Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up next



From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently exhibiting a bearish consolidation following a sharp correction from its early-month highs near $5420/oz and last week’s highs at $5238/oz.

Gold is trading within a defined horizontal range (red box) between $5,050 and $5,200. A recent break below suggests increasing selling pressure, with price now testing the critical psychological level of $5,000.

However, given the overarching conditions, the break lower may prove short-lived. We saw a similar false breakout earlier this week,but to the upside.

It swiftly dropped back inside the box and has grinded sideways ever since,

A “Death Cross” is forming as the 50-SMA ($5,139) trends sharply toward the 100-SMA ($5,158). Price is currently pinned below both averages, confirming a bearish shift in short-term momentum.

The bias remains neutral-to-bearish while below $5,130. A decisive H4 close below the $5,000 support could trigger a deeper liquidation toward the $4,840 zone.

Conversely, buyers need a breakout above $5,200 to reclaim the bullish trend.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 13, 2026



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