Author: The Forex Feed

  • China’s GDP beats forecast, Aussie shrugs

    China’s GDP beats forecast, Aussie shrugs


    The Australian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6198, down 0.22% at the time of writing.

    Will strong China numbers boost the Aussie?

    There was good news out of China on Friday, highlighted by GDP which was stronger than expected. The economy expanded by 5.4% y/y in the fourth quarter, up from 4.6% in Q3 and above the market estimate of 5.0%. This was the strongest pace of growth since Q2 2023. Industrial production jumped 6.2% in December, up from 5.4% in November and above the forecast of 5.4%. Finally, retail sales climbed 3.7% in December, compared to 3.0% a month earlier and blowing past the forecast of 3.0%.

    The solid numbers out of China are a result of the government’s aggressive stimulus measures to kick-start the economy and no less important, boost business and consumer confidence. One strong month does not mean that China’s economic problems are over but the positive data is clearly a step in the right direction.

    China’s exports rose in December jumped 10.7% which was higher than expected. Much of the gain was due to manufacturers rushing to fill orders ahead of Donald Trump taking office next week. Trump has threatened to slap China with tariffs and demonstrated in his first presidential term that he was willing to engage in a nasty trade war with China.

    The improvement in China’s economy is good news for Australia, as China is its largest trading partner. China’s bumpy recovery since the Covid pandemic has led to lower demand for imports and Australia’s crucial export sector has felt the pinch. If China has turned the corner, it will be good news for Australian exporters and should provide a boost to the ailing Australian dollar, which has plunged 10.5% against the US dollar since October 1.

    AUD/USD Technical

    • 0.6217 is a weak line of resistance, followed by resistance at 0.6243
    • 0.6188 and 0.6162 are providing support

    Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.





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  • Bloomberg offers auto-RFQ chat feed – but banks want a bigger prize

    Bloomberg offers auto-RFQ chat feed – but banks want a bigger prize


    Every day, thousands of bilateral trades in cash and derivative instruments are arranged via Bloomberg instant messages on the tech firm’s ubiquitous terminals, with parties sending out requests for quotes (RFQs), haggling over prices, and exchanging market colour.

    However, the process is often cumbersome, requiring salespeople to manually cut and paste information between chat windows. This slows down pricing and results in patchy data capture.

    But moves by Bloomberg to offer automated RFQ

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  • Bank of America flags dollar longs as crowded, eyes global inflation concerns By Investing.com

    Bank of America flags dollar longs as crowded, eyes global inflation concerns By Investing.com



    Bank of America (BofA) analysts highlighted a shift in market sentiment, identifying long U.S. dollar positions as the most crowded trade, and now a significant headwind for the currency. This perspective aligns with BofA’s recent reports on the U.S. dollar, emphasizing the stark contrast between current market positions and historical trends.

    The analysts’ findings indicate a growing apprehension among market participants regarding global inflation, particularly with a re-acceleration anticipated by 2025. Euro Area inflation expectations are notably visible, underscoring the broader concerns about inflationary pressures.

    Additionally, while emerging market (EM) investors seem to have discounted the worst-case scenarios related to tariffs, the uptick in sentiment is perceived as tentative. The cautious stance of EM investors reflects the uncertainty and challenges in the global trade environment.

    BofA’s analysis suggests that the heavy positioning in favor of the U.S. dollar could be problematic. The report, dated January 14, 2025, points out that the extent of USD long positions is exceptional not only in a historical context but also when compared to the past year’s trends.

    Furthermore, the discrepancy between conviction and positioning is evident, as only a fifth of respondents consider long USD their highest conviction trade. This is despite 42% of those surveyed expecting the peak of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to exceed 5%, as revealed in a separate exhibit from the bank’s research.

    This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.





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  • USD/CHF: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 17.01.25 – 24.01.25

    USD/CHF: Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 17.01.25 – 24.01.25


    The article covers the following subjects:

    Major Takeaways

    • Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.9201 with a target of 0.8724 – 0.8386. A sell signal: the price holds below 0.9201. Stop Loss: above 0.9245, Take Profit: 0.8724 – 0.8386.
    • Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9201 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9340 – 0.9530. A buy signal: the level of 0.9201 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 0.9150, Take Profit: 0.9340 – 0.9530.

    Main Scenario

    Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.9201 with a target of 0.8724 – 0.8386.

    Alternative Scenario

    Breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9201 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9340 – 0.9530.

    Analysis

    A bearish fifth wave of larger degree 5 is developing on the weekly chart, with wave (5) of 5 forming as its part. On the daily chart, a correction is presumably complete as the second wave 2 of (5), with wave c of 2 formed as its part. Apparently, the third wave 3 of (5) started developing on the H4 time frame. If this assumption is correct, the USD/CHF pair will continue to fall to 0.8724 – 0.8386. The level of 0.9201 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9340 – 0.9530.




    This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

    Price chart of USDCHF in real time mode

    The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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  • What are the main events for today?

    What are the main events for today?


    The main event in the European session was the release of the UK Retail Sales data which missed expectations across the board by a big margin. The GBP is currently under pressure as a result. We will also have the Eurozone CPI report but it’s the final reading, so it’s unlikely to be market moving.

    In the American session, we get some growth related data with the US Housing Starts and Building Permits and the US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. They aren’t market moving releases in general unless there are big deviations from the expected numbers.

    Central bank speakers:

    • 09:30 GMT – ECB’s Escriva (dove – non voter in Jan)

    This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.



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  • Australian Dollar holds gains as China GDP rises in previous quarter

    Australian Dollar holds gains as China GDP rises in previous quarter


    • The Australian Dollar appreciates after the release of economic figures from China.
    • China’s GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q4 of 2024 after reporting a 4.6% expansion in Q3.
    • US Retail Sales increased by 0.4% MoM in December, against the expected 0.6% growth.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) following the economic data from China released on Friday. China’s economy grew 5.4% over the year in the fourth quarter of 2024 after reporting a 4.6% expansion in the third quarter. Data beat the market consensus of 5% in the reported period, by a wide margin.

    Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, having increased 0.9% in the previous quarter. This figure matched the expectations of 1.6%. The annual December Retail Sales increased by 3.7% vs. the 3.5% expected and 3.0% prior, while Industrial Production arrived at 6.2% vs. the 5.4% forecast and November’s 5.4%.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shared its outlook on the economy during a press conference on Friday. The NBS highlighted that economic operations continue to face significant difficulties and challenges. It noted that the impact of changes in the external environment is intensifying, while domestic demand remains insufficient.

    Australia’s seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0% in December, compared to 3.9% in November, aligning with market expectations. Employment increased by 56.3K in December, up from 28.2K in November (revised from 35.6K) and significantly exceeding the market forecast of 15.0K.

    Bjorn Jarvis, head of labor statistics at the ABS, highlighted key data points: “The employment-to-population ratio rose 0.1% percentage points to a new record of 64.5%. This was 0.5 percentage points higher than a year ago and 2.3 percentage points above pre-COVID-19 levels. The increase in both employment and unemployment led to a further rise in the participation rate, which reflects the proportion of the population either employed or actively seeking work.”

    Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar remains subdued amid weaker US Retail Sales data

    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, trades near 109.00. The Greenback edges lower after the weaker US Retail Sales data.
    • US Retail Sales rose by 0.4% MoM in December, reaching $729.2 billion. This reading was weaker than the market expectations of a 0.6% rise and lower than the previous reading of a 0.8% increase (revised from 0.7%).
    • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated on Thursday that he has grown increasingly confident over the past several months that the job market is stabilizing at a level resembling full employment, rather than deteriorating into something worse, according to Reuters.
    • The US Consumer Price Index increased by 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from 2.7% in November, aligning with market expectations. Monthly, CPI rose 0.4%, following a 0.3% increase in the previous month.
    • US Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2% annually in December, slightly below November’s figure and analysts’ forecasts of 3.3%. Monthly, core CPI edged up 0.2% in December 2024.
    • US Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2% MoM in December after an unrevised 0.4% advance in November, softer than the 0.3% expected. The PPI climbed 3.3% YoY in December, the most since February 2023, after increasing 3.0% in November. This reading came in below the consensus of 3.4%.
    • On Wednesday, Scott Bessent, Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, emphasized the importance of maintaining the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency for the nation’s economic stability and future prosperity. Bessent stated “Productive investment that grows the economy must be prioritized over wasteful spending that drives inflation,” per Bloomberg.
    • The Federal Reserve reported in its latest Beige Book survey, released on Wednesday, that economic activity saw slight to moderate growth across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending increased moderately, driven by strong holiday sales that surpassed expectations. However, manufacturing activity experienced a slight decline overall, as some manufacturers stockpiled inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs.

    Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains above 0.6200 support near 14-day EMA

    The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6220 on Friday, attempting to break above the descending channel on the daily chart. A successful breakout would weaken the prevailing bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also trends upward toward the 50 level, signaling potential recovery momentum.

    The AUD/USD pair encounters immediate resistance at the upper boundary of the descending channel, approximately at 0.6220.

    On the downside, initial support is seen at the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6213, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.6206. A more substantial support level is located near the lower boundary of the descending channel, around the 0.5920 mark.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Australian Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.05% -0.05% 0.12% 0.01% -0.03% -0.07% -0.04%
    EUR 0.05%   -0.01% 0.19% 0.06% 0.01% -0.02% 0.00%
    GBP 0.05% 0.01%   0.17% 0.07% 0.03% -0.01% 0.01%
    JPY -0.12% -0.19% -0.17%   -0.10% -0.16% -0.21% -0.18%
    CAD -0.01% -0.06% -0.07% 0.10%   -0.05% -0.08% -0.06%
    AUD 0.03% -0.01% -0.03% 0.16% 0.05%   -0.04% -0.02%
    NZD 0.07% 0.02% 0.01% 0.21% 0.08% 0.04%   0.03%
    CHF 0.04% -0.00% -0.01% 0.18% 0.06% 0.02% -0.03%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

    Economic Indicator

    Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Last release: Fri Jan 17, 2025 02:00

    Frequency: Quarterly

    Actual: 5.4%

    Consensus: 5%

    Previous: 4.6%

    Source:

     



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  • Dollar turns lower, yen strengthens ahead of Trump inauguration By Reuters

    Dollar turns lower, yen strengthens ahead of Trump inauguration By Reuters


    (Corrects the size of a possible BOJ rate increase in paragraph 2 to 25 basis points, not 50 basis points)

    By Laura Matthews

    NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday, as softer-than-expected U.S. economic data and growing confidence for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike sent it tumbling to a near one-month low against the Japanese currency.

    Recent remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy Ryozo Himino have made clear that a hike will at least be discussed at next week’s policy meeting. Markets see about a 79% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

    Japan’s annual wholesale inflation held steady at 3.8% in December on stubbornly high food costs, data showed on Thursday.

    The greenback was down 0.81% against the yen at 155.2, its lowest since Dec. 19.

    “We anticipated that there would be a nuanced U.S. dollar behavior, that () would likely be stronger relative to a number of currencies, but would be weaker relative to the Japanese yen,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist, at Invesco U.S. “I think the general direction for JPY and the general direction for the dollar suggests that we will have a stronger yen to dollar.”

    The dollar was weaker against the euro, which rose 0.1% to $1.03, as traders digested a slew of mixed economic news to gauge the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts this year.

    U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month after upward revisions the previous month, data from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showed.

    Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels showing a healthy labor market.

    The Philadelphia Fed Business Index, which jumped to 44.3 in January, was the lone surprise as the forecast was for a reading of minus 5.

    That left – a measure of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies – down 0.05% at 108.97.

    Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco, said Wednesday’s softer consumer prices data continues to drive the markets’ tone, driving expectations that the Fed would still be pushing towards two rate cuts this year.

    But the sign of disinflation is happening when inflation could re-escalate, depending on the incoming administration’s trade policy.

    “The markets are generally in a slightly more upbeat mood, but in a holding pattern here until we get through Monday,” said Sahota.

    That’s when Donald Trump returns to the White House with some policies analysts expect will boost growth as well as increase price pressure.

    Another focus for markets on Thursday, was the nomination hearing of Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent to head the Treasury Department.

    Bessent is expected to keep a leash on U.S. deficits and to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, mitigating the expected inflationary impact of economic policies expected from the Trump administration.

    “So far, he hasn’t really said anything too far away from what we’re kind of expecting,” Sahota said. “This is a government … which needs to resolve itself on spending. So, we’re looking at government spending to come down. They really want to implement back in the tax cuts, we’ve seen that headline come through.”

    Traders who have been growing more worried about inflation responded with relief to Wednesday’s U.S. data, buying stocks and sending benchmark 10-year Treasury yields down more than 13 basis points.

    Treasury yields slipped on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said three or four interest cuts this year were still possible if U.S. economic data weakened further.

    Sterling was down 0.13% at $1.2228 against the dollar, having also earlier dropped sharply against the yen on Thursday as investors focused on monetary policy divergence after last week’s selloff in gilts and the pound.

    , seen on the front lines of tariff risk, was pinned near the weak end of its trading band at 7.3316. [CNY/]

    Currency              

    bid

    prices at

    16

    January​

    08:54

    p.m. GMT

    Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low

    on Close Change Bid Bid

    Previous

    Session

    Dollar 108.96 109.03 -0.05% 0.43% 109.4 108.

    index 82

    Euro/Doll 1.0299 1.029 0.1% -0.51% $1.0315 $1.0

    ar 26

    Dollar/Ye 155.19 156.505 -0.83% -1.36% 156.42 155.

    n 135

    Euro/Yen 159.84​ 160.97 -0.7% -2.07% 161.08 159.

    77

    Dollar/Sw 0.9111 0.9129 -0.18% 0.41% 0.9142 0.91

    iss

    Sterling/ 1.223 1.2245 -0.09% -2.19% $1.226 $1.2

    Dollar 173​

    Dollar/Ca 1.4393 1.4339 0.39% 0.1% 1.4403 1.43

    nadian 24

    Aussie/Do 0.621 0.6227 -0.24% 0.39% $0.6248 $0.6

    llar 192

    Euro/Swis 0.9382 0.9389 -0.07% -0.12% 0.9394 0.93

    s 71

    Euro/Ster 0.8418 0.8402 0.19% 1.75% 0.8438 0.84

    ling 07

    NZ 0.5606 0.5616 -0.11% 0.25% $0.5633 0.55

    Dollar/Do 82

    llar

    Dollar/No 11.3595​ 11.3256 0.3% -0.05% 11.4002 11.3

    rway 108

    Euro/Norw 11.701 11.6542 0.4% -0.58% 11.714 11.6

    ay 48

    Dollar/Sw 11.1507 11.1536 -0.03% 1.21% 11.1937 11.1

    eden 288

    Euro/Swed 11.485 11.4806 0.04% 0.16% 11.499 11.4

    en 75





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  • Sellers are making a play in the USDCHF. Can they keep the momentum going?

    Sellers are making a play in the USDCHF. Can they keep the momentum going?


    THe USDCHF felll sharply after yesterday’s US CPI and in the process fell below its 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart below currently at 0.9119). However, the momentum could not be sustained, and a snapback rally ensued with the price moving back to and through the 200-hour moving average and up to the 100-hour moving average (blue line hourly chart below).

    Sellers leaned against the 100-hour moving average and have kept a lid on the pair against that level. More recently in the US session a new break of the 200-hour moving average has led to new session lows for the day.

    The sellers are making a play.

    What is needed to keep the bias at least in the short term in favor of the sellers?

    Staying below the 200-hour moving average of 0.9119 is the best case scenario. If that can happen, a retest of the low from yesterday and the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.9077 will be the next major target. Break below that level and traders would start to look down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low. That level comes in at 0.90209. I would expect there would be good support buyers against that level on a test

    . If the 200 hour moving average is rebroken, that should disappoint the sellers and have traders looking toward another retest of the 100 hour moving average and 0.91429. Break above that and the high prices from earlier the week at 0.9200 would be a focused target.



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  • AUD/USD dips as Aussie jobs data sparkles, US retail sales dip

    AUD/USD dips as Aussie jobs data sparkles, US retail sales dip


    The Australian dollar is showing little movement on Thursday, after a three-day rally in which the Aussie rose 1.3%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6218, down 0.12% at the time of writing.

    Australia adds 56.3 thousand jobs 

    Australia’s labor market continues to hum and has been a bright light in an otherwise weak economy. In December, employment soared with a gain of 56.3 thousand, following a downwardly revised 28.2 thousand in November and crushing the market estimate of 15 thousand. The sharp gain, however, was comprised solely from part-time jobs (+80K) as full-time jobs declined (-23.7K). The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.0% from 3.9%, in line with the market estimate.

    The solid employment data means that the Reserve Bank of Australia need not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. The central bank has kept the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year and is keeping a close eye on the health of the labor market. The RBA meets next on Feb. 18 and the money markets have priced in quarter-point cut at around 75%. The RBA’s preferred measure for underlying inflation, the “trimmed mean”, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November, close to the upper band of the RBA’s 2-3% target. Australia releases fourth-quarter inflation data on Jan. 29, which could be a determining factor as to whether the RBA will finally cut rates or prolong the pause.

    US retail sales ease in December

    In the US, retail sales weakened in December. Annually, retail sales fell to 3.9% from an upwardly revised 4.1% and below the forecast of 4.0%. Monthly, retail sales fell to 0.4% from an upwardly revised 0.8% and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Despite the slowdown in December, consumer spending remains robust and the Federal Reserve won’t feel any pressure to change its rate paths due to today’s retail sales.

    This week’s weaker-than-expected retail sales and inflation reports have significantly raised the expectations of a rate cut in March, from 19% two days ago to 31% currently, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The Fed is virtually certain to hold rates at the Jan. 29 meeting.

    AUD/USD Technical

    • AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6218. Below, there is support at 0.6190
    • There is resistance at 0.6256 and 0.6284

    Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.





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  • South Korea’s FX reforms working amid political crisis, dealers say

    South Korea’s FX reforms working amid political crisis, dealers say

















































    South Korea’s FX reforms working amid political crisis, dealers say – FX Markets






    Martial law presented first test for reforms aimed at boosting deliverable KRW market


    KRW-reforms-a-success

    Foreign exchange activity in the wake of South Korea’s political crisis indicates recent reforms aimed at bringing more Korean won trading onshore and away from the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market are beginning to have an effect, dealers say.

    The Korean won sunk to a succession of historic lows against the US dollar last month amid political turmoil sparked by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise attempt to impose martial law. In late-hours trading on December 3, the gap between US

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  • Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps

    Cautious Trade Dominates as Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Leads, Gold Jumps


    Activity in the forex markets has turned relatively subdued today, with no clear trend emerging as traders shift into a cautious stance. With no top-tier economic data scheduled for the rest of the week, attention is turning to the impending inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump next Monday. The spotlight is squarely on his anticipated tariff policies, which could have profound implications for global trade and economic stability.

    Yen holds its position as the strongest currency of the day, buoyed by increasing speculation of a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan at its meeting next week. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s consistent messaging has reinforced market expectations, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of policy tightening.

    Swiss Franc ranks second best, benefiting from decline in European benchmark yields. Dollar is the third-best performer, continuing to consolidate against its peers. The greenback’s movements were unaffected by slightly worse-than-expected US jobless claims and retail sales data.

    On the downside, New Zealand Dollar has overtaken Sterling as the weakest currency of the day. Pound remains under pressure following disappointing GDP data but has not faced aggressive selling. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar is the third weakest, while Euro and Canadian Dollar trade in mixed fashion.

    Technically, Gold’s rally this week suggests that choppy rebound from 2536.67 is actually still in progress. Further rise is now in favor through 2725.95 resistance in the near term. However, this rise is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 2789.92. Hence, upside should be below this high. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 2643.87) will argue that the third leg has started to 2536.67 support and below.

    US initial jobless claims falls to 217k vs exp 210k

    US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 217k in the week ending January 11, above expectation of 210k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 213k.

    Continuing claims fell -18k to 1859k in the week ending January 4. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -1k to 1867k.

    US retail sales rise 0.4% mom in Dec, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom

    US retail sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 729.2B in December, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 586.3B, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 676.8B. Ex-auto & gasoline sales rose 0.4% mom to USD 533.9B.

    Total sales for the October through December period were up 3.7% from the same period a year ago.

    ECB Minutes: Gradual easing essential to monitor disinflation check points

    ECB’s December 11–12 meeting minutes noted that while the 25 bps rate cut decided at the meeting was widely supported, some members argued for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction.

    Some policymakers contended that a larger rate cut would have better addressed Eurozone’s weakening economic projections, with one noting that “successive projection exercises have shown increasing downside risks to growth.”

    However, the majority concurred that a smaller, measured cut aligned with the “controlled pace of easing” and provided a “sense of the direction” of the path of interest rates.

    The minutes emphasize while projections were conditional on a further rate cut in January, the meeting underscored that “data dependency precluded any foregone conclusions.”

    The minutes also stated that the “measured pace of interest rate cuts” was essential to ensure that ECB could “pass critical checkpoints to verify disinflation remains on track.” Furthermore, it was highlighted that optionality must be preserved to address risks that could derail inflation stabilization, including geopolitical tensions, global trade disruptions, and energy price volatility.

    Nevertheless, “if the baseline projection for inflation is confirmed over the next few months and quarters,” the minutes noted, a “gradual dialing back of policy restrictiveness” would be appropriate.

    Eurozone goods exports fall -1.6% yoy in Nov, imports down -1.0% yoy

    Eurozone goods exports fell -1.6% yoy to EUR 248.3B in November. Good imports fell -1.0% yoy to EUR 231.9B. Trade balanced showed a EUR 16.4B surplus. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -7.0% yoy to EUR 214.8B.

    In seasonally adjusted term, goods exports rose 3.2% mom to EUR 240.6B.Goods imports rose 0.7% mom to EUR 227.8B. Trade balance widened from October’s EUR 7.0B to EUR 12.9B, larger than expectation of EUR 7.2B. Intra-Eurozone trade fell -1.7% mom to EUR 210.4B.

    UK GDP grows only 0.1% mom in Nov, with mixed sector performance

    UK’s economy posted modest growth in November, with GDP increasing by 0.1% mom, but slightly missing market expectations of 0.2%. Nevertheless, this marked a positive turnaround from the -0.1% mom contraction in October.

    Sectoral performance was mixed, with services, the largest contributor to the economy, inching up by 0.1% mom, while production fell by -0.4% mom. Construction activity, however, provided a brighter spot, rising 0.4% mom during the month.

    Despite November’s modest gains, the broader economic picture remains subdued. Over the three months to November 2024, real GDP showed no growth compared to the three months to August. Services, which account for a significant portion of the UK’s output, stagnated over this period. Production output contracted by -0.7%, offsetting the 0.2% growth seen in construction.

    BoJ’s Ueda reiterates rate hike debate for next week’s policy meeting

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated today, for the second time this week, that the central bank will “debate whether to raise interest rates” at its upcoming January 23-24 policy meeting. This marks the second time in this week that Ueda has emphasized

    Ueda’s comments come as BoJ prepares its new quarterly economic report, which will serve as the basis for its policy decision. While the Governor has not committed to a specific outcome, the repeated message signals that a rate hike is a plausible scenario, barring any significant market shocks tied to the January 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

    Market sentiment, nevertheless, remains divided on the timing of the anticipated hike. A recent poll conducted between January 8-15 shows that 59 out of 61 economists expect BoJ to raise rates to 0.50% by the end of March. Yet, only 20 foresee the move occurring at this month’s meeting.

    Japan’s PPI holds steady at 3.8% as import prices turn positive

    Japan’s PPI held steady at 3.8% yoy in December, meeting market expectations and maintaining the previous month’s pace. Key drivers included a sharp 31.8% yoy rise in agricultural goods prices, fueled by soaring rice costs.

    Energy costs also contributed significantly, with electric power, gas, and water prices climbing 12.9% year-on-year. This uptick comes as the government phases out subsidies designed to mitigate rising utility and gasoline prices.

    Yen-based import prices turned positive, rising 1.0% yoy after three months of declines. While modest, this reversal underscores the lingering effects of Yen depreciation, which was recorded at -0.1% mom.

    Australia’s employment grows 56.3k in Dec, showing continuous resilience

    Australia’s labor market displayed resilience in December as employment surged by 56.3k, significantly exceeding expectations of a 15.0k increase. Number of unemployed people also rose by 10.3k, contributing to a slight uptick in the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 4.0%, in line with forecasts.

    Participation rate climbed to a record high of 67.1%, up from 67.0%, reflecting an expanding labor force. Additionally, employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to a new peak of 64.5%, showcasing the labor market’s capacity to absorb more workers. Monthly hours worked increased by 0.5% mom, equivalent to 10 million additional hours.

    This data supports the view that the labor market’s earlier signs of easing have stabilized in the second half of 2024. Robust employment growth, consistent levels of average hours worked, and unchanged or lower levels of labor underutilization compared to a year ago affirm the ongoing strength of the job market.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0248; (P) 1.0302; (R1) 1.0344; More…

    EUR/USD is still engaged in consolidations above 1.0176 and intraday bias stays neutral. With 1.0435 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume the fall from 1.1213 and target 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0330 from 1.0629 at 1.0083. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.0435 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2023 high) should either be the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low), or another down leg of the long term down trend. In both cases, sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0199 will pave the way back to 0.9534. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0629 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Dec 3.80% 3.80% 3.70% 3.80%
    00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Jan 4.00% 4.20%
    00:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Dec 28% 28% 25%
    00:30 AUD Employment Change Dec 56.3K 15.0K 35.6K 28.2K
    00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Dec 4.00% 4.00% 3.90%
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Dec F 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Dec F 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
    07:00 GBP GDP M/M Nov 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Nov -0.40% 0.10% -0.60%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Nov -1.80% -1.00% -0.70%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Nov -0.30% 0.20% -0.60%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov -1.20% -0.30% 0.00%
    07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Nov -19.3B -18.0B -19.0B -19.3B
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov 12.9B 7.2B 6.1B 7.0B
    12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    13:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Dec 231K 250K 262K 267K
    13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10) 217K 210K 201K 203K
    13:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.70% 0.80%
    13:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Dec 0.40% 0.50% 0.20%
    13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec 0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
    13:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jan 44.3 -8.5 -16.4
    15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 47 46
    15:00 USD Business Inventories Nov 0.10% 0.10%
    15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -260B -40B

     



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  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Update – Strong Earnings Power Market Gains

    S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Update – Strong Earnings Power Market Gains


    • TSMC’s strong Q4 2024 earnings and positive 2025 forecast boosted market sentiment and drove gains in chip stocks like Nvidia.
    • Overall corporate profits remain strong, with a high percentage of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings estimates.
    • Technically, the S&P 500 is still in a bearish trend, but a close above the 5981 handle could signal a change in structure and potential further upside.

    Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) vs. Nasdaq: Is the Correlation Affecting Crypto Outflows?

    U.S. stocks saw a boost before the market opened, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.5%, helped by positive news from TSMC, a major chipmaker for Apple and Nvidia. S&P 500 futures went up 0.3% after gaining 1.8% on Wednesday, its best day since the November election. 

    TSMC Provides Hope for AI Spending

    TSMC’s 2025 forecast beat market expectations across all important areas, easing worries about a drop in AI spending. 

    TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue grew 38.8% to NT$868.46 billion, beating the expected NT$850.08 billion. In U.S. dollars, revenue reached $26.4 billion, slightly above the company’s forecast of $26.1-26.9 billion. Net income rose 57% to a record NT$374.68 billion, with earnings per share at NT$14.45. Analysts had predicted NT$366.61 billion in net income. Overall, TSMC’s profit hit a record high, increasing 57% from last year, while revenue jumped nearly 39%.

    Source: App Economy Insights (click to enlarge) 

    More interestingly however, TSMC expects to spend up to 19% more than analysts thought which adds to the belief that a slowdown in AI spending may not materialize. Speaking on the results, Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang. “Moving into first quarter 2025, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand.”

    The news left TSMC trading 3.76% up on the day and helping drag other chipmakers along for the ride. Nvidia is one of the major beneficiaries, trading up around 3.3% at the time of writing. 

    Earnings Season – Corporate Profits Remain Strong 

    Earnings season got off to a bright start yesterday with three of the country’s biggest banks smashing their earnings estimates. Of the 28 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported fourth-quarter earnings as of Wednesday, 82.1% have surpassed estimates, according to data compiled by LSEG.

    The good news continued today as both Bank of America and Morgan Stanley saw their earnings reports beat expectations as well. Morgan Stanley’s profit grew in the fourth quarter, driven by a surge in deals and stock sales, pushing its yearly revenue to a record high.

    Bank of America reported higher-than-expected profits on Thursday as its traders took advantage of busy fourth-quarter activity, and the bank said it expects to earn more interest income in 2025. On an adjusted basis, BofA earned 82 cents per share in the fourth quarter, beating analysts’ expectation of 77 cents per share, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. 

    Shares were up 2.7% in premarket trade. 

    The Week Ahead

    This week earnings are largely done for now with major earnings releases set to continue next week Tuesday January 21, 2025. Netflix will report after the market close on Tuesday which will come a day after the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President.

    The next 10 days will be crucial for markets as incoming President Trump has promised major moves from day one, many of which may have an impact on US Equities and markets in general. 

    For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

    Technical Analysis 

    S&P 500

    From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 remains in a bearish trend on the daily timeframe.

    The swing high of Monday January 6, continues to hold firm with a daily candle close above the 5981 handle needed for a change in structure. 

    If this does not materialize the S&P 500 remains vulnerable to further downside. 

    Immediate support rests at 5910 before the confluence level at 5828-5835 comes into focus. Here we have a key area of support as well as the 100-day MA. Lower down we have support at 5757 and 5668 respectively.

    If the S&P is able to close above the 5981 handle then 6025 and the ATH print around 6094 come into focus.

    S&P 500 Daily Chart, January 16, 2025

    Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) 

    Support

    Resistance

    Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

    Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.





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  • Pound Sterling slides as UK economy barely grow in November

    Pound Sterling slides as UK economy barely grow in November


    • The Pound Sterling drops as the UK GDP rose at a slower-than-expected pace, and factory activity contracted in November.
    • Traders have raised BoE dovish bets for February’s policy meeting.
    • Investors await the US weekly jobless claims and Retail Sales data for December on Thursday.

    The Pound Sterling faces selling pressure in Thursday’s North American session after the release of the United Kingdom’s (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for November. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy returned to growth after contracting in October. However, the growth rate was slower than projected. The economy rose by 0.1% after declining at a similar pace in October. Economists expected the economy to have expanded by 0.2%.

    Both Manufacturing and Industrial Production data contracted in November on a monthly as well as annual basis. Month-on-month, Industrial and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. The pace of decline was slower than that seen in October. Economists expected Industrial Production to have grown by 0.1%, while Manufacturing Production was estimated to have remained flat.

    Signs of continuous weakness in the UK factory activity suggest that producers are not fully utilizing their operating capacity on the assumption that the already weak demand environment will worsen further after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump slaps hefty import tariffs globally once he takes office.

    However, growing expectations that the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy easing will be less gradual this year would offer some relief for factory owners. Traders have raised BoE dovish bets after the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December on Wednesday, which showed signs of cooling price pressures.

    Traders see a roughly 84% chance that the BoE will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% at its policy meeting in February. For the entire year, economists expect four interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll.

    Cooling price pressures have offered some relief to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves as they led to a pause in the rally in yields on UK gilts. 30-year UK gilt yields have corrected to 5.28% from their more-than-26-year high of 5.47%. The British currency has faced a significant decline in the last few trading days as soaring UK gilt yields due to uncertainty over the economic outlook.

    British Pound PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. The British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

      GBP EUR USD JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    GBP   -0.28% -0.29% -0.68% 0.00% -0.10% -0.07% -0.48%
    EUR 0.28%   -0.01% -0.40% 0.30% 0.19% 0.22% -0.20%
    USD 0.29% 0.00%   -0.41% 0.30% 0.19% 0.22% -0.20%
    JPY 0.68% 0.40% 0.41%   0.71% 0.58% 0.57% 0.20%
    CAD -0.01% -0.30% -0.30% -0.71%   -0.10% -0.08% -0.49%
    AUD 0.10% -0.19% -0.19% -0.58% 0.10%   0.03% -0.39%
    NZD 0.07% -0.22% -0.22% -0.57% 0.08% -0.03%   -0.41%
    CHF 0.48% 0.20% 0.20% -0.20% 0.49% 0.39% 0.41%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against USD 

    • The Pound Sterling remains under pressure slightly below 1.2200 against the US Dollar (USD) in North American trading hours. The GBP/USD pair falls due to weak UK data. While, the US Dollar trades higher, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 109.30, but is likely to face selling pressure as the US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending January 10 remains higher-than-expected and the Retail Sales data rose moderately in December.
    • The US Department of Labor reported individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were 217K, higher than estimates of 210K and the prior release of 203K. Month-on-month Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.4%, slower than estimates of 0.6% and the former release of 0.8%. However, the Retail Sales rose at a faster pace of 3.9% than the prior reading of 3.8%.
    • Going forward, the US Dollar will be influenced by market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action for the entire year.
    • Market participants expect the Fed’s policy-easing path to be less gradual than anticipated earlier. Expectations for the Fed policy outlook were impacted after the release of the United States (US) inflation data for December on Wednesday, which showed that the progress in the disinflation trend has not stalled yet.
    • According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to deliver more than one interest rate cut this year and anticipate the first reduction in June. Before December’s inflation data, traders were anticipating only one interest rate reduction in September.

    Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays below 1.2200

    The Pound Sterling trades near the key level of 1.2200 against the US Dollar on Thursday. The outlook for the Cable remains weak as the vertically declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2394 suggests that the near-term trend is extremely bearish.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds slightly after diving below 30.00 as the momentum oscillator turned oversold. However, the broader scenario remains bearish until it recovers inside the 20.00-40.00 range.

    Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the October 2023 low of 1.2050. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key resistance.

    Economic Indicator

    Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

     



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  • UBS recommends shorting India’s rupee By Investing.com

    UBS recommends shorting India’s rupee By Investing.com



    Investing.com — UBS Group AG (NYSE:) is advising investors to short the Indian rupee and reduce their holdings in the country’s stocks. The Swiss banking institution’s research division suggests that India’s $4 trillion economy is experiencing a structural slowdown. This downturn isn’t attributed to cyclical factors such as oil price fluctuations or sluggish government expenditure.

    The research group cites a long-term decline in credit growth, foreign direct investment, export competitiveness, and earnings potential as reasons for the slowdown. These factors are expected to deteriorate further after Donald Trump assumes the US presidency.

    Manik Narain, the London-based head of Emerging Market strategy research at UBS, challenges the conventional belief that India is relatively insulated from the impact of Trump’s policies compared to other emerging markets.

    He emphasizes that a potentially prolonged period of high US yields could pose a challenge to India’s growth. This is due to India’s high debt service-to-revenue ratio, one of the highest among major emerging markets.

    Over the past month, Indian stocks have seen nearly $500 billion wiped off their market value. This marks the worst start to a year since 2016, according to MSCI Inc (NYSE:).’s index for the nation. The Indian rupee has also hit consecutive record lows against the US dollar, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia.

    Additionally, India’s bonds are experiencing their fastest outflows since 2020, as enthusiasm over their inclusion in global bond indexes fades.

    This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.





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  • Top 10 Strongest Currencies 2025 | Which Currency Is the Highest and Most Expensive in the World ?

    Top 10 Strongest Currencies 2025 | Which Currency Is the Highest and Most Expensive in the World ?


    In times of global instability, currency markets face numerous factors influencing the value of national currencies. Variables like inflation, interest rates, and trade balance play a crucial role in shaping the exchange rate. 

    The highest currency serves not only as a sign of economic resilience but also as an attractive asset for international investors. Amid volatility, certain countries have maintained their positions, issuing some of the most valuable currencies in the world. In this article, we’ll reveal which one is the highest currency in the world and what makes it so sought after.

    The article covers the following subjects:

    Major Takeaways

    • The article provides an overview of the top 10 strongest currencies in 2025, highlighting the role of central bank policy and economic stability in maintaining currency strength.
    • It underscores the Euro as a highly traded and stable currency, with its value determined by the political, social, and economic status of Eurozone member countries.
    • The Swiss Franc is seen as a safe bet, particularly during crisis times, due to its stability.
    • As the world’s most traded currency and a global reserve, the US Dollar maintains its value even in tumultuous times.
    • The Canadian Dollar’s value is closely tied to the US dollar and the country’s natural resources, like oil and uranium.
    • The article sums up that political stability, economic stability, low inflation, high-interest rates, and well-planned monetary policies can raise a currency’s value. It also lists the weakest currencies and points out that the Kuwaiti dinar is the most expensive currency, and the Swiss franc is the safest.

    What defines the highest currencies in the world?

    The value and currency exchange rate of the highest currencies in the world are influenced by a variety of economic and political factors that determine their standing on the global market. A high currency is an indicator of a country’s financial stability and attractiveness to investors. Below are the main factors that shape the exchange rate of the highest currencies:

    • Economic Stability: Countries with stable economies tend to have stronger currencies. A reliable economic structure provides favorable conditions for a stronger currency.

    • Interest Rates: Higher interest rates attract foreign investors, boosting demand for a currency and aiding its strength.

    • Trade Balance: A positive trade balance (exports exceeding imports) helps support a high currency exchange rate, especially for exporting nations.

    • Inflation Rates: Low inflation helps a currency maintain its value, an essential aspect for retaining the status of the highest currencies in the world.

    • Political Stability: Countries with stable political systems attract more foreign investments, positively impacting the demand for their currency.

    • Investment Attractiveness: Nations with well-developed financial infrastructure and favorable policies for foreign investors often have high currencies.

    • Economic Confidence: A high level of confidence in a country’s economy supports stronger currencies in global competition.

    Each of these factors contributes to forming the currency exchange rate, reinforcing its status as one of the strongest and highest currencies in the world.

    Example 1:

    Low Taxes and Tax-Free Systems: Countries offering tax benefits generally attract foreign investment, strengthening their currency.

    Example 2:

    Oil Exporting Nations: Countries with high oil production, like Saudi Arabia, often have stronger currencies since oil prices can bolster demand for their currency.

    List of 10 Strongest Currencies in the World 2025

    We have put together a list of the top 10 most valuable currencies in 2025. This comprehensive currency ranking in the world highlights the strongest and most stable currencies, including those that outperform the US dollar in value. 

    Rank

    Currency (Currency code)

    Exchange rate

    1

    Kuwaiti dinar (KWD)

    1 KWD = 3.24 USD

    2

    Bahraini Dinar (BHD)

    1 BHD = 2.65 USD

    3

    Omani rial (OMR)

    1 OMR = 2.60 USD

    4

    Jordanian dinar (JOD)

    1 JOD = 1.41 USD

    5

    British Pound Sterling (GBP)

    1 GBP = 1.22384 USD

    6

    Cayman Islands Dollar (KYD)

    1 KYD = 1.20 USD

    7

    European Euro (EUR)

    1 EUR = 1.02989 USD

    8

    Swiss Franc (CHF)

    CHF = 1.10 USD

    9

    US Dollar (USD)

    1 USD 

    10

    Canadian Dollar (CAD)

    1 CAD = 0.69 USD

    There are 8 currencies in the world stronger than the USD.

    Let’s take a closer look at each of them, as well as the remaining positions in our top 10 list of the world’s most valuable currencies.

    1. Kuwaiti Dinar

    Kuwaiti dinar (KWD) is considered the strongest currency in the world in 2025. KWD is freely convertible and has the highest monetary value. Kuwait is one of the richest countries in the Middle East, with access to the northwestern part of the Persian Gulf. The country has huge oil reserves, which also contributed significantly to the strength and stability of the value of Kuwait’s currency. Kuwait has built up a sizable sovereign wealth fund over the years. This fund is managed by the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) and contributes to Kuwait’s long-term high value.

    Since the economy of Kuwait is based entirely on the country’s huge oil and gas reserves and oil exports, the slump in global crude oil prices causes a deficit in Kuwait’s economy. However, the KIA has drawn up a seven-year plan to counter this, ensuring the value of the Kuwaiti Dinar remains strong and stable. A rise in demand pushes prices up and supports the domestic official currency. Conversely, the decline in demand and increased supply pulls the oil prices down and negatively affects the Kuwaiti dinar. 

    1 KWD = 3.24 USD

    2. Bahraini Dinar

    Bahrain is a small country that is one of the former British colonies. Bahraini dinar is the second most valuable currency. Upon being pegged to the United States dollar, the Bahraini dinar, with a currency code — BHD, had a somewhat better face value than the Omani rial. Despite the detrimental effects of low oil prices on Bahrain’s economy, the Bahraini dinar’s yearly average has been relatively stable since 2011. Bahrain’s inflation rate was also stable and low. The only way to qualify the inflation rate of Bahrain is through expressing its stability and low rate of growth — both factors that strengthen the economy. As a result, the Bahraini dinar has the second highest currency value in our rating.

    1 BHD = 2.65 USD

    3. Omani Rial

    The third highest currency is Omani Rial. The fixed exchange rates have stayed at USD 2.6008 per RO since the last modification in parity in 1986. The Omani rial (OMR) has maintained its value against the dollar due to Oman’s traditionally rigorous monetary policy and financial restrictions. To protect the country from the unfortunate but frequent Middle Eastern wars and turbulence, Omani politicians have traditionally regulated the money supply. The country’s official currency rate has risen as a result, and Oman’s lending restrictions tend to favor offshore enterprises and Forex trading initiatives with a high risk appetite.

    1 OMR = 2.60 USD

    4. Jordanian Dinar

    When compared to the US dollar, the Jordanian Dinar (currency code – JOD) has a higher value, despite being pegged since 1995. It is the forth highest currency in the world. This was done to keep Jordan’s legal tender steady in order to attract American investments. It’s important to remember that any country can peg its currency to the dollar at any time. To sustain the peg, the currency such as in the case of the Jordanian dinar must maintain its value in relation to the United States dollar. During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, Jordan was successful in doing so.

    1 JOD = 1.41 USD

    5. British Pound Sterling

    British Pound sterling is the fifth highest currency worldwide and one of the most traded currencies as well. For decades, the Bank of England (BOE) has kept pace with global currency trends, keeping the pound more valuable than the US dollar. The British pound sterling (GBP), the official currency of the UK, was worth more than the US dollar for much of the twentieth century. In the 1980s, this pattern shifted, with the British pound restoring its previous advantage over the US dollar.

    While the BOE is the most important factor in deciding the value of the British Pound (GBP), there are other things out there. Inflation and growth of the economy play their own part. Forex market sentiment is another feature you should consider. As the UK is one of the leading and stable economies, global political and economic events affect the value of the British pound.

    6. Cayman Islands Dollar

    The Cayman Islands dollar (KYD) was fixed at 1.20 US dollars in the 1970s. It takes the 6th position among the highest currencies worldwide. It may appear that producing a currency worth more than the United States dollar is a straightforward process, but it is more complicated than it appears. A currency peg like that in case of the Cayman Islands dollar can be difficult to maintain when local economic conditions are bad, and the US raises interest rates. The exchange rate value of the Cayman Islands dollar is bolstered by the country’s status as one of the tax havens for the wealthy.

    1 KYD = 1.20 USD

    7. Euro

    European Euro is the second most traded currency in the world which is also considered to be among the most stable currencies. Because it is responsible for the entire continent’s monetary policy, the European Central Bank (ECB), which makes monetary policy for the European union eurozone, has more independence from national governments than most other central banks. This independence helps to keep the European euro strong, but it also contributed to the European sovereign debt crisis and rising unemployment rate by prohibiting some countries (such as Greece and Italy) from taking specific actions to help stimulate their economies (such as printing additional money). It is the most common pair for the US Dollar when it comes to trading in the global Forex market. EUR/USD is considered to be one of the most traded currency pairs.

    Because the European euro is the de facto official currency of nineteen countries, its value is determined by the political, social, and economic status of all of these countries. This includes the status of the stock market, the chaos of projections and analyses, as well as the measures taken by the ECB.

    8. Swiss Franc

    The Swiss franc takes the 8th position among the highest currencies worldwide and it is Switzerland’s official currency. The franc rose in value against the euro and the US dollar as a result of the European debt crisis and US monetary policy. The Swiss National Bank said in 2015 that the franc’s peg to the European euro was no longer viable and would be lifted. Although the euro is often accepted as a means of payment in Switzerland, change is only offered in Swiss francs. Widely topping the ranking as the most secure source of foreign exchange market, the Swiss franc is always a safe bet for currency pairs.

    Thanks to the European debt crisis of 2008, many investors turned to the franc as an alternative. Because the franc was a stable currency, this allowed it to be the safe haven that everyone needed — an investment that gives returns consistently even in a state of crisis.

    9. US Dollar

    The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America (United States dollar), it is the world’s most traded currency as well as one of the largest reserve currencies. The US dollar is the world’s most extensively used currency and is considered a benchmark in the international market when it comes to currency exchange rate and conversion rate. It is also used as a legal tender in a number of countries outside of the United States, and many others use it as an unofficial currency alongside their own.

    The United States dollar has long been seen as a cornerstone of the global economy and a world reserve currency for international trade and finance, making it a safe investment no matter what is happening in the world. Market psychology and geopolitical risk, in addition to fundamentals and technical variables, influence the dollar’s value on the global market.

    10. Canadian Dollar

    The Canadian dollar, Canada’s official currency, is the world’s sixth most traded currency which is also included in the list of the highest currencies globally. Because of the country’s massive global oil reserves and second-largest uranium supply, both of which are located in Alberta, Canada’s natural resources are ranked third in the world. The Canadian dollar is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of the US dollar because it accounts for the great majority of Canada’s trade.

    Top Currencies Ranked 11th to 20th

    Сontinuing our exploration of the world currency ranking 2025, we now present the top currencies ranked 11th to 20th. While the top 10 dominate the market, these monetary units also play a significant role in shaping the global economy. Let’s take a closer look at them.

    Rank

    Currency (Currency code)

    Exchange rate

    11

    Singapore Dollar (SGD)

    1 SGD = 0.73147 USD

    12

    Brunei Dollar (BND)

    1 BND = 0.73043 USD

    13

    Australian Dollar (AUD)

    1 AUD = 0.62091 USD

    14

    New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

    1 NZD = 0.56045 USD

    15

    Azerbaijani Manat (AZN)

    1 AZN = 0.58823 USD

    16

    Aruban Florin (AWG)

    1 AWG = 0.5587 USD

    17

    Bulgarian Lev (BGN)

    1 BGN = 0.52615 USD

    18

    Convertible Mark (BAM)

    1 BAM = 0.52615 USD

    19

    Fijian Dollar (FJD)

    1 FJD = 0.429784 USD

    20

    Israeli Shekel (ILS)

    1 ILS = 0.275991 USD

    11. Singapore Dollar (SGD)

    The Singapore dollar is the official currency of Singapore, one of the largest financial centers in the world.

    12. Brunei Dollar (BND)

    The Brunei dollar is used in Brunei and is at par with the Singapore dollar, enhancing its value on the international stage.

    13. Australian Dollar (AUD)

    The Australian dollar is one of the most popular currencies in the international market, largely because of the country’s commodity-based economy.

    14. New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

    The New Zealand dollar, referred to as the Kiwi, is popular in global markets due to the robust stability of the country’s economy.

    15. Azerbaijani Manat (AZN)

    Manat is the official currency of Azerbaijan, supported by oil and gas exports, which play a crucial role in the country’s economy.

    16. Aruban Florin (AWG)

    The Aruban florin serves as the island of Aruba’s currency, pegged to the US dollar and used primarily within the island.

    17. Bulgarian Lev (BGN)

    The Bulgarian lev, Bulgaria’s official currency, is pegged to the euro, which helps maintain its stability.

    18. Convertible Mark (BAM)

    This currency is used in Bosnia and Herzegovina and is pegged to the euro, making it stable in the international arena.

    19. Fijian Dollar (FJD)

    The Fiji dollar serves as the currency of the Fiji Islands and is bolstered by the tourism and sugar export economy.

    20. Israeli Shekel (ILS)

    The shekel is the official currency of Israel, whose economy is based on high-tech industries and innovation.

    Summary

    In closing, it is quite apparent from the list of the world’s strongest currencies — as well as what it takes for them to get there – that everything is in the hands of policymakers at the highest level. Whether a currency rises or falls is dependent on the central banks’ monetary policy and the quality of the management governing the systems in place. Strength and stability go hand in hand, and that is what raises the value of any currency for conversion, no matter what it is. 

    To sum up, the factors that raise the monetary value of a currency are political stability, economic stability, low inflation, high interest rates, properly planned monetary policies, and low prices to attract countries with a larger purchasing power. A strong developed economy promotes low unemployment and secures a good place in the realm of currency trading in the banking and exchange market.

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    The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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