- The Dow Jones rallied 600 points on Monday as the index extends its rebound.
- Equities are recovering their stance after a recent plunge on geopolitical concerns.
- US Retail Sales figures from February recovered, but not by much.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 600 points on Monday as equities continue to claw back ground after a recent downturn that saw major indexes inch toward correction territory. US economic data continues to hint at a possible slowdown looming ahead, but oversold equity markets are shrugging off the warning signs falling too far, too quickly over the last few weeks.
US Retail Sales rebounded to a tepid 0.2% MoM in February after January’s plunge. Markets were hoping for a better showing from key retail activity results, with a median forecast of 0.7%. Data watchers will note that January’s figure was also revised to a two-year low of -1.2%, and downside revisions will continue to plague the economic calendar as US data continues to worsen on the front end of the curve.
Despite a near-term rebound in equity markets, key indexes remain steeply lower in March, sparked by overarching tariff threats from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump has played fast and loose with his constantly changing tariff threats, introducing a new level of policy friction that markets have yet to become accustomed to. Despite President Trump flat-out refusing to acknowledge a growing risk of recession at the hands of his trade policies, key comments from people within his administration have tipped their hands that Trump’s team expect some “economic pain”. However, the Trump administration’s attempt to rebrand economic contraction as “resetting US markets” seems to have gone over rather poorly with investors.
Dow Jones news
The Dow Jones has extended into a second day of recovery gains, with the majority of the major equity index rising on Monday. UnitedHealth (UNH), Walmart (WM), and IBM (IBM) have all risen over 2% on the day. UNH rose back to $500 per share, Walmart climbed back over $85 per share, and IBM has reclaimed $250 per share. On the low end, Nvidia fell back 2.5%, dipping back below $120 per share as the tech rally continues to face difficulties.
Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is seeking a technical recovery following a rapid rebalancing of investor expectations: the Dow Jones has climbed 600 points on Monday, adding further momentum to last Friday’s 550-point gain. However, the key index remains steeply off of recent highs, declining over 3,300 points top-to-bottom over the last two weeks.
Bidding pressure is pushing the Dow Jones back toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 42,000 handle. The DJIA found a technical floor at the 41,000 key price level, but buyers remain at the low end of a particularly steep hole as the Dow trades 3,300 points below record highs set last November just north of 45,000.
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Last release: Mon Mar 17, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 0.2%
Consensus: 0.7%
Previous: -0.9%
Source: US Census Bureau