In an interview with Breitbart News Network on Friday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “we don’t get a recursive Biden-flation,” per Reuters.
Further comments
We’re very vigilant about inflation, it could happen again.
Before we can bring down inflation, we also want to help affordability.
As we bring down inflation, we want to bring the absolute price level down through deregulation and bringing down interest rates for house payments and car payments.
Market reaction
At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.14% higher on the day to near 104.00.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer announced late Thursday that he plans to vote to keep the government open as the chamber prepares to take up a GOP stopgap bill continuing government funding Friday.
Key quotes
I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harm to the American people.
Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open, and not shut it down.
While the Republican bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much much worse. For sure, the Republican bill is a terrible option.
It is not a clean CR” or continuing resolution.
It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address far too many of this country’s needs, but I believe allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power in a government shutdown is a far worse option.
Trump has taken a blowtorch to our country and wielded chaos like a weapon.
For Donald Trump, a shutdown would be a gift. It would be the best distraction he could ask for from his awful agenda.
Market reaction
At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.03% on the day at 103.81.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Finally, the Greenback managed to regain some composure and clocked acceptable gains following multi-month lows. The broader scenario, however, remained clouded by intense tariff uncertainty as well as fears of a US recession.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 13:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) set aside part of the multi-day deep sell-off, retesting the 103.80 zone amid rising yields. Producer Prices will be in the spotlight seconded by the usual Initial Jobless Claims.
EUR/USD met some resistance and receded to the sub-1.0900 region in response to the mild bounce in the US Dollar. Industrial Production in the euro area will be published along with speeches by the ECB’s De Guindos, Nagel and Villeroy.
GBP/USD pushed harder and came just pips away from the key 1.3000 threshold, just to give away some impulse afterwards. The RICS House Price Balance will be the sole release across the Channel.
USD/JPY added to Tuesday’s uptick, climbing to multi-day highs and briefly surpassing the 149.00 barrier. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due.
Despite tariff concerns and the uptick in the US Dollar, AUD/USD rose further north of the 0.6300 hurdle, hitting two-day peaks at the same time. The final Building Permits and Private House Approvals are expected, followed by the speech by the RBA’s Jones.
Prices of WTI rose to three-day highs near the $68.00 mark per barrel despite the ounce in the US Dollar and persistent trade war concerns.
Gold prices advanced to two-week tops around $2,940 per troy ounce following tariff jitters and the lower-than-expected US CPI print. Silver prices rose past the $33.00 mark per ounce, coming just short of the yearly peak.
The US Dollar trades broadly in the red on Tuesday, devaluing further against most major peers.
The German Green coalition is said to be back on track for a defense spending bill.
The US Dollar Index heads to the lower range of 103.00 and could break below it.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is eking out lows not seen since October 2024. The index trades above 103.50 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The Greenback faces headwinds on early European comments from the German green coalition, who said to be back on track for an agreement on a German defense spending bill. This pushes the US Dollar (USD) lower in favor of the Euro (EUR).
On the economic data front, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for January will catch most of the attention. Traders are already spooked by recession fears, so a further decline in job openings could add to that conviction and see further downside momentum for the DXY. The US NFIB Business Optimism Index for February already released fell to 100.7, missing the 101 estimate and further down from the previous 102.8 reading.
Daily digest market movers: Some dots to connect
In the early European trading session, a headline was published that the German Green coalition leader said to be hopeful on a defense spending deal this week, Bloomberg reported. This news represents a 180-degree shift from the headline that triggered some US Dollar (USD) strength on Monday, where the Green Party was unwilling to support any defense spending deal.
At 14:00, the US JOLTS Job Openings report for January will be published. Expectations are for an uptick to 7.75 million openings against the 7.6 million from December.
Equities are trying to brush off the doom and gloom from Monday. European equities are higher while US futures are in positive territory.
The CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 95.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on March 19. However, the chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting increase to 47.8% and to 89.9% at June’s meeting.
The US 10-year yield trades around 4.20%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on Tuesday last week.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not a one-day event
The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces more selling pressure on Tuesday as recession fears are not going away. Traders remain concerned about tariffs’ impact and uncertainty on the US economy. Seeing the performance in US equities year-to-date, there is not much reason to be happy and no reason to support a stronger Dollar in the current narrative.
There is an upside risk at 104.00 for a firm rejection. If bulls can avoid that, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.03. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps.
On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off again, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index depreciates as market expectations grow for more aggressive Fed rate cuts amid US growth concerns.
President Trump exempted Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA from his proposed 25% tariffs.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls is projected to show job growth, with employment rising to 160K in February.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, continues its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, pressured by declining US Treasury yields. Market expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts amid concerns over US economic growth are contributing to the weakness. The DXY is trading around 103.90 with 2- and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.94% and 4.24%, respectively, during the early European hours on Friday.
Traders are closely watching global trade developments, particularly Canada’s decision to delay its second round of retaliatory tariffs on US products until April 2. This move follows US President Donald Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA from his proposed 25% tariffs.
On the labor market front, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 1 fell to 221K, down from 242K the previous week, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL). The figure came in below market expectations of 235K. Meanwhile, the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is projected to show a modest rebound, with job additions expected to rise to 160K in February, up from 143K in January.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic commented on Thursday that the US economy remains in a state of flux, making it difficult to predict future developments. Bostic reiterated the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down to 2% while minimizing labor market disruptions. He also stressed the importance of business sentiment in shaping monetary policy decisions.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.31%
-0.10%
-0.12%
0.04%
0.46%
0.35%
-0.25%
EUR
0.31%
0.20%
0.21%
0.35%
0.78%
0.67%
0.06%
GBP
0.10%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.14%
0.57%
0.46%
-0.11%
JPY
0.12%
-0.21%
0.00%
0.17%
0.60%
0.49%
-0.08%
CAD
-0.04%
-0.35%
-0.14%
-0.17%
0.42%
0.32%
-0.25%
AUD
-0.46%
-0.78%
-0.57%
-0.60%
-0.42%
-0.10%
-0.66%
NZD
-0.35%
-0.67%
-0.46%
-0.49%
-0.32%
0.10%
-0.56%
CHF
0.25%
-0.06%
0.11%
0.08%
0.25%
0.66%
0.56%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
United States (US) President Donald Trump will address Congress from the US Capitol at around 02:00 GMT Wednesday, marking his first appearance before lawmakers since retaking the White House. He’s expected to outline his vision for a wide range of domestic and foreign policy initiatives.
In his second term, President Trump has wasted no time getting started. He’s signed a series of executive orders in just a few weeks and he promises even more are on the way. During his inaugural speech, he declared that “the golden age of America” had arrived, identifying immigration, trade and national security as top priorities.
On the international front, the President recently held a turbulent Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Following that meeting, he announced a pause on military aid to Ukraine.
Turning to trade, another round of tariffs went into effect on March 4. Tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled to 20%, while imports from Canada and Mexico now face a 25% tariff (with a lower 10% rate for Canadian energy). President Trump also revealed plans to impose tariffs on “external” agricultural products starting April 2, along with automobile tariffs and country-by-country reciprocal tariffs set to begin the same day.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
The US Dollar kicked off the new trading week slightly on the defensive, managing to rebound from fresh multi-week lows amid tariff concerns, lower yields, and renewed jitters on the health of the US economy.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 25:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to new two-month lows, trading at shouting distance from the key support at the 106.00 mark. The Consumer Confidence gauged by the Conference Bord will take centre stage seconded by the FHFA’s House Price Index, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. In addition, the Fed’s Logan, Barr and Barkin are due to speak.
EUR/USD briefly surpassed the 1.0500 barrier on fresh optimism following the results of the German election on Sunday. The final Q4 GDP Growth Rate in Germany will be at the centre of the debate, along with the ECB’s Negotiated Wage Growth and the speech by the ECB’s Nagel.
GBP/USD resumed its uptrend on Monday, rising to new highs in levels closer to the 1.2700 hurdle. The CBI Distributive Trades will be the only data release across the Channel, seconded by the speech by the BoE’s Pill.
After three daily pullbacks in a row, USD/JPY finally regained the smile and charted decent gains to the proximity of the key 150.00 barrier. Next on tap on the Japanese calendar will be the final prints of the December Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index.
AUD/USD treaded water around 0.6350 following an unsuccessful attempt to hit the 0.6400 level earlier in the day. The RBA’s Jones will speak on Tuesday, while the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator, and Construction Done figures, are expected on February 26.
Once again, supply concerns lent some much-needed oxygen to crude oil prices, prompting the barrel of American WTI to clock acceptable gains above the $70.00 mark.
Prices of Gold advanced to a record high closer to $2,960 per ounce troy on the back of intense uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Silver prices added to Friday’s pullback, reaching multi-day lows near the £2.00 mark per ounce.
The US Dollar steadies after an earlier wild ride as a flood of geopolitical news erupts this Monday.
In Germany, the far-right AfD party is outpaced by the CDU.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered a near 0.50% loss andd trades marginally higher at the time of writing.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has completely recovered Asian losses in the US trading session this Monday. The initial move down in the US Dollar came in, due to euphoria for the Euro (EUR) after the first German election results showed a firm lead for the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), which will take the lead in forming a coalition. As the dust settles, this means that fundamentally, no big changes will take place in Germany regarding leadership and political agenda, which triggers the Euro to pare back gains and the DXY to turn flat to positive.
Meanwhile US headlines have been added where several US departments such as the Pentagon have asked employees not to go ahead with the request from Elon Musk and DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to disclose their duties. Elon Musk meanwhile issued warnings on Twitter that those who fail to comply coming into the office or reporting back to DOGE, will be put on leave.
In an ongoing G7 meeting, the group is unable to agree on a joint statement to mark the three year since Russia invaded Ukraine, due to disagreements between the US and its European allies. The US opposed language condemning Moscow and a call for more energy sanctions, and has threatened to pull support for a statement altogether, although discussions are ongoing.
The US economic calendar starts off the week slowly, with all eyes on the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for January on Friday. However, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January is due this Monday. Later in the day, United States (US) President Donald Trump is also due to deliver a speech.
Daily digest market movers: Not impressed
The Euro (EUR) has given up all its gains against the US Dollar (USD) as traders are not impressed with the possible lack of major reforms or changes in the German political landscape for the new government formation.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January came in at -0.03, a small loss compared to the previous 0.15 reading.
The US Treasury will auction a 3-month, 6-month Bills, and a 2-year Note auction this Monday.
US President Donald Trump is set to hold a press conference with President of France Macron near 19:00 GMT.
Equities are having a sigh of relief after the German election outcome, though the German Dax is fading its intraday gains at the start of the US trading session. The broader pan-European Stoxx 50 index is even turning negative after the US opening bell.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 41.2% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June against a bigger 46.2% for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut.
The US 10-year yield trades around 4.43%, down over 3% from last week’s high at 4.574%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: It is bound to move
The US Dollar Index (DXY) portrays a textbook element here, with the German election outcome as a catalyst. During the Asian session, a sigh of relief and support for the Euro was outpacing the Greenback in the idea that a crisis was averted with the Far-Right not having enough seats to secure the lead in Germany. However, now that the dust settles, markets start to realise that the current coalition probability is dull and the same politics markets saw in the past few decades is due, which is seen as not enough to trigger substantial additional upside in Euro.
On the upside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could limit bulls buying the Greenback near 106.61. From there, the next leg could go up to 107.35, a pivotal support from December 2024 and January 2025. In case US President Trump has some surprise comments on Monday, even 107.96 (55-day SMA) could be tested.
On the downside, the 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high) level has seen a false break for now. However, that does mean quite a few stops might have been triggered in the markets, with a few bulls having been washed out of their long US Dollar positions. Another leg lower might be needed to entice those Dollar bulls to reenter at lower levels, near 105.89 or even 105.33.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
The US Dollar dives lower in the US Retail Sales aftermath and is set to close out the week at a loss.
Almost a full -1 % slide in headline Retail Sales for January spells domestic issues for President Trump.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops substantially below 107.00 and is on its way to 106.50.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is devaluing substantially towards 106.50 at the time of writing, amounting to over 1.5% loss on the week since Monday. United States (US) President Donald Trump might be facing his first domestic challenge next to the egg-crisis, with now even US Retail Sales starting to turn over big time. With a whopping -0.9% decline in January headline sales and a surprise decline in Sales excluding cars and transportation by -0.4%, it becomes clear that the US consumer is clearling keeping his money aside for a rainy day.
The economic calendar will start to shift as of now to next week> Investors will focus on the S&P Global Purchase Managers Index (PMI) preliminary data for February due on Friday 21. Meanwhile the weekend could get interesting in case President Donald Trump releases more headlines or actions on tariffs, Ukraine or other topics.
Here are the most important data releases for this Friday:
January Import/Export came out, with the monthly Export Price Index rising to 1.3%, beating the 0.3% expected, while the Import Price Index fcame in at 0.3%, missing the estimate from 0.4% compared to resived 0.2% in December.
January Retail Sales shrank by 0.9% compared to the expected 0.1% contraction, a wide decline from the revised up 0.7% growth in December. Retail Sales without Cars and Transportation contracted by 0.4%, a big disappointment from the expected 0.3% growth and the revised 0.7% in the previous month.
Equities are taking a turn for the worse and are all sliding in red numbers across the board with both European and US indices in red numbers just before the US opening bell.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 57.4% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June. This suggests that the Fed would keep rates unchanged for longer to fight against persistent inflation.
The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.47%, a nosedive move over just two days time from this week’s high of 4.657%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Next leg lower
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is done for this week. A clear weekly loss is unavoidable, and the strong resistance at 107.35 is far away. From here, the DXY is technically handed over to the mercy of the moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is still bearing plenty of room for more downturn. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trading around 104.93, might be the one to look out for.
On the upside, that previous support at 107.35 has now turned into a firm resistance. Further up, the 55-day SMA at 107.90 must be regained before reclaiming 108.00.
On the downside, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high), 106.34 (100-day SMA), or even 105.89 (resistance in June 2024) as better support levels. Even though the RSI shows room for more downside, the 200-day SMA at 104.93 could be a possible outcome.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
BRICS FAQs
The BRICS is the acronym denoting the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The name was created by Goldman Sachs’ economist Jim O’Neill in 2001, years before the alliance between these countries was formally established, to refer to a group of developing economies that were predicted back then to lead the global economy by 2050. The bloc is seen as a counterweight to the G7, the group of developed economies formed by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The BRICS is a bloc which intends to give voice to the so-called “Global South”. The alliance tends to have similar views on geopolitical and diplomatic issues, but still lacks a clear economic integration as the governing systems and cultural divergence between its members is significant. Still, it holds yearly summits at the highest level, coordinates multilateral policies and has implemented initiatives such as the creation of a joint development bank. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined the group in January 2024.
The five founding members of the BRICS alliance account for 32% of the global economy measured at purchasing power parity as of April 2023, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. This compares with the 30% of the G7 group.
There has been increasing speculation about the BRICS alliance creating a currency backed by some sort of commodity like Gold. The proposal is meant to reduce the use of the dominant US Dollar in cross-border economic exchanges. In the BRICS’ 2023 summit, the group stressed the importance of encouraging the use of local currencies in international trade and financial transactions between the members of the bloc as well as their trading partners. The group also tasked finance ministers and central bank governors “to consider the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms” for this purpose. Even if the bloc’s de-dollarization strategy looks clear, the creation and implementation of a new currency seems to have a long way to go.
When asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said ‘we’ll see’.
Trump commented on this at an event to welcome home a hostage released by Russian President Vladimir Putin late Tuesday.
Market reaction
Markets remain on tenterhooks on Trump’s tariffs uncertainty, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) finding fresh demand above 108.00 so far this Wednesday.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
The US Dollar flat for a second day in a row this week.
All eyes shift towards Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heading to Capitol Hill.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is not ging anywhere and is residing above 108.00 wh.ile looking for direction
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, resides above 108.00 and is looking for a catalyst to move either way. The Greenback looks to be immune to US President Donald Trump’s tariff talks. While China silently slapped some minor tariffs on US goods in a tit-for-tat move on Monday, Trump introduced a 15% levy on steel and aluminum for all countries importing that will come into effect on March 12.
The economic calendar this Tuesday is being taken over by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Besides Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifying before Congress, three Fed speakers are due to make an appearance. Traders will want to hear if the central bank has plans for any changes in its monetary policy soon. Meanwhile head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk, has mentioned the Fed is the next sucject for audit.
Daily digest market movers: DOGE to look at Fed
Elon Musk on Sunday said that the Fed could face scrutiny as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) continues to audit federal agencies and spending. Musk wrote on X in response to a user’s post about the billionaire’s support for an audit of the Fed that the central bank isn’t above scrutiny from DOGE, Reuters reports.
At 11:00 GMT, The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has released its Business Optimism Index for January. The number came in at 102.8, below the 104.6 estimate and down from 105.1 in the December reading.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will keep his semiannual testimony before Congress at 15:00 GMT.
More Fed speakers are lined out to speak throughout the day:
At 13:50 GMT, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Beth Hammack will talk at the 2025 Economic Outlook Conference at the Central Bank Center.
At 20:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Iowa Bankers Association Bank Management and Policy Conference in Des Moines.
At 20:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams also delivers keynote remarks at the CBIA Economic Summit and Outlook 2025, organized by the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) in Connecticut.
Equities are struggling this Tuesday with the tariff hangover starting to weigh on them. All major European and US indices are in the red, though less than 0.6%.
The CME FedWatch tool projects a 93.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on March 19.
The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.53%, ticking up further for a second day in a row and recovering further from its fresh yearly low of 4.40% printed last week.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Things could get really messy
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is really turning into a snooze fest this week. No real movement in the Greenback as of yet, despite plenty of headlines. Though US yields are the asset to monitor, with Powell’s testimony ahead, things might start to move from now.
On the upside, the first barrier at 109.30 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline) was briefly surpassed but did not hold last week. Once that level is reclaimed, the next level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high).
On the downside, 107.35 (October 3, 2023, high) is still acting as strong support after several tests last week. In case more downside occurs, look for 106.52 (April 16, 2024, high), 106.14 (100-day Simple Moving Average), or even 105.89 (resistance in June 2024) as better support levels.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
According to the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index, American consumers are beginning to grow increasingly concerned about United States (US) President Donald Trump’s approach to economic policy and international trade. Trade war fears have knocked back consumer confidence, and consumer inflation expectations have also climbed.
The Preliminary UoM Sentiment Index showed that aggregate consumer outlook contracted in January, falling to 67.8 compared to investors’ median forecasts of a climb to 71.8 from December’s 71.1. It’s the lowest reading in the UoM’s main sentiment index since July of last year, and the average US consumer may not be in as great shape or feeling as confident as Wall Street might have originally thought.
UoM Consumer Inflation Expectations also rose across the board, climbing to 3.3% over the next 5 years and jumping to 4.3% over the next 12 months as multiple rounds of tariff threats take hold of the economy at the consumer level.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that he is happy to keep the Fed Funds on hold at the current level, adding that he will wait to see the net effect of Trump policies.
Key quotes
Waits to see net effect of Trump policies.
Examining overall impact of Trump administration on policy goals needed.
Opts to maintain current interest rates for the time being.
Content with current policy level until totality of impacts better understood.
Sees Fed’s ability to be patient with the economy in a good place.
Fed’s rate still restrictive even with 100 bp drop.
Policy rate remains restrictive for the economy.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading unchanged on the day at 107.60, as of writing.
USD/CAD falls sharply below 1.4300 as the Canadian Dollar continues to advance on US President Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on Canada.
BofA expects US tariff threats to China will continue to persist until a new USMCA deal gets negotiated.
Investors await the US ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment data for December.
The USD/CAD pair extends its losing streak below the key level of 1.4300 in Wednesday’s European session. The Loonie pair weakens as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to gain, given that United States (US) President Donald Trump delayed his orders to impose 25% tariffs on Canada for 30 days. President Trump suspended orders after Canada agreed for criminal enforcement at borders to stop the flow of drugs and undocumented immigrants into the US.
A suspension in tariff orders on Canada has forced market experts to revise the Canadian economic outlook, who were accounting for the impact of levies. While the Canadian Dollar has surged this week against the US Dollar due to a relief rally from Trump’s decision to put the tariff plan on hold, analysts at Bank of America (BofA) expect the rally is unlikely to sustain as US tariffs threats and headlines on Canada to persist until a “new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal is negotiated”.
This week, investors will focus on the Canadian employment data for January, which will be released on Friday. The employment report is expected to show that the economy added 25K workers, significantly fewer than 90.9K addition seen in December. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 6.8% from the former release of 6.7%.
The labor market data will influence market expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook. Currently, traders expect the BoC to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% in the March meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its major peers as the market sentiment turns cheerful amid expectations that Trump’s tariff agenda would be less fearful than expected.
On the economic front, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for January, which will be published in Wednesday’s North American session.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
