The explosive post-IPO price action on SpaceX has entered a potential bearish consolidation phase. After surging from its 135.00 IPO floor to an intraday all-time high of 225.64 on 16 June 2026, the stock has shed 28%, closing at 160.42 on Monday, 6 July 2026, signalling that the initial hyper-bullish impulsive wave has reached exhaustion.
We are now taking reference from the price actions of the SpaceX perpetual contract (SPCX/USDT), a crypto derivative listed on the Binance crypto exchange since 21 May 2026, to construct a more meaningful technical analysis outlook on SpaceX, as SPCX/USDT offers more historical data over the cash equity listed on the Nasdaq exchange (see Fig. 2).
Since its low of 146.87 printed on 23 June 2026, SPCX/USDT has been oscillating within a “bearish flag” configuration that indicates a pause before a new potential bearish impulsive down move sequence resumes.
In addition, the 4-hour RSI momentum has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending trendline support and now hovers below the 50 level. These observations suggest near-term bearish momentum has resurfaced.
Watch the 176.95 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 152.60 intermediate support (the lower boundary of the “bearish flag”) opens scope for a new potential bearish leg to retest 146.87/141.90 (23 June 2026 low and Fibonacci extension) before exposing the next medium-term support at 131.76 (Fibonacci extension).
On the flip side, a clearance and a daily close above 176.95 would invalidate the bearish scenario, triggering a squeeze up towards the next medium-term resistances at 199.30 and 212.70.