Macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging
Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a macro-sensitive risk asset.
Persistent inflation pressures, elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policy have reduced investor appetite for speculative investments.
Geopolitical tensions and concerns over slowing global growth have also encouraged defensive positioning across financial markets, contributing to recent weakness in cryptocurrencies.
While equity markets have shown signs of stabilisation, helped by continued interest in artificial intelligence-related companies, digital assets remain heavily dependent on improvements in liquidity conditions and institutional risk appetite.
This may improve once an agreement has been signed between the US and Iran and the Straits of Hormuz re-open to global trade.
Bitcoin bullish case:
While Bitcoin remains above its early June low at $59,110.90, the recent gradual recovery may continue.
For this to be the case, the May-to-June downtrend line around $66,979.00 needs to be bettered on a daily chart closing basis.
If so, the 7 April low at $67,718.73 and the 1 April high at $69,237.75 may be reached, followed by the minor psychological $70,000 region.
Support may be spotted around the 7 June $64,387.53 high and at the 9 June $60,748.85 low ahead of the early June trough at $59,110.90.
Bitcoin bearish case:
Were the current June low at $59,110.90 to be slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, the September 2024 high and October 2024 trough at $66,524.45-to-$65,153.38 may be reached next. Failure there may lead to the October 2024 low at $58,890.48 being revisited as well.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 5 June low at $59,110.90, targeting the $70,000.00 region
Medium-term outlook: bearish with a short-term bullish bias while below the 2 June high at $71,336.70