major central bank decision in New Zealand, all set against the backdrop of escalating global tariff tensions.

    Fed is clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place. This week’s US CPI data might show a slowdown in both headline and core readings. However, with core reading still hovering around 3%, and risk of tariffs boosting inflation in the near term, there is little room for Fed to rush to resume policy easing.

    Meanwhile, markets, business and consumer sentiment has clearly deteriorated to an extent that recession risks are now real. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will offer a timely snapshot of how households are responding to the reciprocal tariffs that dominated headlines over the past two weeks. The survey window, March 25 through April 7, overlaps with the US announcement and China’s retaliatory move, making it a valuable real-time pulse check on inflation expectations and confidence.

    FOMC minutes are not expected to deliver any surprises. Markets will be keen to learn how much weight the Committee gave to tariff risks during its March discussions. But of course, with reciprocal tariffs now implemented, any earlier assessments may already be outdated. Nevertheless, insights into the range of views within Fed could help shape expectations for the timing of the next policy move.

    On the central banking front, RBNZ is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.50%. This move would be in line with RBNZ’s February guidance, which projected two cuts in the first half of the year to keep inflation within the 1–3% target range. The bank sees 3.00% as the neutral rate, meaning policy will remain mildly restrictive even after the cut. Unless economic conditions have materially changed, a deviation from this path would be surprising.

    However, markets will also be watching how the RBNZ responds to recent global turmoil. The US has slapped a 10% tariff on all New Zealand exports, yet Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has stated that New Zealand will not retaliate. Whether the RBNZ views this as a meaningful threat to growth or simply a policy headwind to monitor could influence how aggressively it plans to ease in the second half of the year.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan labor cash earnings; Germany industrial production, trade balance; Swiss foreign currency reserves; Eurozone retail sales, Sentix investor confidence; Canada BOC business outlook survey.
    • Tuesday: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; US NFIB small business index; Canada Ivey PMI.
    • Wednesday: RBNZ rate decision’ Japan consumer confidence; US FOMC minutes.
    • Thursday: Japan PPI; China CPI, PPI; US CPI, jobless claims.
    • Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Germany CPI final; UK GDP, production, trade balance; US PPI, U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5907; (P) 0.6120; (R1) 0.6252; More…

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 0.6941 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6087 from 0.6388 at 0.5860. On the upside, above 0.6062 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6388 resistance holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.10% 2.80% 1.80%
    05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Feb P 107.9 107.8 108.3
    06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Feb -0.90% 2.00%
    06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 17.8B 16.0B
    07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar 735B
    08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr -8.7 -2.9
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% -0.30%
    14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey

     



    Source link

  • Tariff Shock Hits US Markets Hard, But Global Reactions Split

    Tariff Shock Hits US Markets Hard, But Global Reactions Split


    Reactions in the US markets to the long-anticipated reciprocal tariff announcement were decisively negative. NASDAQ futures tumbled more than -3%, while DOW futures shed as much as -2% at one point. US 10-year yields plunged below the 4.1% mark, highlighting a strong wave of safe haven flows. The reactions confirm what traders feared most—not just new tariffs, but the sheer complexity and breadth of the measures rolled out by the White House.

    However, the global market reaction was more uneven. Japan’s Nikkei plummeted by over -1,000 points, nearly -3%, reflecting its vulnerability given the 24% tariff rate applied to its goods. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s HSI fared relatively better, falling by just -1.5%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index even managed to claw back most of its early mild losses.

    In currency markets, Aussie and Kiwi led the declines, driven by broad risk aversion and China’s exposure to some of the harshest tariff levels. Dollar also came under pressure, as investors pulled out of US assets. Yen emerged as the day’s biggest gainer on classic safe-haven flows, followed by Swiss Franc. Euro, Pound, and Canadian Dollar showed some resilience, as the EU, UK, and Canada either received relatively milder rates or were temporarily spared.

    The White House confirmed a baseline 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with “reciprocal” rates up to 50% going into effect on April 9. Contrary to earlier hopes that the 10–20% range would serve as a maximum cap, these figures now appear to be just the starting point.

    The US claims the new tariffs reflect roughly half of the effective trade barriers faced by American exports, accounting for both monetary and non-monetary impediments. But in practice, this means a steep increase in trade costs.

    Many allies, including the EU (20%) and Japan (24%), were not spared, although Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt. What’s more concerning is that these new tariffs are being layered on top of existing duties. The effective rate for China has ballooned to a staggering 54%, factoring in both new and existing duties.

    The list of exemptions is narrow, covering only certain critical imports such as copper, pharmaceuticals, energy products, semiconductors, and minerals not available domestically.

    Gold, as expected, surged to a fresh record amid the turmoil, but signs of momentum exhaustion are emerging. While further rally is expected, Gold might find strong resistance at 100% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3204.26 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Break of 3100.74 support will indicate short term topping and bring consolidations.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.95%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.77%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.17%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.099 at 1.38. Overnight, DOW rose 0.56%. S&P 500 rose 0.67%. NASDAQ rose 0.87%. 10-year yield rose 0.040 to 4.196.

    Japan’s PMI composite finalized at 48.9, back in contraction

    Japan’s services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

    S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that while new orders and export business in services remained in growth territory, market conditions had clearly softened.

    Additionally, input costs across the private sector rose at the fastest pace in seven months, and output price inflation remained historically elevated.

    Business sentiment also deteriorated, with overall optimism about the year-ahead outlook for output falling to its lowest since January 2021.

    China’s Caixin PMI services rises to 51.9, but deflation and jobs remain concerns

    China’s Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

    According to Caixin Insight Group’s Wang Zhe, both supply and demand showed improvement, particularly in manufacturing. However, service sector employment dragged overall job growth, and price pressures remained weak.

    Despite signs of recovery and a stable start to the year, persistent deflationary pressures and a sluggish job market continue to weigh on sentiment. Wang noted that weak domestic demand and cautious market expectations were limiting momentum.

    Looking ahead

    ECB meeting accounts is a main feature in European session. Eurozone will release PPI and PMI services final. UK will also release PMI services final while Switzerland will publish CPI.

    Later in the day, US ISM services will be the focus, as trade balance and jobless claims will be released. Canada trade balance will also be featured.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.80; (P) 149.64; (R1) 150.19; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 148.69 and retest of 146.52 low should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. Next target is 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. On the upside, above 148.69 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 151.20 resistance to bring another fall.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    00:30 JPY Services PMI Mar F 50 49.5 49.5
    01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Feb 2.97B 5.40B 5.62B 5.16B
    01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Mar 51.9 51.6 51.4
    06:30 CHF CPI M/M Mar 0.10% 0.60%
    06:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Mar 0.50% 0.30%
    07:50 EUR France Services PMI Mar 46.6 46.6
    07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Mar 50.2 50.2
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Mar 50.4 50.4
    08:30 GBP Services PMI Mar 53.2 53.2
    09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Feb 0.40% 0.80%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb 1.80%
    11:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar 103.20%
    12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Feb 2.5B 4.0B
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28) 225K 224K
    12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Feb -110.0B -131.4B
    13:45 USD Services PMI Mar F 54.3 54.3
    14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Mar 53.1 53.5
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 27B 37B

     



    Source link

  • Gold price hits record high past ,100 on trade turmoil, risk aversion

    Gold price hits record high past $3,100 on trade turmoil, risk aversion


    • Gold hits fresh all-time high amid speculation Trump’s April 2 tariffs could target all trade partners.
    • Goldman ups US recession odds to 35% as sentiment deteriorates and Washington signals tolerance for slowdown.
    • DXY and yields rise but fail to dent Gold’s rally as safe-haven flows dominate ahead of key US data.

    Gold prints another record high on Monday, surpassing the $3,100 threshold for the first time and extends its gains to an all-time high of $3,127 before retreating somewhat. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and the April 2 Liberation Day is lingering, with investors shifting risk-averse and flocking to the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,119, up more than 1%.

    Risk appetite deteriorates as traders await the announcement of additional tariffs on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs revealed that the odds of a recession in the United States (US) rose from 20% to 35%, primarily due to business and household pessimism about the outlook, as well as Washington’s tolerance of a deeper economic slowdown.

    Trump’s comments on Sunday on Air Force One increased the chances that tariffs could be universal, instead of the 10 or 15 revealed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “Who told you 10 or 15? You might have heard it, but you didn’t hear it from me,” the President said. “You’d start with all countries. So let’s see what happens.”

    Therefore, Bullion prices exploded, even though US Treasury bond yields had recovered some ground, particularly the coupon of the 10-year T-note. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the buck against a basket of six currencies, climbs 0.24% to 104.25.

    On the data front, the Chicago PMI improved, despite remaining in contractionary territory for the sixteenth straight month. Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls figures.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold prices rises amid firm US Treasury yields

    • The US 10-year T-note yield is flat at 4.257%. US real yields edge down two bps to 1.86%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields.
    • The Chicago PMI data for March rose by 47.6 points from 45.5 and exceeded forecasts of 45.2. Notably, it is the largest level since November 2023, yet it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth consecutive month.
    • Some of the subcomponents improved, like Production, New Orders, Employment, and Order Backlogs. Supplier Deliveries, Inventories and Prices Paid dipped, according to the poll.
    • Last week’s US inflation data held steady, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nevertheless, the risks of a recession drove market participants to price in over 74 basis points of easing toward the end of 2025, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade.
    • In the geopolitics space, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 25%-50% on buyers of Russian oil, if Moscow blocks his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
    • Wall Street’s banks had updated their Gold forecasts last week. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, and Bank of America identified $3,300 as the next target, according to a Kitco article.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price rallies past $3,050, eyes on $3,100

    Gold’s rally expands. The yellow metal is up 18.96% so far this year, and due to uncertainty in the financial markets, the uptrend could continue. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, traders should be aware that, due to the aggressiveness of the move, the most extreme level is 80.

    The XAU/USD’s next resistance would be the psychological $3,150 and $3,200 on the upside. On the other hand, Bullion’s first support would be $3,100. A breach of the latter will expose the March 20 high turned support at $3,057, followed by the $3,000 figure.

    Tariffs FAQs

    Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

    Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

    There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

    During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

     



    Source link

  • Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as “Liberation Day” Looms

    Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as “Liberation Day” Looms


    Risk aversion erupted across Asian markets today, with Japan bearing the brunt of the selloff. Nikkei plummeted by nearly than -4%, marking its worst day in months and sending the index to its lowest level since September last year. The sharp move comes as traders scramble to reassess the impact of US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on all automobile imports, which are set to take effect Thursday. Previously, there had been some hope that Japan, a long-standing US ally, might be spared. But with no signs of exemption, the market is now forcefully pricing in the worst-case scenario.

    Japanese Yen surged broadly on the wave of safe-haven buying, with investors rushing to unwind risk trades amid intensifying global trade tensions. The Yen’s rally was amplified by the direct blow to Japan’s key auto sector, a pillar of its export economy. The sharp shift in sentiment underscores how markets had underappreciated the possibility of Japan being caught in the crossfire of Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

    The turbulence comes just days ahead of the so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when the US is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The threat of a global trade war escalation is now overtaking all other themes in the market, overshadowing this week’s otherwise significant calendar including the US ISM indexes, non-farm payrolls, Eurozone inflation, and RBA rate decision.

    Overall in the currency markets, Yen is by far the top performer today so far, followed by another safe haven Swiss Franc. Sterling is holding up better than most, helped by reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump had “productive” trade talks over the weekend, suggesting the UK may be spared from some of the harsher tariff measures.

    Commodity currencies are the clear losers, with Kiwi and Aussie at the bottom of the board amid their risk-sensitive profiles and economic ties to China. Loonie, Dollar, and Euro are also under pressure, though less dramatically.

    Risk aversion also pushed Gold to new record high above 3100 mark. Technically, the break of medium term channel resistance is a significant sign of upside acceleration. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 3012.27 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3204.26. But considering current momentum, Gold might indeed be having an eye on 161.8% projection at 3434.06, or even 3500 psychological level already.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.95%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.48%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.68%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.044 at 1.510.

    Japan’s industrial production beats with 2.5% mom growth in Feb

    Japan’s industrial production rose 2.5% mom in February, beating market expectations of 1.9% mom gain. The strong growth was driven by key tech-related sectors, with chipmaking machinery output jumping 8.2% and electronic parts and devices surging 10.1%.

    A survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects continued, albeit modest, gains in output of 0.6% mom in March and 0.1% mom in April.

    While the headline data is encouraging, the METI acknowledged that the outlook could quickly shift. Though no direct production impact from the proposed US tariffs has been reported yet, METI emphasized the need to monitor the situation more closely going forward.

    On the consumer side, retail sales grew just 1.4% yoy, missing expectations of a 2.4% rise.

    NZ ANZ business confidence dips to 57.5, rising inflation expectations stir doubts over RBNZ cuts

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence dipped slightly from 58.4 to 57.5 in March. Own Activity Outlook improved from 45.1 to 48.6.

    However, the data also brought a clear warning on inflationary pressures. Cost expectations surged from 71.3 to 74.1, the highest level in a year. Pricing intentions climbed from 46.2 to 51.3, marking the strongest since May 2023.

    Perhaps more importantly, one-year inflation expectations also ticked up from 2.53% to 2.63%, inching further above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target.

    ANZ flagged the rising inflation signals as “a little disconcerting,” cautioning that these developments could influence how enthusiastic RBNZ will be about delivering further rate cuts.

    A rate cut at the April meeting appears locked in, and a second in May is viewed as likely. However, ANZ noted that the odds of a third cut in July are now “more of a coin toss.”

    China’s official PMI manufacturing rises to 50.5, but labor market lags

    China’s official PMI data for March offered modest optimism, with the manufacturing index rising from 50.2 to 50.5, matching expectations and marking its highest level in a year.

    Sub-indices for production and new orders both improved to 52.6 and 51.8, respectively. However, employment index slipped to 48.2, highlighting persistent weakness in labor market conditions within the manufacturing sector.

    Non-manufacturing activity also improved slightly, with the PMI climbing from 50.4 to 50.8, beating expectations of 50.5.

    Still, employment in the non-manufacturing sector deteriorated, with the index falling to 45.8, as both the services and construction sectors shed workers.

    Central banks and top-tier data share spotlight with tariffs

    Markets are understandably fixated on the looming April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US. However, this week is also packed with central bank events and high-impact economic data that could shift sentiment and market direction.

    RBA will be a key event, with broad consensus pointing to a hold at 4.10%. Despite some recent softness in data, RBA officials have maintained a modestly hawkish stance following the February rate cut. A follow-up move in April appears unlikely, especially with the next quarterly inflation report not due until April 30. The big four banks—CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ—all expect the central bank to stay on hold this month.

    Meanwhile, the US will release a slate of economic data, including ISM manufacturing and services indexes and the all-important non-farm payrolls report. ISM manufacturing dipped back into contraction in February, but the services side has remained resilient. So far, tariff threats have not shown up in the ISM data, but it’s unclear whether that changes in March’s readings. The labor market remains a key variable—strong job growth would support Fed’s patient stance. But a sudden deterioration, though likely viewed as noise, could still rattle policymakers.

    The Eurozone’s flash CPI will be equally important as speculation builds over a potential rate pause by the ECB. While some members have floated the idea of holding rates in April, data hasn’t been convincing enough to justify it. This week’s inflation print could be the deciding factor. Additionally, ECB minutes from the March meeting will be dissected for clues about internal divisions and how much weight is being placed on the evolving external risks like tariffs.

    Beyond these, there are several key international releases to keep an eye on. Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey, Canada’s employment data, Swiss CPI, and China’s PMIs will round out a dense calendar.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan industrial production, retail sales; New Zealand ANZ business confidence; China official PMIs; Germany import prices, retail sales, CPI flash; US Chicago PMI.
    • Tuesday: Japan Tankan survey, PMI manufacturing final; China Caixin PMI manufacturing; RBA rate decision, Australia retail sales; Swiss retail sales; Eurozone PMI manufacturing final, CPI flash, unemployment rate; UK PMI manufacturing final; Canada PMI manufacturing; US ISM manufacturing.
    • Wednesday: Japan monetary base; US ADP employment, factory orders.
    • Thursday: Australia trade balance; China Caixin PMI services; Swiss CPI; Eurozone PMI services final, PPI, ECB accounts; UK PMI services final; Canada trade balance; US jobless claims, trade balance, ISM services.
    • Friday: Japan household spending; Swiss unemployment rate; Germany factor orders; UK PMI construction; Canada employment; US non-farm payrolls.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.26; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.79; More…

    USD/JPY’s break of 149.53 support suggests that corrective recovery has already completed at 151.20. That came just ahead of 151.29 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 146.52 at 151.23). Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.23/9 holds in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P 2.50% 1.90% -1.10%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 1.40% 2.40% 4.40%
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Mar 57.5 58.4
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Feb 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.5 50.5 50.2
    01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.8 50.5 50.4
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 2.40% -1.90% -4.60%
    06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb -0.10% 1.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.00% 0.20%
    08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 1.10% 1.30%
    08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 66K 66K
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.30%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 45.4 45.5

     



    Source link

  • Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound

    Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound


    The overall mood in the forex markets remains one of indecision, with major currencies largely range-bound. Yen is attempting a mild rebound after Tokyo’s CPI figures came in stronger than expected, with core-core inflation rising to 2.2% yoy. However, the Japanese currency is still the worst performer of the week, reflecting the broader uncertainty over BoJ’s next move.

    Domestically, the sharp surge in rice prices—up 92.4% yoy—will likely be dismissed by BoJ as a temporary shock stemming from supply issues. What will matter more for policy direction is whether the uptick in rents and service-sector inflation, driven by rising wages, proves to be more persistent.

    At the same time, BoJ Summary of Opinions revealed a clear concern among board members over downside risks from US tariffs and global economic instability. Even though BoJ remains on a path toward further rate hikes, the timing of the next move is now more uncertain. The central bank may opt to delay any action to better assess the economic fallout from global trade policies.

    This cautious stance is mirrored in Fed’s approach as well, with US policymakers signaling patience amid what they describe as a “dense fog” of uncertainty. Tariffs, inflation expectations, and murky consumer sentiment are all contributing to a wait-and-see. While markets still lean toward a June rate cut, the messaging from the Fed increasingly suggests a higher bar for near-term easing.

    Paradoxically, should Fed proceed with a rate cut in June, it could spook markets rather than calm them. A cut might be interpreted not as proactive easing, but as a reaction to more serious underlying weakness in the economy.

    For the week, Canadian Dollar has outperformed. Australian Dollar follows, lifted by strong commodity performance, while Sterling finds support despite softer UK CPI. Meanwhile, Yen remains the weakest, followed by Kiwi and Euro. Dollar and Swiss Franc treading water in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, Gold continues to command attention as its record-breaking rally persists. The precious metal seems to be ignoring what should be formidable resistance at its medium-term rising channel.

    On the downside, break below 3012.37 should indicate a near-term rejection and signal the start of a corrective pullback toward the 2832.31/2956.09 support zone.

    However, sustained trading above the channel could prompt upside acceleration for the medium term. Next target will be 100% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3204.26

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.09%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.87%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.54%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.087%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.044 at 1.547. Overnight, DOW fell -0.37%. S&P 500 fell -0.33%. NASDAQ fell -0.53%. 10-year yield rose 0.031 to 4.369.

    Tokyo CPI core rises to 2.4%, driven by soaring food and rent prices

    In Japan, Tokyo’s CPI core, which excludes fresh food, rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.4% yoy in March, surpassing expectations of 2.2% yoy. Even more notable was the rise in the core, core measure, which strips out both food and energy—climbing from 1.9% yoy to 2.2% yoy, signaling broader-based inflation. Headline inflation also ticked higher to 2.9% yoy from 2.8% yoy.

    The key driver behind the spike was food prices, which surged 5.6% yoy, the fastest pace since January 2024. A standout was the massive 92.4% yoy jump in rice prices, the steepest rise since 1976.

    Adding to the inflationary pressure was the services sector, where prices rose 0.8% yoy, up from 0.6% yoy in February. Rent prices, a key component, increased by 1.1% yoy, the sharpest rise since 1994.

    BoJ opinions highlight tariff risks, but path to further hikes still intact

    The Summary of Opinions from BoJ’s March monetary policy meeting revealed growing concerns over the fallout from US trade policy, particularly the risk that new tariffs could negatively impact Japan’s real economy.

    One board member warned that downside risks from the US have “rapidly heightened”. I f tariff issues worsen, it could have a “negative impact” on Japan’s real economy. BoJ should be “particularly cautious” when considering further interest rate hikes if trade tensions escalate.

    Other members echoed similar concerns, citing elevated uncertainty from tariff threats, global supply chain disruptions, and stiff competition from low-priced Chinese products.

    The tone suggests policymakers are carefully monitoring how these factors affect inflation expectations, wage growth, and investment—particularly among SMEs.

    A separate opinion suggested that as underlying CPI inflation edges closer to the 2% target, BoJ should prepare to shift from accommodative to “neutral” policy.

    Overall, BoJ still sees a path toward rate normalization—contingent on its inflation outlook materializing—but recent developments in global trade and domestic firm performance will dictate the pace and timing of the next move.

    Fed’s Barkin: It’s “zero visibility” fog, pull over and turn on your hazards

    Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that the fast-moving policies of the new administration, particularly around tariffs, have created a “dense fog” of uncertainty. While acknowledging that recent high inflation could amplify the impact of new tariffs, he noted that the ultimate effect remains unknowable given the lack of clarity on final tariff rates and the responses of global actors.

    Barkin warned that this heightened uncertainty is already weighing on sentiment. He explained that for consumers and businesses to spend and invest, “they need to have a certain level of confidence”. Without that, demand may quiet, particularly as markets navigate the unknowns tied to policy shifts and geopolitical developments.

    “It’s not an everyday ‘forecasting is hard’ type of fog,” he said, but rather one that demands a cautious approach—“a ‘zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards’ type of fog.”

    In this context, Barkin reiterated that the Fed’s current moderately restrictive stance remains appropriate. “We are waiting for the fog to clear,” he concluded.

    Fed’s Collins Advocates “active patience” with interest rates

    Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed her full support for Fed to keep interest rates unchanged last week, noting that continued economic uncertainty and inflation risks warrant a cautious approach.

    Collins said that with upside risks to inflation still present, it would likely be appropriate to maintain current policy settings “for a longer time”. She stressed the importance of “active patience” and flexibility as Fed monitors the evolving economy.

    One of the key factors now clouding the outlook is tariffs. Collins acknowledged that new tariffs will almost certainly raise inflation in the near term. However, the longer-term implications depend heavily on how other countries react and whether businesses pass costs onto consumers. These elements could determine whether the inflationary shock is temporary or more persistent.

    Looking ahead

    Germany Gfk consumer sentiment and unemployment; UK retail sales, goods trade balance and Q4 GDP final; Swiss KOF will be released in European session. Later in the day, Canada will release monthly GDP. US will release personal income and spending, and PCE inflation.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.35; (P) 150.75; (R1) 151.45; More…

    No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance is still expected from 150.92 to complete the corrective recovery from 146.52. On the downside break of 149.53 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. However, firm break of 150.92 will argue that fall from 158.86 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance next.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar 2.90% 2.90% 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.20% 2.20%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar 2.20% 1.90%
    23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
    07:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Apr -22.2 -24.7
    07:00 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.30% 1.70%
    07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -16.8B -17.4B
    07:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.10% 0.10%
    07:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -16.7B -18.1B
    08:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Mar 102.6 101.7
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Feb 10K 5K
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Feb 6.20% 6.20%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Mar 97 96.3
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar -10.5 -11.4
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Mar 6.8 6.2
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F -14.5 -14.5
    12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.40% 0.90%
    12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.50% -0.20%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.50% 2.50%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.70% 2.60%
    14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Mar F 57.9 57.9

     



    Source link

  • Sterling and Euro Rebound, Gold Jumps Amid Intensifying Trade Tensions

    Sterling and Euro Rebound, Gold Jumps Amid Intensifying Trade Tensions


    Global headlines remain focused on US President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff regime. But traders are telling a slightly different story. FTSE and DAX slip into negative territory, but the pullback in equities remains limited. Sterling and Euro are both strengthening against Dollar indeed.

    Tones out of London and Brussels are in stark contrast. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled a desire to avoid escalation, saying the UK has no intention to join the trade war at this stage. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a firmer stance, warning the US tariffs would harm businesses and consumers. EU also vowed retaliation with a “robust toolbox.”

    So far, it appears that the bounce in EUR/USD and GBP/USD are mainly due to Dollar’s own weakness. If anything, Dollar’s decline suggests traders might already be pre-positioning for next week’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. But it’s hard to draw firm conclusions yet, especially with quarter-end portfolio adjustments likely distorting some of the price action across assets.

    In the broader currency markets, commodity currencies remain firmly in control. Aussie has taken over as the week’s leader, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. At the other end of the spectrum, Yen remains the weakest. Euro and Dollar are trailing just ahead of Yen, while Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the performance board.

    Technically, Gold is having a strong session, rebounding sharply as traders digest the latest trade rhetoric. Rise from 2832.31 might still have one more leg. But we’d maintain that upper channel resistance (now at around 3080) should post strong resistance to limit upside and bring correction. Break of 3012.37 support will bring deeper pull back to 2956.09 resistance turned support and below.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.84%. DAX is down -1.20%. CAC is down -0.72%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.058 at 4.791. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.026 at 2.774. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.60%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.41%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.005 to 1.592.

    US initial jobless claims falls to 224k vs exp 225k

    US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 224k in the week ending March 22, versus expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -5k to 224k. Continuing claims fell -25k to 1856k in the week ending March 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2k to 1870k.

    Also released, goods exports rose 4.1% mom to USD 178.6B, seasonally adjusted, in February. Goods imports fell -0.2% mom to USD 326.5B. Trade balance reported USD 147.9B deficit, larger than expectation of USD 134.6B.

    Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 2.4% annualized. GDP price index was finalized at 2.3%.

    ECB’s Wunsch: April rate pause should be on the table

    Belgian ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch suggested that pausing rate cuts in April should at least be “on the table”, and highlighted how tariff-induced stagflation poses a policy dilemma.

    Wunsch warned that tariffs would complicate ECB’s path forward: “To the extent that tariffs will impact the economy … this will have an impact on our decision-making,” he noted.

    While downplaying the immediate importance of April’s tariff development, Wunsch stressed that “It’s going to have an impact over the medium term.”

    In contrast, Latvian Governing Council member Martins Kazaks suggested that if ECB’s baseline scenario holds, a “gradual reduction in rates in the future” could be expected.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2858; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2935; More…

    GBP/USD rebounded notably today but stays in range below 1.3013 short term top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Corrective fall from 1.3013 could still extend lower to channel support (now at 1.2806). But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Feb 4.00% 3.80% 3.60% 3.80%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21) 224K 225K 223K 225K
    12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q4 F 2.40% 2.30% 2.30%
    12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Feb P -147.9B -134.6B -155.6B
    12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Feb P 0.30% 0.70% 0.80%
    14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Feb 0.90% -4.60%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 37B 9B

     



    Source link

  • Gold ends week higher despite Powell’s pushback, trade uncertainty lingers

    Gold price in Philippines: Rates on March 27


    Gold prices rose in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

    The price for Gold stood at 5,613.30 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 5,586.39 it cost on Wednesday.

    The price for Gold increased to PHP 65,472.48 per tola from PHP 65,158.58 per tola a day earlier.

    Unit measure Gold Price in PHP
    1 Gram 5,613.30
    10 Grams 56,133.00
    Tola 65,472.48
    Troy Ounce 174,587.00


    FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP)
    to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of
    publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.


    (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)



    Source link

  • Gold bulls remain on the sidelines amid positive risk tone; modest USD strength

    Gold bulls remain on the sidelines amid positive risk tone; modest USD strength


    • Gold price ticks lower on Wednesday amid some USD dip-buying. 
    • A positive risk tone further weighs on the safe-haven precious metal.
    • Trade jitters, US recession fears, and Fed rate cut bets help limit losses. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s move higher and attracts some intraday sellers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and moves back closer to a nearly three-week high touched on Tuesday. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, acts as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. 

    However, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariff plans for next week assists the Gold price to hold above the $3,000 psychological mark. Apart from this, bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, amid fears of a US recession, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. 

    Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders seem non-committed amid mixed fundamental cues

    • The US Dollar retreated from a nearly three-week high after data released on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index fell for a fourth straight month, to a four-year low level of 92.9 in March. The survey also revealed that the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, or the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 which usually signals a recession ahead.
    • This comes after the Federal Reserve last week revised its growth outlook downward amid the uncertainty over the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Moreover, reports that US reciprocal tariffs scheduled to be imposed on April 2 would be more targeted help ease inflation concerns and should allow the US central bank to keep cutting rates, benefiting the non-yielding Gold price. 
    • In fact, the Fed had signaled that it would deliver two 25 basis points interest rate cuts by the end of this year. The markets, however, are pricing in the possibility that the US central bank would lower borrowing costs in June, July, and October policy meetings. This overshadows hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Kugler, saying that she supports holding interest rates steady for some time.
    • Meanwhile, Trump imposed a secondary tariff on Venezuela and said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela would face a 25% tariff when trading with the US. Furthermore, Trump is expected to announce so-called retaliatory tariffs – that would offset levies on US goods and are set to take effect on April 2 – on about 15 major US trading partners, keeping investors on the edge.
    • Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement to halt military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure following negotiations mediated by the US. Apart from this, the latest optimism over China’s stimulus aimed at boosting consumption remains supportive of a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This is holding back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.
    • Traders now look forward to Wednesday’s release of US Durable Goods Orders, which, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, should provide some impetus to the USD and the commodity. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which could provide cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path and drive the precious metal. 

    Gold price could appreciate further while above the $3,000 psychological mark pivotal support

    From a technical perspective, bullish resilience near the $3,000 mark and the subsequent move up, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the $3,036 area, will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the XAU/USD pair towards the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 zone touched last week. 

    On the flip side, the $3,000 mark should continue to protect the immediate downside for the Gold price and act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $2,982-2,978 region. The corrective fall could extend further toward the next relevant support near the $2,956-2,954 resistance breakpoint.

    Risk sentiment FAQs

    In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

    Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

    The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

     



    Source link

  • Gold ends week higher despite Powell’s pushback, trade uncertainty lingers

    Gold retains its positive bias above $3,000 mark; lacks bullish conviction


    • Gold price edges higher and snaps a three-day losing streak amid a softer USD. 
    • Bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon also support the bullion.
    • Traders now look to Tuesday’s US macro data and Fed speak for a fresh impetus.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) sticks to modest intraday gains through the early European session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its recent bounce from a multi-month low and consolidates near a three-week high touched on Monday amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, along with worries about a tariff-driven US economic slowdown, lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

    Meanwhile, hopes for less disruptive US trade tariffs, along with the optimism over the Russia-Ukraine peace deal and China’s stimulus, remain supportive of a generally positive risk tone. This might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven Gold price and cap any further gains. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the upside. Hence, any corrective slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited. 
     

    Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is underpinned by Fed rate cut bets and subdued USD demand

    • The global risk sentiment remains well supported by hopes that US President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will be narrower and less strict than initially feared. 
    • Russian state media RIA reported that a joint statement from the US and Russia is expected on Tuesday after day-long talks in Saudi Arabia focused on a narrow proposal for a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal.
    • According to a Financial Times report, China is considering including services in a subsidy program to stimulate consumption, further boosting investors’ confidence and undermining the safe-haven Gold price. 
    • The US Dollar retreats from a nearly three-week high touched on Monday in reaction to the better-than-expected release of US Composite PMI, which rose to 53.5 in March from the 51.6 previous month. 
    • The Federal Reserve last week lowered its 2025 growth forecast and hiked its inflation outlook amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, though signaled that it is likely to deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025.
    • Meanwhile, concerns about US economic growth saw traders lift bets that the Fed could resume its policy-easing cycle soon, which caps further USD gains and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal. 
    • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he anticipates slower progress on inflation in coming months and sees the central bank cut the benchmark rate only a quarter of a percentage point in 2025.
    • Traders now look to Tuesday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index – for some impetus. 
    • Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members could drive the USD demand and produce short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair later during the North American session. 
    • The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which could provide fresh cues about the Fed’s future rate-cut path. 

    Gold price might continue to find decent support near the $3,000 psychological mark pivotal support

    From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been showing some resilience near the $3,000 mark. The said handle is likely to act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,982-2,978 region. The corrective fall could extend further towards the $2,956-2,954 resistance breakpoint, now turned support. 

    On the flip side, the $3,033 area, or the overnight swing high, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the all-time peak, around the $3,057-3,058 zone touched last week. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and set the stage for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend.

    BRANDED CONTENT

    Not all brokers provide the same benefits for Gold trading, making it essential to compare key features. Knowing each broker’s strengths will help you find the ideal fit for your trading strategy. Explore our detailed guide on the best Gold brokers.



    Source link