“Takaichi trade” remained the dominant theme in markets today. Nikkei added nearly 1.5% on the day, pushing to yet another record high as Japanese driven by expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government will pursue expansionary fiscal policies and pro-growth reforms after the speculated snap election. Yen selloff extended earlier in the session, but momentum […]
Dollar gyrates in a tight range and remains an underperformer for the week, showing little reaction to December US consumer inflation data. With no meaningful downside surprise in the data, inflation figures effectively cemented expectations for a policy hold by the Fed at its upcoming meeting. Futures now assign around 95% probability that interest rates
Yen came under renewed and intense pressure during Asian session, as domestic equities surged more than 3% to new record highs following the market reopening. The catalyst behind the equity rally — and Yen’s decline — remains growing conviction that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to call a snap general election in February.
The first full week of 2026 delivered a barrage of geopolitical shocks that would normally be expected to rattle global markets. Instead, investors largely looked through the noise, producing a market outcome that appears counterintuitive at first glance. The most dramatic development came from Latin America, where the US carried out a direct military intervention
Dollar is trading broadly higher in Asian session today, and remains the strongest performer of the week, as markets head into the December US non-farm payrolls report. Within FX, USD/JPY stands out as a pair to watch, with the pair edging closer to levels that would confirm an upside break. This week’s price action suggests
Risk sentiment turned decisively positive overnight and carried through the Asian session as traders looked past Venezuela-related geopolitical risks. The shift marked a clear return to risk-on positioning, and prompted a broad reversal in the Dollar, which broke lower after firming earlier on Monday. With haven demand fading, the greenback slipped to the bottom of
Forex markets are trading in mixed fashion, with hesitant tone, as investors continue to digest the controversial US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. While geopolitical risk has clearly entered the equation, price action suggests the response is far from a textbook risk-off move. There are visible safe-haven bids flowing into Dollar
Currency markets remain largely frozen, with holiday conditions draining liquidity and suppressing volatility. Also, the macro calendar offers no immediate catalyst, leaving markets with little to trade beyond positioning adjustments. As a result, price action across majors and crosses shows little urgency, with most traders waiting for January to re-engage. Focus now shifts to minutes
Currency markets have entered deep holiday mode, with trading exceptionally subdued despite sharp swings elsewhere, notably in precious metals. In FX, volume and volatility have both contracted sharply. With liquidity thin and risk appetite selective, traders are choosing patience over positioning, especially with little fresh macro information to work with. December minutes from the Fed
Risk sentiment softened as markets reopened after the holiday break, with investors adopting a more defensive posture. Asian equities drifted lower, and European markets struggled to gain traction at the open, reflecting subdued conviction. One immediate dampener came from the Summary of Opinions released by the BoJ. The document reinforced that hawkish voices within the
Yen rebounded broadly today, but the move appears driven more by pre-holiday profit-taking than a genuine shift in trend. Position squaring into year-end has offered temporary relief after recent weakness, yet price action lacks the conviction typically associated with durable reversals. There was also some support from stepped-up verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Authorities delivered
Global markets opened the final full trading week of 2025 on a mixed footing, with price action shaped more by thin holiday liquidity than fresh conviction. Asian equities leaned modestly higher, led by a strong surge in Japanese stocks after Friday’s firm close in the U.S., where technology shares again drove gains. Elsewhere in the
The past week delivered no shortage of surprises, yet markets ended it with remarkably little conviction. Key macro data and central bank decisions challenged prevailing assumptions, but follow-through across major assets proved elusive. US economic releases hinted at a faster cooling in both employment and inflation. Under normal circumstances, that combination would have fueled enthusiasm
Yen selling remains the dominant theme heading into the weekend, with the currency staying as the weakest performer. The renewed slide comes despite the BOJ lifting interest rates to their highest level since 1999. The problem for Yen bulls is not the direction of policy, but the pace. BoJ normalization is widely expected to remain
Yen rallied broadly during the Asian session as weaker-than-expected Chinese data undermined regional risk sentiment. Retail sales disappointed sharply, reinforcing doubts about the strength of China’s domestic recovery and prompting a defensive tilt across FX markets. Hopes that poor data would trigger fresh stimulus from Beijing failed to gain traction. Instead, markets appear increasingly focused
Dollar ended last week broadly lower, outperforming only the even more beleaguered Yen. That said, the technical deterioration in Dollar is still measured rather than decisive. For now, Dollar’s selling momentum reflects hesitation more than capitulation. Two key forces are shaping this fragile balance. The first is indecisive risk sentiment, which remains unsettled rather than
Currency market dynamics have not shifted meaningfully as the session progresses, with the day’s relative performance table largely intact. Aussie remains firmly at the top, supported by the RBA’s hawkish hold earlier today. Governor Michele Bullock effectively shut the door on further easing and made clear that the next move could be a hike if
