- New orders +3.5 vs +22.7 prior
- Shipments +8.6 vs +18.9 prior
- Prices paid +61.0 vs +62.6 prior
- Prices received +31.4 vs +31.8 prior
- Employment +9.6 vs +8.3 prior
- Supply availability -13.9 vs -10.7 prior (lowest since June 2022)
- Six-month outlook +30.1 vs +33.5 prior
The headline gave back fourteen points after May’s surprise pop. Activity is still expanding — 29% of firms saw conditions improve versus 23% who saw deterioration. New orders barely held positive in a sharp drop and shipments retreated. They’re still positive, so demand isn’t collapsing but that’s a disappointing reversal.
I’m not sure prices matter as much if the Iran peace holds but. Prices paid are basically pinned at 61.0 and prices received held at 31.4, which is a squeeze that won’t quit. There are more signs of pass-through as the future selling-price index jumped to its highest since 2022. Manufacturers that they intend to push tariff and war costs through to customers over the next six months.
Supply availability fell to its worst since June 2022 — supply chains tightening again. Employment expanded for a fifth straight month. So: weaker headline, firmer labor, worsening supply, and rising forward pricing power. N
Empire Fed
For backround, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly read on factory activity in New York State, run by the New York Fed since 2001. Each month it polls executives at roughly 200 manufacturers across the district, asking whether conditions improved, held steady, or worsened versus the prior month. Responses get converted into diffusion indexes — the share reporting gains minus the share reporting declines — so zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. The headline general business conditions index lands mid-month, making it the first regional Fed manufacturing gauge of the cycle and an early tell for the national ISM print.