During the trading week of June 29–July 5, 2026, market participants will focus on the release of key macroeconomic data from China, Germany, the Eurozone, the US, Australia, Japan, the UK, and Switzerland. Particular attention will be paid to the US June employment report, which will be released on Thursday, one day earlier than usual due to the Independence Day holiday. Notably, US stock exchanges and banks will be closed on Friday, July 3, which is likely to affect trading volumes and overall market activity.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: None scheduled.
- Tuesday: RBA June meeting minutes, China’s PMI data, German Retail Sales, UK GDP, German CPI, Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturers Index.
- Wednesday: China’s manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone’s HICP inflation data, the ADP employment report, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI.
- Thursday: Australia’s trade balance, Swiss CPI data, and US labor market data for June.
- Friday: China’s services PMI and a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
- Key event of the week: the release of US labor market data for June.
Monday, June 29
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled for release.
Tuesday, June 30
01:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
At the June meeting, the interest rate was left unchanged at 4.35%.
RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said uncertainty over the outlook for the economy and inflation remains elevated. Although conditions have improved, she warned that upside inflation risks remain and that further interest rate action cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, the Council believes it now has scope to pause and evaluate the developing consequences of the conflict in Iran and their effects on growth and inflation.
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values: 50.0, 50.3, 50.4, 49.0, 49.3 in January 2026, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.2, 49.0, 49.8, 49.4, 49.7, 49.5, 50.5, 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI assesses business conditions in China’s services and construction sectors. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.1, 49.4, 50.1, 49.5, 49.4 in January 2026, 50.2 in December 2025, 49.5, 50.1, 50.0, 50.3, 50.5, 50.3, 50.8, 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. The indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.
06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous figures: -0.3% (-0.3% YoY), -0.3% (-0.2% YoY) and -0.3% (+0.9% YoY), -1.1% (+1.0% YoY) in January 2026, +1.7% (+2.5% YoY) in December 2025.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
06:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q1 2026 (Final Estimate)
GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.
The final estimate for Q1 implies that UK GDP has risen again. Overall, this is a positive factor for the British pound.
Previous GDP figures: +0.2% in Q4 2025, +0.1% in Q3, +0.2% in Q2, +0.7% in Q1 2025, +0.3% in Q4 2024, +0.2% in Q3, +0.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 of 2024.
The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.6%.
12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values: +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the June reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
14:00 – USD: US Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board’s survey of nearly 3,000 US households evaluates current and future economic conditions and overall economic sentiment. Consumer confidence in the country’s economic development and stability is a key indicator of consumer spending and, consequently, economic performance. High confidence levels suggest economic growth, while low levels indicate stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 93.1, 92.8, 91.8, 91.2, 84.5, 89.1, 88.7, 94.6, 94.2, 97.4, 97.2, 93.0, 98.0, 86.0, 92.9, 98.3, 104.1 in January 2025, 104.7 in December 2024, 111.7, 108.7, 98.7, 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator values will bolster the US dollar exchange rate, while a decrease will weaken it.
23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q2 2026
The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.
The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.
Previous quarterly values: 17 in Q1 2026, 15 in Q4 2025, 14, 13, 12 in Q1 2025, 14 in Q4 2024, 13, 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.
Wednesday, July 1
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI
The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 51.8, 52.2, 52.1, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.9, 50.6, 51.2 in September 2025.
A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
09:00 – EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Core HICP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +3.2%, +3.0%, +2.6%, +1.9%, +1.7% in January 2026, +2.0% in December 2025.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to decline in the Eurozone.
The ECB is signaling that monetary policy is likely to be tightened amid accelerating inflation in the eurozone, which is a bullish factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.6%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.2% in January 2026, +2.3% in December 2025.
If the June 2026 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in June after 122k in May, +105k in April, +61k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
13:30 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not address monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be subdued.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 54.0, 52.7, 52.7, 52.4, 52.6 in January 2026, 47.9 in December 2025, 48.0, 48.8, 48.9, 48.9, 48.4, 49.0, 48.6, 48.8, 48.9, 50.0, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.2 in December 2024.
The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
Thursday, July 2
01:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade
The Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio of exports to imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 1.791 in April, -1.024 in March, 5.026 in February, 2.258 in January, 3.373 in December, 2.597 in November, 4.353 in October, 3.707 in September, 1.111 in August, 6.612 in July, 5.366 in June, 1.604 in May, 4.859 in April, 6.892 in March, 2.921 in February, 5.156 in January 2025, 4.924 in December, 6.792 in November, 5.670 in October, 4.5362 in September, 5.284 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
06:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In May 2026, consumer inflation posted +0.2% (+0.6% YoY), following +0.3% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+0.3% YoY), +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), and 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
Previous figures: +0.3% in May, +0.2% in April and March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.3% in December 2025, +0.1%, +0.4%, +0.2% in September, +0.4% in August, +0.3% in July, +0.2% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March and February, +0.5% in January 2025, +0.3% in December 2024, +0.4% in November, October, September, and August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / 172,000 in May, 179,000 in April, 214,000 in March, -156,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, -17,000 in December 2025, 41,000 in November, -140,000 in October, 76,000 in September, -70,000 in August, 64,000 in July, -20,000 in June, 13,000 in May, 108,000 in April, 67,000 in March, 42,000 in February, -48,000 in January 2025, 237,000 in December 2024 / 4.3% in May, April, and March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025, 4.5%, 4.4% in September, 4.3% in August and July, 4.1% in June, 4.3% in May, 4.2% in April, March, and February, 4.0% in January 2025, 4.1% in December 2024, 4.2% in November, 4.1% in October and September, 4.2% in August, 4.2% in July, 4.1% in June, 3.9% in May, April, and March, 3.9% in February, and 3.7% in January 2024.
Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies, with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
Friday, July 3
Due to the Independence Day holiday in the US, which has been moved from July 4 to July 3, banks and stock exchanges will be closed, resulting in lower-than-usual trading volumes.
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 54.4, 52.6, 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
15:00 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
Market participants are expecting Andrew Bailey to provide clarity on the Bank of England’s future policy. If Bailey does not address monetary policy issues, the market reaction to his remarks will be muted.
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