As the US government and its statistical agencies resume operations, the flow of key macroeconomic data is accelerating. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US PCE index release, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While the possibility of another rate cut remains firm, expectations for a pause in monetary policy are gaining traction.
In the upcoming week of November 24–30, 2025, market participants will also focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from Australia, the US, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Canada, and China. Additionally, markets will wait for the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting.
Notably, Thursday, November 27, is a public holiday in the US for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be a shortened trading day. From this point, the US moves into the pre-Christmas period. As the New Year approaches, trading volumes typically decline and investors begin to take stock of the year.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled.
- Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Index.
- Wednesday: Australian CPI, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision, US GDP (second estimate), US PCE indexes, and New Zealand’s retail sales.
- Thursday: Thanksgiving Day in the US, Japanese Tokyo CPI.
- Friday: Black Friday, German retail sales, Swiss GDP, German CPIs, Canadian GDP.
- Sunday: Chinese PMIs.
- Key event of the week: US PCE indexes.
Monday, November 24
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Tuesday, November 25
15:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence Index
A Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
The increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while the decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, November 26
00:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous monthly values: +3.5% in September, +3.0% in August, +2.8% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, and any further moves will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. Markets currently estimate the probability of another rate cut at the next meeting at about 50%, and at 70% by December 2025.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
01:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease the monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to the current level of 2.50%.
Economists expect New Zealand’s borrowing costs to fall further amid a sustained slowdown in inflation and a volatile labor market.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
At this meeting, the RBNZ may either reduce the interest rate again, advocating for further monetary policy easing, or leave the rate at the current level. Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar’s performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Press Conference
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will comment on the rate decision. Typically, volatility in the New Zealand dollar increases during the meeting. Orr’s speeches often serve as an unofficial source of information about the future direction of the RBNZ’s monetary policy. He believes that the country’s monetary policy should be aligned with the country’s employment performance and financial stability, as well as inflation.
13:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q3 (Second Estimate). Core Personal Consumption Expenditures
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q2 2025, GDP posted +3.8%, after -0.5% in Q1, +2.4% in Q4 2024, +3.1% in Q3, +3.0% in Q2, +1.6% in Q1 2024, +3.2% in Q4 2023, +4.4%, +2.4% in Q2, +2.8% in Q1 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q3 2025, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YOY: +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.7% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.8% +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +3.1% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.
21:45 – NZD: Retail Sales in Q3
The retail sales data is published by Statistics New Zealand. Change in retail sales volume is usually considered an indicator of consumer spending. Strong retail sales are generally positive for the New Zealand dollar, while weak figures weigh on the currency. In Q2 2025, the retail sales volume indicator showed a gain of +0.5% after 0.8% in Q1 2025, +1.0% in Q4 2024, 0% in Q3, a decline of -1.2% in Q2 2024, an increase of +0.4% in Q1, a decline of -1.8% in Q4 2023, -0.8% in Q3, and -1.0% in Q1 2023. The decline in retail sales is bearish for the New Zealand dollar.
The New Zealand dollar may strengthen if data exceeds the forecast or previous values, while a weak report will adversely affect the currency.
Thursday, November 27
The US will be on holiday for Thanksgiving, with banks and stock exchanges across the country closed. On Black Friday, the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges will operate on a shortened schedule, closing at 18:00 (GMT). As a result, trading volumes during the US session are expected to be lower than usual.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +2,8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, November 28
07:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous values: +0.2% (+0.2% YoY), -0.2% (+1.8% YoY), -1.5% (+1.9% YoY), +1.0% (+4.9% YoY), -1.6% (+1.6% YoY), -1.1% (+2.3% YoY), -0.2% (+2.2% YoY), +0.8% (+4.9% YoY), +0.2% (+2.9% YoY), -1.6% (+1.8 YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+2.5% YoY), -1,5% (+1,0% YoY), +1.2% (+3.8% YoY), +1.6 (+2.1% YoY), -1.2% (-0.6% YoY), +2.6% (-1.9% YoY), -1.5% (+2.2% YoY), -0.3% (-.2% YoY) in January 2024.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
08:00 – CHF: Swiss GDP for Q3 2025
GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of a country’s economy, which measures its growth or decline rate. The GDP report represents the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced by Switzerland over a given period. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the Swiss franc, while a low result is considered negative.
Previous values: +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.5% (+2.0% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.2% (+1.5% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.4% (+2.0% YoY) in Q3, +0.7% (+1.8% YoY) in Q2, +0.5% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1, +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q4 2023, +0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in Q3, 0% (+0.5% YoY) in Q2, +0.3% (+0.6% YoY) in Q1 2023.
The data indicate that the Swiss economy is recovering, albeit still at a slow pace, which is a positive factor for the Swiss franc.
If the data prove to be lower than forecast, the Swiss franc may decline in the short term. However, the currency will not fall sharply, as it is in strong demand as a defensive asset. Better-than-forecast data may strengthen the franc in the short term.
13:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro. The ECB’s target consumer inflation rate is just below 2.0%, and data indicate a continuing decline in inflation in the Eurozone.
According to the accompanying statement following the ECB’s October meeting, when its leaders decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the regulator stated that the disinflation process is underway.
And now, the ECB administration is signaling its intention to continue easing its monetary policy, which is a negative factor for the euro.
On the other hand, recent data show that core inflation in the Eurozone remains elevated, still above the ECB’s 2.0% target. This puts pressure on the central bank to maintain higher interest rates, which under normal economic conditions would support the euro.
13:30 – CAD: Canadian GDP. Canada’s Annual GDP Growth
The release of Canada’s GDP report by Statistics Canada. A positive report bolsters the Canadian dollar, while a weak GDP report negatively affects the currency.
Canada’s quarterly GDP report reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced by Canada during the quarter (YoY) and is considered an indicator of the overall Canadian economy. GDP posted -0.4% (-1.6% YoY) in Q2 2025, after +0.5% (+2.2% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.6% (+2.6% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.3% (+1.0% YoY), +0.5% (+2.1% YoY) in Q2, +0.4% (+1.7% YoY) in Q1 2024, +0.2% (+1.0% YoY) in Q4 2023, a decline of -0.3% (-1.1% YoY) in Q3, -0.2% in Q2, +2.6% growth in Q1 2023, zero growth in Q4, +2.9% growth in Q3 2022, +3.3% in Q2 2022, +3.1% in Q1 2022 (YoY).
If the Q3 2025 data is better than the previous and/or forecasted value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen.
Sunday, November 30
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the services sector PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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