This is Goldman’s second downward revision in a week, which gives the cuts additional weight as a directional signal rather than a knee-jerk reaction. The bring-forward of Persian Gulf export normalisation by a month, to end-July from end-August, is the mechanical driver of the forecast change and implies a more optimistic read on mine clearance,
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The relative calm in JGBs ahead of the decision reflects a market that has already done its pricing work. A hike to 1% is not the story; Deputy Governor Uchida’s forward guidance at the 0630 GMT briefing is. Any signal of an accelerated path toward 1.25% would put fresh upward pressure on yields and the
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The Reserve Bank of Australia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The RBA is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 4.35 percent. The Bank of Japan will also conclude its monetary policy meeting
A hike to 1% is essentially fully priced by markets, so the immediate yen and JGB reaction will hinge on Deputy Governor Uchida’s tone at the post-meeting briefing. Any signal of a faster-than-expected path toward 1.25% would put fresh upward pressure on the yen and weigh on Japanese equities. The Iran peace framework introduces a
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By any measure it was a great day for the US stock market but I’m going to highlight some of the negatives anyway. But first, here are the closing changes: S&P 500 +1.6% Nasdaq Comp +3.1% Russell 2000 +0.9% DJIA +0.9% The Russell 2000 hit a record but it closed near the lows of the
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Senior US official says: U.S. has signed MOU with Iran Trump, Vance signed MOU, so did Iranian parliamentary speaker Deal provides for immediate opening of Strait of Hormuz and lifting of U.S. blockade on Iran There will be significant increase in traffic in Strait starting already U.S. has signed MOU with Iran Details of agreement
Homebuilder confidence has seen a modest deterioration in the month of June, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Monday. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dipped to 35 in June after jumping to 37 in May. Economists had expected the index to edge down to
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Markets are finally getting the outcome they have been hoping for. After months of conflict, Washington and Tehran announced a peace agreement that would bring an immediate end to hostilities, setting the stage for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the gradual restoration of normal oil flows. Investors wasted little time responding. The
New orders +3.5 vs +22.7 prior Shipments +8.6 vs +18.9 prior Prices paid +61.0 vs +62.6 prior Prices received +31.4 vs +31.8 prior Employment +9.6 vs +8.3 prior Supply availability -13.9 vs -10.7 prior (lowest since June 2022) Six-month outlook +30.1 vs +33.5 prior The headline gave back fourteen points after May’s surprise pop. Activity
Macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging Bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a macro-sensitive risk asset. Persistent inflation pressures, elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policy have reduced investor appetite for speculative investments. Geopolitical tensions and concerns over slowing global growth have also encouraged defensive positioning across financial markets, contributing to recent weakness in
India’s wholesale price inflation accelerated further in May, largely driven by soaring fuel costs caused by the impact of the Middle East war, data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Monday. The wholesale price index climbed 9.68 percent year-over-year in May, faster than the 8.26 percent rise in April, according to the
Kelvin Wong Senior Market Analyst Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities. Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an
