OPEC + have for the best part of the last 4 years since the Covid pandemic stuck to the line of ‘price stability’. However since the election of US President Donald Trump who pledged lower Oil prices and urged American companies to drill even more, they appear to have pivoted strategies.
Looking in from the outside, the output hikes this year have been largely down to an attempt at gaining a greater market share as fears rose that Oil prices may fall. A few months ago, it would have been bold to predict that OPEC+ could increase oil production by 2.5 million barrels per day and still keep prices steady at around $70 a barrel.
The eight OPEC+ members met online on Sunday and agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. This adds to earlier increases of 548,000 bpd in August, 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July, and 138,000 bpd in April, which started the process of reversing their voluntary production cuts.
OPEC+ said these increases were justified by a strong global economy and low oil supplies. However, this claim is questionable, as demand in Asia, the largest oil-importing region, has been weak.
Asia’s oil imports dropped to 25.0 million bpd in July, down from 27.88 million bpd in June, marking the lowest monthly total since July last year, according to LSEG Oil Research.
China, the world’s biggest oil importer, has been buying more oil recently, but this is likely due to lower prices when the shipments for June and July were arranged.
Additionally, China has probably been building up its oil reserves quickly. While China doesn’t share inventory data, it had a surplus of 1.06 million bpd in the first half of 2025 after accounting for domestic production and imports versus refinery use.