The dominant narrative this week was not that the Federal Reserve became less hawkish—it was that markets became less convinced the Fed would need to become even more hawkish. Early in the week, investors aggressively priced in additional rate hikes after the June FOMC meeting, encouraged by a string of increasingly hawkish forecasts from major […]
Dollar remained firmly in control of global markets today, extending its broad-based rally even as risk sentiment showed tentative signs of stabilization. US equity futures pointed to a modest rebound at the open following this week’s sharp technology-led selloff, as investors appeared reluctant to make aggressive bets ahead of Micron’s earnings report after the bell.
Dollar’s rally gathered further momentum this week as a combination of technology-sector liquidation, quarter-end positioning, and growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening pushed Dollar Index through a critical long-term technical barrier. The move marks one of the most important developments for the currency market in 2026, as the break above the 38.2% retracement of
A week that began with optimism over falling oil prices ended with markets fixated on the prospect of renewed Federal Reserve tightening. The peace dividend from the US-Iran agreement continued to push energy prices lower and helped support risk sentiment. But the bigger story was the Fed’s abrupt shift toward a more hawkish outlook, which
For the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, financial markets can plausibly see a genuine path toward peace. Reports throughout the week indicated that the United States and Iran are closer than at any point since hostilities began to signing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, a framework that would pause fighting,
Markets ended the week in a far more defensive mood than they began it. After spending May climbing steadily on the back of AI enthusiasm, resilient economic growth, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions, investors were suddenly forced to confront three separate risks at once. A sharp correction in technology stocks, renewed concerns that US
The dominant story across financial markets last week was not artificial intelligence, central banks, or economic data. It was a dramatic shift in expectations regarding the future of the US-Iran conflict. Investors increasingly embraced the view that the three-month war is moving toward a diplomatic resolution after reports emerged that negotiators had drafted a 60-day
For a few weeks in February and March, currency strategists watched what looked like a controlled experiment. As military conflict engulfed the Middle East, oil ripped from $65 to $112, equities sold off, and the US dollar rallied. By any textbook reading of the dollar smile, the currency had behaved exactly as the script demanded.
Global financial markets entered a far more dangerous macro phase last week as the underwhelming Trump-Xi summit failed to deliver meaningful progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or easing broader geopolitical tensions. Instead of calming investors, the summit reinforced fears that the global economy may now be entering a prolonged period of structurally higher
Markets spent last week aggressively chasing the AI-driven equity rally while largely ignoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite renewed uncertainty over a promised peace deal, stocks surged to new records while Dollar weakened broadly on strong risk appetite. S&P 500 followed NASDAQ to fresh records, while Asia’s major technology-heavy benchmarks exploded higher as
Dollar’s inability to hold onto last week’s gains is emerging as a key signal that the broader trend may be turning lower again. While the greenback initially found some support on headlines of stalled US–Iran talks, the move quickly lost momentum as markets shifted focus to ceasefire extensions and renewed diplomatic efforts. The reaction suggests
The market narrative has flipped again—and the stakes are rising. The abrupt shift in the Strait of Hormuz—from briefly “open” to once again under strict military control within 24 hours—has underscored just how fragile the current ceasefire is. What initially looked like the beginning of de-escalation has quickly reverted to uncertainty, forcing investors to reassess
The dollar do-si-do: hedgers review FX moves – FX Markets Skip to main content End of drawer navigation content Brief return of US dollar to safe-haven status amid Iran upheaval prompts real money investors to pause hedging activity If investors and traders have learnt one lesson during the presidencies of Donald J Trump, it’s that
Attention is firmly on Islamabad as the United States and Iran begin their first high-level talks since the onset of war, with markets looking for signs of a breakthrough that could evolve into a broader Islamabad Accord. The outcome would be as a defining moment for energy markets, inflation, and global risk sentiment, with delegations
In times of uncertainty, when screens are whipsawing between red and green, pockets of opportunity can be hard to come by, and quickly wiped out. A month after the US and Israel began their military action in Iran, conflicting political messages mean clear trends have been few and far between. Markets have been at the mercy
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, pushing yields lower. This time,
Dollar had every reason to rally last week, but instead ended as the worst performer among major currencies. Sharp selloff in global equities, surging Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks would typically trigger strong safe-haven demand for the greenback. Yet, that relationship broke down. The key driver behind this anomaly is the growing divergence in
