Trump continues to unsettle markets with both his bold statements and actions, prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, European politicians are debating his intention to buy Greenland. The recent detention and extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to the US, along with other events, including those in Iran, have faded into the background.
On the economic front, the Fed is scheduled to hold a meeting next week and announce its interest rate decision.
Additionally, during the upcoming week of January 26, 2026–February 1, 2026, market participants will focus on the publication of crucial macroeconomic statistics from Australia, the US, Japan, China, the Eurozone, and Germany, along with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled
- Tuesday: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
- Wednesday: Australian CPIs, Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, Fed’s interest rate decision
- Thursday: Japanese CPI
- Friday: German GDP, Eurozone GDP, German CPI, US PPI
- Saturday: Chinese PMI
- Key event of the week: US Fed interest rate decision
Monday, January 26
No major macroeconomic data releases are scheduled. However, markets will focus on the US durable goods and capital goods orders data due at 13:30 GMT, which could trigger short-term volatility in the US dollar.
Durable goods are tangible products with an expected lifespan of more than three years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, and aircraft. Capital goods are durable items used to produce other goods and services (excluding the defence and aviation sectors). These goods require significant investment to produce. This is a leading indicator representing the change in the total value of new orders received by producers.
An increase in orders for these goods indicates that manufacturers are ramping up production to meet the demand.
Positive data boost the US dollar, while negative figures adversely affect it. Any indicator deterioration compared to previous and/or forecasted values may also have a detrimental effect on the US dollar quotes, while data surpassing the forecast will positively influence the currency.
Previous values of the durable goods orders indicator: -2.2% in December 2025.
Previous values of the non-defense goods orders excluding aircraft indicator: +0.5% in December 2025.
The data release is expected to have a medium impact on the markets.
Tuesday, January 27
15:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
A Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 89,1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
The increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while the decrease will weaken it.
Wednesday, January 28
00:30 – AUD: Australian Consumer Price Index. Australia Trimmed Mean Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Inflation Index, published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous monthly values: +3.4% in November, +3.8% in October, +3.6% in September, +3.2% in August, +3.0% in July, +1.9% in June, +2.1% in May, +2.4% in April, March, and February, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.5% in December 2024, +2.3% in November, +2.1% in October and September, +2.7% in August 2024.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting, inflation risks have shifted to the upside. Some market participants are already pricing in a roughly 50-basis-point rate increase to 4.10% in 2026, which supports the Australian dollar in the medium term.
The expected positive CPI reading will likely strengthen the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.
The trimmed mean measure of core inflation in Australia is published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and reflects the retail price of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The trimmed mean takes into account the weighted average of the middle 70% of index components.
Previous index YoY values: +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +2.8%, +3.0%, +3.1% in April 2025.
The data suggest that inflationary pressures remain robust. If the indicator reading turns out to be worse than expected, the Australian dollar will likely weaken. Conversely, if the indicator value exceeds the forecast, it may positively impact the currency in the short term.
14:45 – CAD: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Accompanying Statement
At the June 5, 2024, meeting, the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75%, making a total reduction of 1.75% (175 bp). In October 2025, the rate was further slashed to the current 2.25%.
The central bank’s upcoming decision remains uncertain. The regulator may also take a pause at Wednesday’s meeting.
If the Bank of Canada’s accompanying statement regarding growing inflation and the prospects for further monetary policy signals further tightening, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. Conversely, if the regulator signals the need for a monetary policy easing, the Canadian currency will decline.
15:30 – CAD: Bank of Canada Press Conference
During the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will provide an overview of the bank’s position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of his speech is hawkish regarding the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. If Tiff Macklem is in favor of maintaining a soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. Anyway, the Canadian dollar is expected to be highly volatile during his speech.
19:00 – USD: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy. FOMC Economic Projections
During the first half of 2024, the US Fed policymakers left monetary policy parameters unchanged at multiple meetings, maintaining the key interest rate at 5.50%. However, at the September, November, and December meetings, the US Fed’s leaders reduced the interest rate to 4.50%.
On September 17, 2025, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, marking its first reduction since December 2024. Notably, a month before these decisions, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank’s focus was shifting toward ensuring stability in the labor market. However, Powell emphasized that any decisions regarding interest rates would still hinge on the prevailing economic conditions.
Market participants now expect the US central bank to continue its cycle of monetary policy easing. However, a pause or even an interest rate hike remains possible if inflation starts to rise again, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly warned.
For now, it is widely anticipated that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 3.75% at the upcoming meeting.
The financial market may experience higher volatility when the rate decision is announced, particularly in the US stock market and the US dollar, especially if the rate decision does not match the forecast or the Fed makes unexpected statements.
Powell’s commentaries may affect short-term and long-term trading in the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback. Investors are eagerly awaiting Powell’s remarks on the Fed’s upcoming plans.
19:30 – USD: US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Press Conference
The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference lasts approximately one hour. The resolution is read in the first part of the meeting, followed by a Q&A session, which may increase market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Jerome Powell on the Fed’s monetary policy will cause a hike in volatility in the US dollar and the US stock market.
Thursday, January 29
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy
Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous YoY values:
- Tokyo CPI : +2.0%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +2.3%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.5%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, January 30
09:00 – EUR: German GDP for Q4 (Preliminary Estimate)
The GDP data is one of the key data (along with labor market and inflation data) for a country’s central bank in terms of its monetary policy. A strong result boosts the euro, while a weak GDP report negatively affects the currency. In Q3 2025, GDP posted +0.3% after -0.3% (-0.2% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.4% (-0.2% YoY) in Q1 2025, after -0,2% (-0,4% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in Q3, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in Q2, +0.2% (-0.9% YoY) in Q1, -0.3% (-0.4% YoY) in Q4 2023, -0.1% (-0.8% YoY) in Q3 2023.
If the GDP decreases in Q4 2025, the euro will face pressure. Conversely, positive GDP data will support the currency.
10:00 – EUR: Eurozone GDP for Q4 (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall economic health. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is positive for the euro, while a low reading weakens the currency.
Recent Eurozone macroeconomic data have shown a gradual recovery in the growth rate of the European economy after a sharp decline in early 2020.
Previous values: +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+1.5% YoY) in Q2 2025, +0.6% (+1.5% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.2% (+1.2% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.4% (+0.9% YoY) in Q3, +0.2% (+0.6% YoY) in Q2, +0.3% (+0.4% YoY) in Q1 2024, 0% (+0.1% YoY) in Q4 2023, -0.1% (0% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+0.5% YoY) in Q2, -0.1% (+1.0% YoY) in Q1 2023, 0% (+1.9% YoY) in Q4 2022, +0.7% (+4,0% YoY) in Q3, +0.8% (+4.1% YoY) in Q4 2022, +0.7% (+4,6% YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+3.9% YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+14.3% YoY) in Q2, and -0.3% (-1.3% YoY) in Q1 2021.
If the data is below the forecast and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Conversely, readings exceeding the predicted values may strengthen the euro in the short term. However, the European economy is still far from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels.
13:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.0%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate a slowdown in inflation in Germany, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the November reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
13:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous values: +0.2% (+3.0% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.7% (+3.1% YoY), 0% (+2.4% YoY), +0.4% (+2.7% YoY), -0.2% (+2.4% YoY), -0.2% (+3.2% YoY), 0.1% (+3.4% YoY), +0.7% (+3.8% YoY) in January 2025.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Saturday, January 31
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the services sector PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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