The month opened on a weak note for the US dollar. Most traders are now convinced the Fed will cut rates at its December 9–10 meeting. This expectation is one of the key factors driving precious metals to record highs, while the US dollar index has once again slipped below the psychological level of 100.00.
In the upcoming week of December 8–14, 2025, market participants will focus on the release of crucial macroeconomic data from China, the US, Australia, and Germany. Additionally, markets will wait for the outcomes of the Australian, Canadian, Swiss, and US central bank meetings.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled.
- Tuesday: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, and preliminary Eurozone CPI data.
- Wednesday: Chinese CPI readings, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, the US Fed’s interest rate decision.
- Thursday: Employment in Australia, the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision, and US PPI figures.
- Friday: Germany’s final CPI estimate.
- Key event of the week: The Fed’s interest rate decision.
Monday, December 8
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, December 9
03:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
At the February meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the interest rate by 0.25% for the first time since October 2020. Back then, rates were on the rise, eventually reaching 4.35% in November 2023. According to the accompanying statement, the Governing Council was cautious about the prospect of further policy easing. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock emphasized in her statement that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and future decisions will be driven by economic data. Thus, the risks of keeping interest rates high or even raising them remain, bolstering the Australian dollar.
Previously, Governor Michele Bullock stated, “Inflation is still above our target, and it’s proving to be sticky.” Besides, she mentioned that inflation is “above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range.”
Additionally, RBA officials had previously hinted at the possibility of implementing new tightening measures in response to any signs of increasing consumer inflation.
It is hard to predict their decision this time. Nevertheless, the central bank may raise the interest rate again at this meeting.
For now, it is widely expected that RBA policymakers will take a pause, keeping the interest rate at 3.60%.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
04:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
Wednesday, December 10
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter fiscal policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In October 2025, the consumer inflation index value stood at +0.2% (+0.2% YoY), after +0.1% (-0.3% YoY), 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
14:45 – CAD: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Accompanying Statement
At its 2022 and 2023 meetings, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate and advocated for further increases. Since its September 2023 meeting, Canadian policymakers have held the interest rate at 5.00%, assuming that uncertainty caused by high geopolitical tensions around the world and slowing Chinese, American, and European economies will be accompanied by lower demand for oil. As oil is Canada’s primary export commodity, this situation may weaken its economic growth while grappling with high inflation.
However, at the June 5, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75%, making a total reduction of 1.75% (175 bp) in 2024. In October 2025, the rate was further slashed to the current 2.25%.
The central bank’s upcoming decision remains uncertain. The regulator may also take a pause at Wednesday’s meeting.
If the Bank of Canada’s accompanying statement regarding growing inflation and the prospects for further monetary policy signals further tightening, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. Conversely, if the regulator signals the need for a monetary policy easing, the Canadian currency will decline.
19:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy. FOMC Economic Projections
During the first half of 2024, the US Fed policymakers left monetary policy parameters unchanged at multiple meetings, maintaining the key interest rate at 5.50%. However, at the September, November, and December meetings, the US Fed’s leaders reduced the interest rate to 4.50%.
On September 17, 2025, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, marking its first reduction since December 2024. Notably, a month before these decisions, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank’s focus was shifting toward ensuring stability in the labor market. However, Powell emphasized that any decisions regarding interest rates would still hinge on the prevailing economic conditions.
Market participants now expect the US central bank to continue its cycle of monetary policy easing. However, a pause or even an interest rate hike remains possible if inflation starts to rise again, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly warned.
For now, it is widely anticipated that the interest rate will be trimmed by 0.25% to 3.75% at the upcoming meeting.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Powell’s commentaries may affect short-term and long-term trading in the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors are eagerly awaiting Powell’s remarks on the Fed’s upcoming plans.
The Fed’s forecasts for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth over the next 1–2 years and beyond will draw significant attention. Equally important will be the individual FOMC members’ views on interest rates.
19:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. The resolution is read in the first part of the meeting, followed by a Q&A session, which may increase market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Jerome Powell on the Fed’s monetary policy will cause a hike in volatility in the US dollar and the US stock market.
Thursday, December 11
00:30 – AUD: Employment Rate. Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed Australian citizens. The increase in the indicator value positively impacts consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. A high reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous indicator values: +42,200 in October, +12,800 in September, -11,800 in August, +26,500 in July, +1,000 in June, -1,100 in May, +87,600 in April, +25,500 in March, -54,200 in February, +34,900 in January 2025, +60,000 in December 2024.
Besides, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on the unemployment rate. It is an indicator that estimates the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of working-age citizens. The rise in the indicator readings demonstrates the weakening of the labor market, negatively impacting the national economy. A decrease in the indicator is positive for the Australian dollar.
Forecast: Australian unemployment has remained at its lowest levels and stood at 4.3% in November (against 4.3% in October, 4.5% in September, 4.3% in August, 4.2% in July, 4.3% in June, 4.1% in May, April, March, February, and January 2025, 4.0% in December 2024, 3.9% in November, 4.1% in October, September, and August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.8% in April, 3.7% in March and February, 4.1% in January, 3.9% in December and November, 3.8% in October, 3.6% in September, 3.7% in August and July, 3.5% in June, 3.6% in May, 3.7% in April, 3.5% in March and February, 3.7% in January, 3.5% in December, 3.4% in November and October, 3.5% in September and August, 3.4% in July, 3.5% in June, 3.9% in May and April, 4.0% in March and February, 4.2% in January), while the employment rate has increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly stated that the Australian economy and the central bank’s plans are influenced by key indicators like the level of household debt and spending, wage growth, and the state of the labor market, in addition to the international trade situation. If the indicator readings are lower than expected, the Australian dollar may decline significantly in the short term, while higher data will strengthen the currency.
08:30 – CHF: Swiss National Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. SNB Monetary Policy Statement
Recently, the Swiss franc has once again gained popularity as a safe-haven asset. However, the possibility of intervention is currently preventing the currency from experiencing significant growth. SNB executives emphasize that intervening in the foreign exchange market is crucial for maintaining the low investment appeal of the franc and alleviating upward pressure on the currency.
The deposit rate is widely anticipated to remain at 0.0% at the December 2025 meeting, following a series of 0.25% reductions at each of the last seven meetings since March 2024.
Besides, traders will scrutinize the SNB statement for signals regarding the further monetary policy plans. The hawkish tone of the statement will favor the Swiss franc. Conversely, the soft tone and inclination to resume the loose monetary policy will negatively affect the currency. If the SNB board makes unexpected statements, volatility in the currency market and the Swiss franc is expected to increase.
09:00 – CHF: Swiss National Bank Press Conference
The SNB press conference will commence after the release of the interest rate decision. During the press conference and the speech of SNB chairman Martin Schlegel, who succeeded Thomas Jordan at the end of September 2024, volatility in the Swiss franc will surge. Traders expect signals regarding further plans for the SNB’s monetary policy. The hawkish tone of Martin Schlegel’s speech will bolster the Swiss franc, while a softer tone and the SNB’s inclination towards a soft monetary policy will negatively affect the franc. Volatility in the currency market and in the value of the Swiss franc is expected to rise.
13:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous values: +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), +0.9% (+3.3% YoY), 0% (+2.3% YoY), +0.1% (+3.0% YoY), -0.5% (+2.4% YoY), -0.4% (+2.7% YoY), 0% (+3.2% YoY), +0,4% (+3,5% YoY) in January 2025,+0.2% (+3.3% YoY) in December, +0.4% (+3.0% YoY) in November, +0.2% (+2.4% YoY) in October, 0% (+1.8% YoY) in September, +0.2% (+1.7% YoY) in August, +0.1% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.2% (+2.6% YoY) in June, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in May, +0.5% (+2.2% YoY) in April, +0.2% (+1,6% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+1.6% YoY) in February, +0.3% (+0.9% YoY) in January 2024, 0% (+0.9% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), +0.5% (+2.2% YoY), +0.7% (+1.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (+0.2% YoY), -0.3% (+0,9% YoY), +0.2% (+2.3% YoY), -0.5% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+4.9% YoY), +0.7% (+5.7% YoY) in January 2023.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Friday, December 12
07:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate a slowdown in inflation in Germany, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the November reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
The preliminary estimate stood at +2.6%.
Sunday, December 14
23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q4 2025
The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.
The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.
Previous quarterly values: 14, 13, 12 in Q1 2025, 14 in Q4 2024, 13, 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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