XRP range trades in low volatility
Since the beginning of the year, XRP has faced heightened volatility, with a recent sharp sell-off underscoring how exposed the token remains to macroeconomic shifts, leveraged positioning and shifting investor confidence.
Although XRP’s longer-term narrative – centred on cross-border payments adoption and ongoing institutional interest – still anchors many holders, near-term price behaviour has been driven by short-term forces that have amplified downside risk.
Last week’s accelerated sell-off was triggered by a renewed risk-off rotation across cryptocurrencies, spurred softer risk appetite and renewed concerns around the timing of rate cuts. In this environment, XRP – known for its relatively high beta compared with stalwarts like Bitcoin – came under disproportionate pressure as traders reduced leveraged exposure and sought liquidity.
Leverage dynamics significantly magnified the decline. In the run-up to the downturn, derivatives data showed a rebuilt concentration of speculative long positions as participants positioned for continued momentum. When prices failed to extend higher and instead breached key technical support levels, stop-loss orders were hit and liquidations gathered pace. The forced unwinding of leveraged longs drove selling pressure beyond what spot orders alone would have produced, creating a feedback loop that pushed XRP sharply lower.
Institutional flows echoed this shift in sentiment. Early in 2026, activity in XRP-linked investment products alternated between inflows and outflows, suggesting tactical allocation rather than broad conviction. During the recent sell-off, the noticeable absence of strong institutional dip-buying – particularly from larger asset managers – left XRP exposed to sustained downward pressure. Unlike in some other markets where institutional capital has acted as a stabilising force, flows in and out of XRP structures were cautious, reinforcing volatility rather than dampening it.
Ecosystem-specific factors also played a role. Although discussions around regulatory clarity and exchange traded product (ETP) access have persisted, tangible progress has been incremental rather than transformative. Without clear, near-term catalysts for adoption or new product launches, traders have focused more heavily on macro indicators and short-term technical levels. This dynamic contributed to a lack of conviction at key price supports, making it easier for stop-loss cascades to deepen the sell-off.
Looking ahead, XRP’s trajectory will likely hinge on whether broader market sentiment stabilises and whether both institutional and retail confidence can rebuild without renewed liquidation pressure. Continued macro uncertainty – including debates over rate policy, risk appetite and liquidity – suggests that volatility could remain elevated.
For now, last week’s sharp sell-off serves as a reminder that even assets with strong structural narratives are vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment, leverage unwinds and tactical positioning when broader markets turn risk-averse.
The episode highlights that, in the absence of clear catalysts and in a high-beta environment, short-term dynamics can overwhelm even well-anchored longer-term narratives.
XRP bearish case:
While XRP remains below its 6 February high at $1.5406 on a daily chart closing basis, downside pressure should retain the upper hand with Monday’s $1.3724 low being eyed. Further down lies the $1.3495 early November 2021 high which may also be revisited.
XRP bullish case:
If XRP were to see a rise above the 6 February high at $1.5406, the $1.6000 region would be targeted and may push the early February high at $1.6778 to the fore.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bearish bias while below the 6 February high at $1.5406.
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 6 February high at $1.5406, targeting the $1.3724 – $1.3495 support zone.