Political turmoil rattles Turkish lira carry trade – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content Echoes of March crackdown that sparked market rout leave traders on alert Fears of further political turmoil in Turkey have sparked nervous reactions from foreign investors who had piled back into the lira carry trade after […]
Confidence in a continued gold price rally has enticed hedge funds back into hybrid options trades, after erroneous bets on US equities led to a pause in activity. Hybrid options, which use correlation between two or more assets to cheapen the cost of convex bets, have become a hedge fund staple for trading macro events.
Entering 2025, the prevailing macro theme throughout the investment community was that the US dollar would continue its dominant path. Years of US exceptionalism – driven by a booming equity market and a resilient labour market – had cemented the dollar as a must-have hedging tool in most portfolios. For example, if there was a
It’s 2025 and you attend another foreign exchange industry conference where, unsurprisingly, the hot topics remain familiar: data-driven FX, streaming swaps, workflow automation, the ‘electronification’ of liquidity, debates on what AI means for our jobs, algo evaluation, and fully automated trade workflows. You return to the office, only to have a conversation with a bank
Within ING’s foreign exchange business, a special algorithm has the job of looking out for signals that might indicate an abrupt, unexpected shift in the market, and adjusting the bank’s prices accordingly. On July 16, that algo had to earn its corn: reports spread that US president Donald Trump was planning to fire the chair
The investors who aren’t fretting over Trump’s stat sulk – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content Some see dismissal of statistics agency chief as an assault on US institutional integrity; for others it offers a chance to throw off outdated methods When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down
As developed countries continue to rack up deficits, the big question looming over markets is, who will buy the growing pile of sovereign debt? Hossein Zaimi, global head of macro at Barclays, doesn’t have the answer, but he is pretty sure the prevailing view in financial and government circles is wrong. “The sustainability of the
Hedge funds are reloading their short dollar bets – with a few new twists – ahead of US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated keynote speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference on Friday, August 22. Garth Appelt, head of derivatives, FX and emerging markets macro trading at Mizuho Americas, says
One question we’ve been discussing on the reporting desk lately is the difference between US president Donald Trump’s impact on the foreign exchange markets in his current term compared with his first. Take yourself back eight years and there are some parallels. For example, Trump’s frequent, unpredictable tweets about US trade policy with China in
It’s a known but unproven assumption that predatory trading during the 4pm London time fixing window for benchmark currency rates – mostly from high-speed hedge funds and prop desks – can lead to worse prices for clients. What’s less clear is what to do about it. A new paper, jointly authored by Deutsche Bank’s Roel Oomen
HSBC, Goldman prevail in shake-up of FX Markets’ Dealer Rankings – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content The pair thrived serving US retail funds, while Morgan Stanley retained title with life insurer clients The third edition of FX Markets’ annual exercise in identifying the top dealers in foreign exchange derivatives
Macro hedge funds like Rokos Capital Management and Bridgewater may have profited from foreign exchange volatility during the second quarter, but for options dealers the market has become increasingly precarious. Since US president Donald Trump’s explosive tariff policy announcement in April, positioning has been firmly geared towards US dollar weakening across G10 currencies. A July
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It’s a maxim on many traders’ minds as they try to gauge the authenticity – or otherwise – of US president Donald Trump’s pronouncements. When news broke on July 16 that Trump had drafted a letter to remove Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the
Hedge funds that bet the yen would materially weaken following last weekend’s Japanese election were left disappointed after prime minister Shigeru Ishiba announced he would stay on, despite his ruling coalition party losing control of the country’s upper house. Going into the election, investors had turned bearish on the yen, holding roughly $1.1 billion in
US mutual funds and exchange-traded funds went into April’s tariff turmoil holding the highest net long US dollar position in recent years. According to FX Markets’ Counterparty Radar data, mutual funds’ net long USD notional position, via foreign exchange forwards, stood at $455.7 billion by the end of the first quarter, the highest long USD position
Investors hope US rate cuts will lower FX hedging costs – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content European investors in US assets set to boost hedge ratios as implied yields rise As the US dollar has continued its fall after April’s tariff turmoil, foreign investors in US assets have had
Jive Investments quicksteps towards hedged returns – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content Brazilian fund manager uses combo of options and forwards to push down hedging costs compared with plain NDF strategy The currency volatility that followed the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 led to some tricky conversations for Brazilian private
