Markets are entering the Federal Reserve decision with remarkably little uncertainty about what policymakers will do, but considerable uncertainty about what they will signal next. The first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh as Chair is widely expected to deliver an unchanged federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with little chance of dissent. Following Stephen Miran’s departure […]
Usually, rising oil prices have generally been a source of support for Canadian Dollar. This week, however, that relationship is breaking down. Despite Brent crude climbing back above $95 per barrel as US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, Canadian Dollar has weakened sharply against its US counterpart. The key reason is a new threat from Washington that
Eurozone inflation has given EUR/CAD a reason to stay bid, but perhaps not yet a reason to break much higher. The stronger-than-expected rise in core CPI to 2.5% yoy and the acceleration in services inflation to 3.5% yoy have effectively cemented expectations for a 25 basis point ECB rate hike next week. For now, that
Markets enter the new week balancing two major uncertainties: whether a proposed US-Iran ceasefire extension can evolve into a formal agreement, and whether incoming economic data will push the Federal Reserve closer toward another rate hike. Last week, investors aggressively embraced the peace trade. Oil prices collapsed, Treasury yields retreated, and equities surged as markets
EUR/CAD extended its near term rally today as increasingly hawkish rhetoric from senior European Central Bank officials continued pushing markets toward pricing a June rate hike, while falling oil prices added renewed pressure on Canadian Dollar. The pair resumed its rebound from 1.5941 and is now approaching the key 1.6148 resistance zone, with broader momentum
Global financial markets remain trapped in a tense but directionless pattern as investors struggle to price a US-Iran conflict that is neither escalating into full confrontation nor moving convincingly toward resolution. Brent crude continues hovering near USD 105 after another volatile week, while US 10-year Treasury yields remain comfortably above 4.5%. Equities are largely drifting
EUR/CAD has remained trapped in a broad sideways range after rebounding to 1.6247 in early April, with neither Euro nor Canadian Dollar able to establish a convincing directional advantage. The pair’s hesitation reflects a market caught between fading oil-driven momentum on the CAD side and uncertainty over how aggressively ECB will tighten policy through the
The sharp rise in US Treasury yields remains one of the dominant macro themes in global markets this week, with the 10-year yield climbing back to 4.62% after only a brief pullback yesterday, near its highest level in more than a year. While markets continue focusing on inflation concerns and expectations for prolonged restrictive Federal
Australian Dollar weakened broadly in the Asian session as renewed selloff in regional equities, disappointing Chinese data, and softer near-term RBA tightening expectations combined to undermine sentiment toward the currency. At the same time, elevated oil prices continued supporting Canadian Dollar, building up the case for the case of a deeper correction in AUD/CAD. Risk
Markets are staying in a cautious holding pattern as investors awaited the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit later this week, increasingly viewing the Beijing meeting as the decisive geopolitical checkpoint for both the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader global trade relations. While financial markets remained relatively calm overall, underlying positioning continued reflecting elevated uncertainty around
Markets entered a temporary holding pattern on today as traders largely refrained from making aggressive geopolitical bets ahead of both US inflation data and Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit. Despite hostile rhetoric surrounding the Iran ceasefire, broader market reactions remained restrained, with investors appearing reluctant to commit strongly in either direction until clearer signals emerge later this
Markets spent last week aggressively chasing the AI-driven equity rally while largely ignoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite renewed uncertainty over a promised peace deal, stocks surged to new records while Dollar weakened broadly on strong risk appetite. S&P 500 followed NASDAQ to fresh records, while Asia’s major technology-heavy benchmarks exploded higher as
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report may be today’s headline event on the economic calendar, but markets are behaving as though the real story lies thousands of miles away in the Strait of Hormuz. For much of the past two days, investors had embraced a growing “peace trade,” betting that Washington and Tehran were moving closer
Dollar is coming under renewed pressure as traders move to lighten long positions ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. The move reflects reluctance among traders to hold long USD exposure into an event that is seen as carrying downside risks for the currency. The outcome of the meeting is largely a foregone conclusion, with
Markets stayed composed in early trading, with oil holding below crisis levels despite renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed toward $105 after US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, yet the absence of panic buying signals that traders are not pricing a full supply shock. Dollar edged higher on the
Loonie weakened as oil prices pulled back, with markets turning cautious while awaiting clarity on ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran. Brent crude easing to the 100 level has triggered a de-risking move in energy-linked assets, removing a key pillar of support for the Canadian Dollar. The move reflects more than just oil price
Markets were steady in Asian session today, with equities posting modest gains led by Japan, as investors showed signs of “war fatigue” amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Despite continued escalation between Iran, Israel and the U.S., price action across major asset classes has become increasingly muted, suggesting that geopolitical risks are not the dominant
