US stocks rise amid tariff ruling and mixed economic data
United States (US) stocks finished higher on Friday, led by the tech sector in a session that featured the Supreme Court striking down President Trump’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs and a less-than-ideal mix of economic data: slower growth paired with firmer inflation. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.13% (snapping a three-week losing streak), the S&P 500 rose 1.07%, and the Dow Jones added 230 points (0.47%).
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump’s use of the IEEPA to impose sweeping tariffs was unlawful. This decision invalidates the broad ‘reciprocal’ and drug-related tariffs imposed last year, potentially opening the door for thousands of companies and importers to seek refunds on billions in duties already paid, though the Court left specific refund decisions to lower courts.
The administration has since implemented a temporary 15% universal tariff under Section 122, limited to 150 days without congressional extension. Overall, we think this outcome was largely expected, meaning investor sentiment on tariffs and risk sentiment are unlikely to shift dramatically. This view appears to be playing out this Monday morning, with US S&P 500 futures falling a relatively modest 0.50% at the time of writing.
Economic data recap and future outlook
Recapping Friday night’s economic data, the advanced reading of fourth-quarter (Q4) 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) slumped to 1.4%, down from 4.4% in the prior quarter, well below expectations of approximately 3.0%, heavily impacted by the government shutdown. Meanwhile, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge, firmed to 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 2.8% prior.
Looking ahead, the US earnings season enters the home straight this week with results expected from companies including Home Depot, HP, Zoom Video Communications, Salesforce, Snowflake, Dell Technologies, CoreWeave, Intuit, Zscaler, and the much-anticipated NVIDIA.
Aside from earnings, the key point of interest will be the Central Bank (CB) consumer confidence index for February.
CB consumer confidence
Date: Wednesday, 25 February
Last month, January’s consumer confidence took a sharp hit, falling by 9.7 points to 84.5 from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December – the lowest level since May 2014 (82.2), below the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic period.
Looking ahead to February, the market anticipates a modest rebound in confidence to 87.3. This optimism stems from recent evidence of labour market stabilisation, with jobless claims showing resilience and unemployment figures remaining steady. However, for a sustained improvement in consumer sentiment, clear signs of easing inflation and greater economic certainty will be crucial.