Tag: RetailSales

  • Loonie strengthens for third day as core inflation rises, US Dollar stumbles

    Loonie strengthens for third day as core inflation rises, US Dollar stumbles


    • The Canadian Dollar extends gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday, with USD/CAD falling below 1.3900.
    • BoC rate cut expectations fade as underlying inflation remains sticky.
    • The US Dollar remains under pressure,  DXY slips to a fresh weekly low.

    The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, marking a three-day rally, with USD/CAD slipping below 1.3900 as markets digest stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation figures and a broadly subdued Greenback.

    The market reacted to the data released on Tuesday with renewed uncertainty as Canada’s inflation report showed an unexpected rise in core prices despite a steep drop in the headline figure. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.7% YoY in April, down from 2.9% in March.  On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in April from 0.3% in March, well below market expectations. In contrast, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred measure, BoC core CPI, accelerated to 2.5% YoY, from 2.2%, and monthly CPI rose to 0.5% MoM from 0.1% in March.

    The fall in headline inflation was partly driven by weaker energy prices, which fell 12.7% YoY in April as the recent removal of the federal carbon tax intensified the impact of falling oil prices driven by OPEC’s decision to hike output.

    The latest inflation data paints a complex picture for the BoC ahead of its June rate decision. The BoC held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% during its April policy meeting. Some economists now lean toward another pause in cuts.

    While the headline inflation figure eased, the rise in core measures indicates underlying price pressure picked up in April.

    “It is going to make it a much more challenging backdrop for the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates, at least in the near term,” said Benjamin Reitzes, Managing Director of Canadian Rates and Macro Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

    On top of that, the impact of US trade tariffs is adding to the uncertainty, potentially keeping inflation higher for longer and making it harder for the central bank to move ahead with its easing plans.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, briefly slipped below the 100.00 mark to a fresh weekly low, down over 1.2% this week. The Greenback remains under pressure amid a broader weakness in the US economy after Moody’s cut the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 on May 16 and a cautious economic outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due on Thursday and Canada’s upcoming Retail Sales data on Friday. At the same time, shifts in US economic policy and ongoing global trade developments will continue to play a key role in shaping the direction of the USD/CAD pair.



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  • Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.2 % MoM in February vs. 0.3% expected

    Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.2 % MoM in February vs. 0.3% expected


    Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a rise of 0.3% in January, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday.

    The reading came in below the market expectations of 0.3%. 

    Market reaction to Australia’s Retail Sales data

    At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is down 0.10% on the day at 0.6241.

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

     



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  • Dow Jones surges higher on Monday

    Dow Jones surges higher on Monday


    • The Dow Jones rallied 600 points on Monday as the index extends its rebound.
    • Equities are recovering their stance after a recent plunge on geopolitical concerns.
    • US Retail Sales figures from February recovered, but not by much.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 600 points on Monday as equities continue to claw back ground after a recent downturn that saw major indexes inch toward correction territory. US economic data continues to hint at a possible slowdown looming ahead, but oversold equity markets are shrugging off the warning signs falling too far, too quickly over the last few weeks.

    US Retail Sales rebounded to a tepid 0.2% MoM in February after January’s plunge. Markets were hoping for a better showing from key retail activity results, with a median forecast of 0.7%. Data watchers will note that January’s figure was also revised to a two-year low of -1.2%, and downside revisions will continue to plague the economic calendar as US data continues to worsen on the front end of the curve.

    Despite a near-term rebound in equity markets, key indexes remain steeply lower in March, sparked by overarching tariff threats from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump has played fast and loose with his constantly changing tariff threats, introducing a new level of policy friction that markets have yet to become accustomed to. Despite President Trump flat-out refusing to acknowledge a growing risk of recession at the hands of his trade policies, key comments from people within his administration have tipped their hands that Trump’s team expect some “economic pain”. However, the Trump administration’s attempt to rebrand economic contraction as “resetting US markets” seems to have gone over rather poorly with investors.

    Dow Jones news

    The Dow Jones has extended into a second day of recovery gains, with the majority of the major equity index rising on Monday. UnitedHealth (UNH), Walmart (WM), and IBM (IBM) have all risen over 2% on the day. UNH rose back to $500 per share, Walmart climbed back over $85 per share, and IBM has reclaimed $250 per share. On the low end, Nvidia fell back 2.5%, dipping back below $120 per share as the tech rally continues to face difficulties.

    Dow Jones price forecast

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average is seeking a technical recovery following a rapid rebalancing of investor expectations: the Dow Jones has climbed 600 points on Monday, adding further momentum to last Friday’s 550-point gain. However, the key index remains steeply off of recent highs, declining over 3,300 points top-to-bottom over the last two weeks. 

    Bidding pressure is pushing the Dow Jones back toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 42,000 handle. The DJIA found a technical floor at the 41,000 key price level, but buyers remain at the low end of a particularly steep hole as the Dow trades 3,300 points below record highs set last November just north of 45,000.

    Dow Jones daily chart

    Economic Indicator

    Retail Sales (MoM)

    The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Last release: Mon Mar 17, 2025 12:30

    Frequency: Monthly

    Actual: 0.2%

    Consensus: 0.7%

    Previous: -0.9%

    Source: US Census Bureau

     



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  • German Retail Sales climb 2.5% YoY in November vs. 1.9% expected


    Germany’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% MoM in November after declining 1.5% in October, the official data released by Destatis showed on Wednesday.

    Annually, Retail Sales in the Eurozone’s top economy rose by 2.5% in November versus 1.9% expected and 1.0% in October.

    EUR/USD reaction to the German data

    Mixed German data serves negative for the Euro, driving EUR/USD slightly lower at around 1.0345, flat on the day, as of writing.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.00% -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    EUR -0.00%   -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    GBP 0.03% 0.03%   0.10% -0.04% 0.05% 0.02% 0.07%
    JPY -0.05% -0.05% -0.10%   -0.12% -0.04% -0.07% -0.02%
    CAD 0.07% 0.07% 0.04% 0.12%   0.08% 0.06% 0.09%
    AUD -0.02% -0.02% -0.05% 0.04% -0.08%   -0.02% 0.01%
    NZD 0.01% 0.00% -0.02% 0.07% -0.06% 0.02%   0.04%
    CHF -0.03% -0.03% -0.07% 0.02% -0.09% -0.01% -0.04%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

     



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