Developments in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to roil markets. News from the region and oil price movements are currently the main drivers of market trends.
In the upcoming week of May 4-10, 2026, market participants will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from Switzerland, the US, New Zealand, China, Australia, the Eurozone, and Canada, as well as the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting.
Investors will turn their attention to the release of the US Department of Labor’s April jobs report, due on Friday.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, Switzerland’s CPI figures, the US ISM Services PMI, and New Zealand’s employment report.
- Wednesday: China’s services PMI data and the US ADP report.
- Thursday: Australia’s trade balance and Eurozone retail sales.
- Friday: Canada’s and the US labor market reports.
- Key event of the week: The US Department of Labor’s April report.
Monday, May 4
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, May 5
Banks and stock exchanges in Japan will be closed due to the national holiday, Children’s Day. Thus, trading volumes during the Asian trading session will be lower than usual.
04:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
At its February 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 0.25%, the first increase since December 2025. In March, the rate was raised again to 4.10%. The Australian dollar strengthened after these decisions, although the hikes were largely expected by the market. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said after the meeting that inflation remains too high and will take more time to return to target levels. She also stressed that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data. Overall, the risk of rates staying high or rising further remains, supporting the Australian dollar.
Prior to and after the decision, RBA officials did not rule out the possibility of further policy tightening if new signs of consumer inflation emerged.
The RBA may raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, given the sharp rise in energy prices, particularly oil, resulting from the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, causing inflation to accelerate.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia. Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In March 2026, consumer inflation rose by +0.2% (+0.3% YoY) after +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025, -0.2% (0% YoY) in November, -0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in October, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in September, 0% (+0.2% YoY) in August, -0.1% (+0.2% YoY) in July, +0.2% (+0.1% YoY), +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in May, 0% in April, +0.6% (+0.3% YoY) in February, -0.1% (+0.4% YoY) in January 2025, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in December, -0.1% (+0.7% YoY) in November, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in October, -0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in September, 0% (+1.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+1.3% YoY) in July, 0% (+1.3% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in April, 0% (+1.2% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% YoY) January 2024, +1.7% in December 2023, +1.4% in November, and +1.7% YoY in October.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
22:45 – NZD: New Zealand Employment Change. Unemployment Rate for Q1
The employment change reflects the quarterly change in the number of employed New Zealand citizens. An increase in an indicator value positively affects consumer spending, thereby stimulating economic growth. A high indicator reading is favorable for the New Zealand dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values: +0.5% in Q4 2025, 0.0% in Q3 2025, -0.1% in Q2 2025, +0.1% in Q1 2025, -0.2% in Q4 2024, -0.6% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, -0.4% in Q1 2024.
At the same time, Stats NZ publishes a report on the unemployment rate, an indicator that measures the proportion of unemployed individuals relative to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator values signals a weakening labor market, leading to a slowdown in the national economy. Conversely, a decrease is viewed positively, often strengthening the value of the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: 5.4% in Q4 2025, 5.3% in Q3 2025, 5.2% in Q2 2025, 5.1% in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, 4.9% in Q3, 4.7% in Q2, 4.4% in Q1 2024.
If other indicators in the Stats NZ report show signs of decline, the New Zealand dollar will likely weaken. Worse-than-expected data could have an even more pronounced negative effect on the currency.
Wednesday, May 6
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in April after +62k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
Thursday, May 7
01:30 – AUD: Australia’s Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio of exports to imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 5.686 in February, 2.258 in January, 3.373 in December, 2.597 in November, 4.353 in October, 3.707 in September, 1.111 in August, 6.612 in July, 5.366 in June, 1.604 in May, 4.859 in April, 6.892 in March, 2.921 in February, 5.156 in January 2025, 4.924 in December, 6.792 in November, 5.670 in October, 4.5362 in September, 5.284 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures: -0.2% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+1.8%YoY) in December 2025, 0% (+2.6% YoY), +0.4% (+2.1% YoY), +0.3% (+1.4% YoY), -0.1% (+1.8%YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.5% (+3.8% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3%YoY) +0.5% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3% YoY) in January 2025.
Friday, May 8
12:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s April labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In March, unemployment stood at 6.7% against 6.7% in February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Private Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
The most significant US labor market indicators for April.
Previous figures: +0.2% in March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.3% in December 2025, +0.1%, +0.4%, +0.2% in September, +0.4% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.2% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March and February, +0.5% in January 2025, +0.3% in December 2024, +0.4% in November, October, September, and August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / 178,000 in March, -133,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, 48,000 in December 2025, 41,000 in November, -140,000 in October, 76,000 in September, -70,000 in August, 64,000 in July, -20,000 in June, 13,000 in May, 108,000 in April, 67,000 in March, 42,000 in February, -48,000 in January 2025, 237,000 in December 2024 / 4.3% in March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025, 4.5%, 4.4% in September, 4.3% in August and July, 4.1% in June, 4.3% in May, 4.2% in April, March, and February, 4.0% in January 2025, 4.1% in December 2024, 4.2% in November, 4.1% in October and September, 4.2% in August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 3.9% in May, April, and March, 3.9% in February, and 3.7% in January 2024.
Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies, with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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