If indeed a longer-term bullish reversal were to be seen, the area between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and February to June 2025 highs at 122.27p – 125.75p may be reached.
Good support is seen in the 100p region with it acting as bullish launching pad in December 2022, June to July 2023, April, July and December 2025. Failure there may lead to the November 2025 low at 96.54p being revisited, and perhaps also the 92.32p September 2025 trough.
Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey’s Q4 outlook
Taken together, the Q4 trading messages from Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are expected to illustrate similar themes across the two large UK housebuilders: improving sales rates and forward sales growth and a strategic focus on product mix and regional diversification.
Both companies are expected to highlight the role of sales incentives and affordability-support measures, including part-exchange, in underpinning private demand amid ongoing affordability pressures, while forward sales remain a key focus, with order books improving but still below the levels seen at the peak of the previous housing cycle.
Against the prospect of one or two 25 basis point Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in 2026, Persimmon’s strong exposure to first-time buyers and affordable housing, together with Taylor Wimpey’s disciplined pricing and incentives-led approach, leaves both groups relatively well positioned to capture the more resilient pockets of demand as affordability conditions gradually improve.
The government’s approach to housing policy – including proposals to address planning delays and stimulate supply in strategic regions – remains an overarching factor for the sector’s outlook.
Measures aimed at boosting infrastructure-linked housing development and easing planning bottlenecks could, if implemented, underpin future confidence among both developers and buyers.
But in the short term, affordability constraints tied to BoE base-rate expectations and high street mortgage pricing is expected to continue to drive reservation growth.
Looking ahead, the sector’s ability to navigate ongoing affordability pressures, align build programmes with confirmed demand, and take advantage of any policy-led improvements in planning and infrastructure will be critical.
Taken together, the Q4 trading messages from Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are expected to illustrate similar themes across the two large UK housebuilders: improving sales rates and forward sales growth and a strategic focus on product mix and regional diversification.
Investment considerations
- Research market positioning and strategies.
- Consider affordability trends.
- Open an account on the IG website.
- Access housing stocks through the platform.
- Implement risk management.
Share dealing, spread betting and CFD trading offer approaches for trading.