The USD is softer heading into Friday trade, with the greenback slipping to fresh session lows as North American desks come in. Risk sentiment is getting a modest boost from headlines that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan this weekend, helping lift equities after yesterday’s dip.
On the corporate side, Intel is the standout. Shares are sharply higher after a blowout earnings report, continuing a remarkable turnaround for what was not long ago viewed as a laggard in the chip space. Revenue came in at $13.6B (well above expectations), while EPS printed at $0.29 vs $0.01 expected, sending the stock up roughly 20% to $82.
That move also shines a spotlight on last August’s policy decision, when the U.S. government converted $8.9B in unspent CHIPS Act funding into a ~9.9% equity stake, acquiring 433.3 million shares at $20.47. At today’s price, that position is now worth approximately $35.5B, translating to a ~$26.6B gain (+299%) in under a year. Even when factoring in total exposure of about $11.1B, the return is still roughly +220%. The stake remains unrealized, with no indication yet on timing for any potential exit.
The estimated current total direct cost estimates stands at approximately $35 billion, or roughly $236 per U.S. taxpayer and equal to the value of the Intel stock (assuming they continue to hold the full position).
In broader markets, stocks are rebounding:
- Dow: -25 points
- S&P 500: +31 points (after -29 yesterday)
- Nasdaq: +361 points (after -219 yesterday)
In FX, the dollar is correcting lower after a stronger week:
- EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD: All seeing USD weakness after prior gains
Rates are slightly lower but still elevated:
- 2-year yield: -0.5 bps
- 10-year yield: -1.0 bps (holding above 4.30%)
Meanwhile, crude oil is down about 1%, easing slightly after recent volatility.
In the video above, I break down the technicals for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, focusing on the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and targets as the dollar pulls back.